SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE

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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK and Eire area - updated as new data becomes available. Previous summary - November 2017 data

Summary of experimental Seasonal Forecasts for the UK and Eire



Updated 271217(ddmmyy). Typically updated on Thursday/Friday. Main updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike

This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest


Nino 3.4 (plots as available): CFS2 updated daily. NMME Nino 3.4. UKMO Tropical N Atlantic plot and NAO. Click image for details.

ENSO NMME comparison UKMO Tropical N Atlantic

ENSO CFS latest


Data awaited from GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES
FINAL data fopr this momth 271217


Data sources available on date: USA - NCEP CFS2 (011217, 051217, 121217, 191217, 261217), Russia still no data 111217, CanSips 301117, US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and NMME and CFS2 graphics 071217, USA NASA GMAO GSFC 081217, Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS) 111217, UKMO seasonal, KMA 131217, ECMWF monthly (new), BCC China 141217, CopernicusEU MME (UKMO MereoFr ECMWF) 151217, JAMSTEC 151217, International IMME 151217, USA - IRI 151217, Japan JMA 151217, UKMO Contingency 181217, Korea APCC 271217, South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) LRF 271217.
Data received after summary written.


CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 00Z on date shown
Perth Birmingham
Exeter London

SEASONAL FORECAST
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).



For an attempt at regional detail for SW England click here after about the 20th



2018 JAN FEB MAR
Summary - 16Dec2017 -
Strong signal for above normal. Some variations; from near normal and a minority below normal in far N to well above normal in the south. Most systems have each month above normal although anomalies in March less strong and hints that it may be colder than normal later in the month?. Rainfall signal is also for above normal for the season perhaps especially so in January and less so in March for central and sotuhern parts. Above normal strongest signal in SW third of UK and parts of Eire transferring to northern parts later in season. March less wet espeically in S and E. Signal for below normal pressure which is required for milder wetter regime.
Hint of caution stratospheric warming is occuring over Canada and may impact on the weather patterns later inthe season. Not yet sure 1. whether reversal of stratospheric winds will occur towards UK area leading to more blocked patterns (could be anticyclonic or cyclonic in UK area) or 2. the polar stratospheric vortex will be warmed out very early or 3.votex will re-develop.



Statistical relationship (IRI) for precipuitation during La Nina.
IRI climate impacts for La Nina.


CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
TN3 TN7 TN2

TN6 TN8 TN5


NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days. 100KM resolution output. Anomalies wrt 1999-2010 hindcast climatology. (Normal is +/-0.5C from model hindcast mean).


USA - NCEP CFS2 -261217
TEMP: Season: above normal but well above in S
JAN above or well above normal FEB well above normal MAR bove normal
PPN: Season: above normal or well above in W
JAN above or well above normal FEB above or well above normal MAR E of UK normal elsewhere above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 191217
TEMP: Season: above normal especially in S of UK
JAN Eire, N Ireland and N Scotland normal elsewhere above FEB above but England and Wales well above MAR bove but Scotland, England and Wales well above
PPN: Season: above normal
JAN N Scotland and N Ireland normal, far N below, elsewhere above especially in S FEB above normal except NE England normal MAR above normal especially in N

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 121217
TEMP: Season: above normal but in S well above
JAN Wales and S half England above elsewhere normal FEB above or well above normal MAR above and in S well above normal
PPN: Season: above normal
JAN N Scotland normal elsewhere above FEB above locally normal in NE England MAR above locally normal in NE/E England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 051217
TEMP: Season: Scotland and N Ireland normal elsewhere above
JAN above normal but N Scotland normal FEB N Ireland, Scotland and N England normal elsewhere above MAR normal but Midlands and SE England above normal
PPN: Season: above normal
JAN Above or well above FEB SE Ireland NE Scotland and NE England normal elsewhere above MAR above normal but Eire, N Irerland NE Scotland SE England normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011217
TEMP: Season: above normal
JAN above normal but well above in S FEB above normal MAR normal but Wales and S England above normal
PPN: Season: above normal
JAN above normal FEB normal locally above in NW Scotland and SW England MAR normal locally above in N England and S/SW Scotland





