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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK area - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous summary - JAN 2015 data
Current issue

Summary of internationally available experimental Seasonal Forecasts for UK and Eire for 1 and 3 month periods

Updated 270215. Main updates are noted on Twitter @T2mike


This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest

Comment 200215 - In the mid Feb comparison (nino 3.4) most of the models go for a warmer solution. CPC consensus and statical go cooler.
The new UKMO also forecast a reduction in sea temp (UK forecast runs to mid June only)

Click for El NINO info


FEB data awaited from the GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES

All expected data available.

NOTE UKMO climate model change and ENDGAME UKMO Notice


Sites with no data
Russia WEB SITE not WORKING 020215 ok again 140215
USA - FSU GSM COAPS seasonal anoms WEB SITE NOT UPDATING since AUG2014


CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 00Z on date shown



SEASONAL FORECAST
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).



MAR APR MAY 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Summary 240218 - models have not been good at picking out colder events and a colder spring remains a possibility but the main signal is for near normal temps and near normal PPN - although perhaps a little below normal is possible especially in S/SE. Several models suggest above normal pressure in the S.
Comment 150215 - JMA and UKMO hint at slightly above normal pressure. JMA still hints at slightly colder spring though most others do not.
Comment 120215 - normal or above normal temps most likely except in W (mainly in Eire) due to cooler than normal Atlantic Sea Temps.


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 260215
TEMP: Season: normal
MAR above normal but N Ireland, Eire and N Scotland normal APR normal MAY normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in W Scotland and NW England
MAR below normal in S and above normal in NW APR normal but below in E England MAY above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 160215
TEMP: Season: normal
MAR normal APR normal MAY normal JUN normal JUL normal but Scotland above normal AUG normal
PPN: Season: normal
MAR Below normal but normal in far N and W APR normal MAY mostly above normal but normal in N and E Scotland and NE England JUN W Scotland, NW England and W/SW Eire above normal E and SE England below normal elsewhere normal JUL NW Scotland below normal Midlands S and SW England above normal elsewhere normal AUG SE England above normal N England, SW Scotland and far N Scotland below normal elswhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080215
TEMP: Season: normal
MAR normal but N Scotland above APR normal MAY normal but midlands and Scotland above normal
PPN: Season: normal but wetter in W Eire and W Midlands
MAR below normal APR normal but above normal for Eire Highland Scotland, Wales, W Midlands and SW England MAY above normal but normal for N Ireland and N / NE Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 020215
TEMP: Season: normal
MAR normal APR normal MAY normal
PPN: Season: above normal but normal for N Eire/N Ireland, N and E Scotland and NE/E of England
MAR N Scotland below normal mostly normal but above normal for S and SW Eire S Wales and SW England APR above normal MAY above normal but normal for N half Scotland and NE/E of England


Korea APCC - 270513
Temp: Season normal perhaps slightly above in E of England
MAR slightly above normal APR normal MAY normal
PPN : Season normal but risk above normal in S
MAR normal but risk above normal in S APR normal MAY normal


USA - IRI - 200215 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: mostly above normal but S and SE Eire also SW England minimal sinal 40% of above normal. Highest probs NW Scotland.
PPN : normal but hint at drier towards SE of UK


UKMO COntingency 190215
TEMP: MARCH: near normal most likely. Slightly reduced chance of well below normal
SEASON: near normal most likely - slightly shift to above normal compared to average of overall distribution.
PPN:: MARCH: near normal or slightly below most likely (NW/SE split SE with SE drier)
SEASON: near normal perhaps slightly below.

UKMO - 100215 (New model configuration Feb 2015)
TEMP: W Eire more likely to be below normal (Atlantic Sea Temp anomaly). S of England more likely to be normal. NE Scotland and NE/E of England more likely to be normal or above. Slightly enhanced probs for Scotland Wales and England to be well above normal.
PPN : Indication for NW UK to be above normal and Wales, SW UK and S and E Eire and N Ireland to be below normal. Enhanced probs for well above normal W and NW Scotland and for well below normal across Eire, N Ireland, E Scotland, Wales, SW England and W Midlands.
PSML: Eire, Wales and S England more likely to be above normal. Enhanced probs for well above normal over UK especially W Eire.


BCC China - 170215 - 48 member ENS start data 010215
TEMP: Season: England and Wales slightly below normal elsewhere slightly above normal
PPN: Season: slightly above except far N Scotland slightly below


Japan JMA 150215
Temp: Season slightly below normal
MAR slightly below normal APR slightly below but Scotland slightly above MAY Eire slightly below but elsewhere slightly above
PPN : Season slightly below normal but far S Eire and SW England may be slghtly above
MAR lightly below normal but far S Eire and SW England may be slghtly above APR S Scotland N ENgland N Ireland and Eire slightly above elsewhere slightly below MAY N slightly above S slightly below
PMSL: Season slightly above except in far SW
MAR slightly above in N slightly below in S but far SW below normal APR slightly above MAY slightly above


Russia delayed but available 140215 - largely dominated by sea temps colder than normal area Mid N Atlantic, similar to other centres output.
Temp: SW England above normal but elsewhere similar probs for above/normal/below
PPN : No strong signal but hints at above normal SW England, NW Scotland and far E of England.


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 050215
TEMP: Season normal or slightly below in far SE and far W
MAR normal but Scotland slightly below APR normal but below normal for Eire, S Wales and S of England MAY normal but below normal for Eire, N Ireland, W Scotland, Wales, SW and S England.
PPN : Season normal
MAR normal APR normal but below in SE Scotland and NE Engand MAY normal


Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes - 090215
Temp: near normal but NE Scotland above
PPN : Normal but slightly above in SW Eire and SE England
PMSL: below normal
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: normal
PPN : normal but SW Eire above


The US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) is an experimental multi-model seasonal forecasting system consisting of coupled models from US modeling centers including NOAA/NCEP, NOAA/GFDL, NCAR, NASA, and Canada's CMC. See - the BAMS article describing the project ( Kirtman et al. 2014) . NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.
USA Seasonal combined ensemble NMME : Anomaly ranges for CFS2 different from CPC web.

Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 080215
TEMP: SEASON: Eire uncertain elsewhere above normal.

PPN: SEASON: Above normal for Eire, Wales and southern half of England.



Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 080215
Coldest models NASA GEOS5 and GFDL FLOR
TEMP: SEASON: West UK and Eire near normal eastern areas slightly above normal.

PPN: SEASON: no signal

CFS2 and NMME test graphics due 080215
CFS2 MAX MIN





CFS2 TEMP



CFS2 PPN



NMME MAX and MIN




NMME TEMP:



NMME PPN:





APR MAY JUN 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Summary - 270215 TEMPS: normal or slightly above normal temps but risk of some western areas being slightly below. Above normal more likely in S and E of UK. PPN: Uncertain but chance of drier in S early in period then near normal. NW may be wtter.
Comment - 160215 Consensus for risk of lower than normal temps in W, mainly Eire. PPN lacks consistency some hints at below normal in places from UKMO but above normal in CFS.


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 260215
TEMP: Season: normal
APR normal MAY normal JUN normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in SW England , NW England and most of Scotland
APR normal but below in E England MAY above normal JUN normal but above in SW England S and E Eire NW England and S and central Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 160216
TEMP: Season: normal
APR normal MAY normal JUN normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in Eire and W and SW Scotland
APR normal MAY mostly above normal but normal in N and E Scotland and NE England JUN W Scotland, NW England and W/SW Eire above normal E and SE England below normal elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080215
TEMP: Season: normal
APR normal MAY normal but midlands and Scotland above normal JUN normal
PPN: Season: above normal but normal for N and E Scotland and NE/E/SE of England
APR normal but above normal for Eire, Highland Scotland, Wales, W Midlands and SW England MAY above normal but normal for N Ireland and N / NE Scotland JUN normal but above in W Scotland SW Eire and SW England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 020215
TEMP: Season: normal
APR normal MAY normal JUN normal
PPN: Season: normal but above normal NW England/NW Midlands and SW England
APR above normal MAY above normal but normal for N half Scotland and NE/E of England JUN Normal but below normal for Eire, Midlands and parts of S Wales and SW England.



USA - IRI - 200215 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: above normal lowest probs 50%. Highest probs NW Scotland.
PPN : normal


UK - 100215 (New model configuration Feb 2015)
TEMP: Eire more likely to be normal or below normal (especially in W). Most of England (excet SW and NW) more likely to be above normal with enhanced probs for well above normal. Elsewhere mostly normal.
PPN : normal or below normal but enhanced probs for well above normal across NE Scotland and well below normal for S of UK W Scotland, N Ireland and Eire.
PSML: Above normal more likely than below with enhanced probs for well above normal.


BCC China - 170215 - 48 member ENS start data 010215
TEMP: Season: slightly above normal
PPN: Season: slightly above normal


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 050215
TEMP: Season normal but slightly below in Eire and S of England
APR normal but below normal for Eire, S Wales and S of England MAY normal but below normal for Eire, N Ireland, W Scotland, Wales, SW and S England. JUN normal but below for Eire, NE Scotland and S England
PPN : Season normal
APR normal but below in SE Scotland and NE Engand MAY normal JUN normal but below in far NW Scotland



MAY JUN JUL 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 260215
TEMP: Season: normal
MAY normal JUN normal JUL normal
PPN: Season: above normal but normal for Midlands Wales N Ireland and Eire except the E
MAY above normal JUN normal but above in SW England S and E Eire NW England and S and central Scotland JUL normal but above in NW Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 160216
TEMP: Season: normal
MAY normal JUN normal JUL normal but Scotland above normal
PPN: Season: normal but above normal for central Midlands SW and W central Scotland and W Eire
MAY mostly above normal but normal in N and E Scotland and NE England JUN W Scotland, NW England and W/SW Eire above normal E and SE England below normal elsewhere normal JUL NW Scotland below normal Midlands S and SW England above normal elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080215
TEMP: Season: normal
MAY normal but midlands and Scotland above normal JUN normal JUL normal
PPN: Season: normal but wetter in SW Eire, SW Scotland Midlands and NW England
MAY above normal but normal for N Ireland and N / NE Scotland JUN normal but above in W Scotland SW Eire and SW England JUL normal but SW England and SE Eire drier but midlands and SW Scotland wetter.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 020215
TEMP: Season: normal
MAY normal JUN normal JUL normal
PPN: Season: normal
MAY above normal but normal for N half Scotland and NE/E of England JUN Normal but below normal for Eire, Midlands and parts of S Wales and SW England. JUL normal but below normal W Scotland and SE Eire and above normal Midlands.



USA - IRI - 200215 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: above normal lowest probs 45% SE UK. Highest probs NW Scotland and NW Eire at over 70%.
PPN : normal


UK - 100215 (New model configuration Feb 2015) - model retains colder than normal Atlantic Temps W of UK which may be incorrect by mid June.
TEMP: Normal but W more likely to be below normal. England especially SE England has enhanced probs for well above normal.
PPN : W and S of UK (includes W Scotland) probs favour below normal, elsewhere normal. Enhnaced probs for well above normal in far N Scotland also E Scotland and NE England. Enhanced probs for well below normal over most of Eire,N Ireland Central and W Scotland Wales and S of England.
PSML: Enhance dprobs for well above normal across SW half of UK and also across Eire.


BCC China - 170215 - 48 member ENS start data 010215
TEMP: Season: slightly below normal except NE Scotland
PPN: Season: slightly above normal


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 050215
TEMP: Season normal but slightly below in far W
MAY normal but below normal for Eire, N Ireland, W Scotland, Wales, SW and S England. JUN normal but below for Eire, NE Scotland and S England JUL normal but Scotland above and SE England below
PPN : Season normal
MAY normal JUN normal but below in far NW Scotland JUL normal but below in SE Scotland



SUMMER JUN JUL AUG 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Summary - 270215 - Near normal temps, some warm spells. Slightly unsettled summer with mixed ppn signal.
Comment - 170215 - BCC China hints at less warm later in summer also supports slightly wetter than normal mainly later in Summer.
Comment - 080215 - Near normal or slightly warmer than average. Hints at wetter than normal IN NW and perhaps elsewhere in August so probably a changeable type early in summer period.


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 260215
TEMP: Season: normal
JUN normal JUL normal AUG normal
PPN: Season: normal but locally above in W Scotland
JUN normal but above in SW England S and E Eire NW England and S and central Scotland JUL normal but above in NW Scotland AUG normal but above in NW/W Scotland N/W Eire and W of N Ireland also parts of NW England
USA - NCEP CFS2 - 160216
TEMP: Season: normal
JUN normal JUL normal but Scotland above normal AUG normal
PPN: Season: normal but central lowlands of Scotland above and perhaps W Eire/Shannon area
JUN W Scotland, NW England and W/SW Eire above normal E and SE England below normal elsewhere normal JUL NW Scotland below normal Midlands S and SW England above normal elsewhere normal AUG SE England above normal N England, SW Scotland and far N Scotland below normal elswhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080215
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal but wetter in W Eire and SW Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 020215
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal but below normal W Scotland S Eire and parts of Wales


Korea APCC - 270215 Atlantic SST cold anomaly warmed out after June.
Temp: Season normal perhaps slightly above
JUN normal JUL normal AUG normal
PPN : Season normal
JUN normal but risk below normal in NW JUL normal but risk above normal in NW AUG normal


USA - IRI - 200215 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: above normal lowest probs 40% SE Eire and Sussex area. Highest probs NW Scotland 60% plus.
PPN : normal


BCC China - 170215 - 48 member ENS start data 010215
TEMP: Season: slightly below normal for England and Wales elsewhere slightly above
PPN: Season: slightly above normal


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 050215
TEMP: Season normal but slightly below in far W
JUN normal but below for Eire, NE Scotland and S England JUL normal but Scotland above and SE England below AUG below normal but normal for Midlands and E/SE England.
PPN : Season normal
JUN normal but below in far NW Scotland JUL normal but below in SE Scotland AUG normal


NMME 080215
TEMP: above normal
PPN: W Eire above normal, SW England below normal elsewhere similar probs for above/normal/below.

IMME 080215
TEMP: W Eire near normal elsewhere above normal
PPN: No signal


CFS2 MAX MIN 080215





CFS2 TEMP



CFS2 PPN



NMME TEMP: 080215



NMME PPN:







Autumn SEP OCT NOV 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



BCC China - 170215 - 48 member ENS start data 010215
TEMP: Season: S slightly below or normal elsewhere slightly above normal
PPN: Season: near normal hint at slightly below


NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normals is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR – 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE. with the the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

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