SAWS ECHAM4.5 30 member ensemble. - 271217
Temps season: above normal
PPN season: above normal

SAWS operational 40 member ensemble. - 271217 data 10 Dec 2017
Temps season: above normal
PPN season: above normal




Korea APCC - 270513
Temp: Season above normal
JAN above normal FEB above normal MAR above normal
PPN : Season above normal
JAN England and Wales above normal elsewhere no signal FEB above normal MAR no signal hint of drier to S?




UKMO Contingency 181217
TEMP:
JAN: UKMO above more likely than below but allowing for a cold spell in month. Analysis: Large spread of solutions slightly shifted to above normal but with two small clusters one slightly below the other above normal but also signs of a chance of well above normal. Median value looks close to normal.
SEASON: UKMO Above more likely than below. Analysis: Distribution shifted above or well above normal. Three clusters one below and two above or well above normal, split roughly 25% below normal 60% above otherwise near normal
PPN:
UKMO "For January, and January-February-March as a whole, above-average precipitation is more likely than below-average precipitation. The likelihood of impacts from heavy rainfall and high winds is greater than usual".
JAN: Analysis: Although there are more solutions than usual in the much wetter than norml there is also an increase in numbers in the slgihtly below normal range. Two clusters the largest one shows slightly below normal and the other well above normal so it is not clear cut that January will be wetter for all of UK.
SEASON: Analysis: Distribution shifted to above normal with median value well above normal. roughly 30/70 split drier/wetter hence main signal is for wetter than normal.


Japan JMA -151217 -(June 2015 - 51 member ensemble accumulated (13+13+13+12) over 15 days run 5 days apart at 110km resolution)
Temp: Season above normal
JAN above normal FEB above normal MAR above normal
PPN : Season above normal
JAN above normal FEB above normal MAR S Eire below elsewhere above normal
PMSL: Season below normal (SW)
JAN below normal (SW) FEB well below normal (SW) MAR above normal (WSW)



From APRIL 2017 output based on recalibrated NMME. Individual models and probs of non/exceedance for selectable values available from map room.
IRI multi-model ensemble information
USA - IRI - 151217 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: no signal
PPN : above normal



Copernicus C3S multi model ensemble -
UQ=upper quintile LQ=lower quintile, UT/MT/LT= upper/middle/lower tercile.
TEMP: Far N normal elsewhere above especially S of England. 40-50% prob UQ in SW.
PPN: above normal, especially W Wales, NW England and SW Scotland but NE Scotland and NE England no signal
PMSL: Below normal changce well below
ECMWF 51 members 345 climate size -
TEMP: N normal elsewhere above, 30-40% prob UQ in SW and W UK and Eire.
PPN: above normal but N Scotland no signal
PMSL: Below normal changce well below
UKMO 50 members 276 climate size -
TEMP: High probs above normal and 50-60% for UQ in S
PPN: ABove normal locally no signal N and E Scotland and NE England
PMSL: Below normal changce well below
METEO FRANCE 51 members 330 climate size -
TEMP: N normal elsewhere above, 30-40% prob UQ in England and Wales.
PPN: above normal especially N Ireland, Wales and NW England
PMSL: Below normal changce well below



http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en
jamstec.go.jp Hindcasts 1983 to 2006
JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (9-member ensemble) - 151217
Temp: Season: Above normal but Eire normal
PPN : Season: Above normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m Second generation coupled model. 24 members. Atmospheric component is BCC_AGCM2.2 at T106 horizontal resolution (about 1 degree) and 26 vertical layer.
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 141217 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
JAN N below S above FEB above normal MAR above normal
PPN: Season: above normal
JAN above normal FEB above normal MAR above normal locally below in W Eire




ECMWF - monthly - 141217 - data from Weather US
TEMP:
JAN S of England slightly above normal elsewhere normal (+/- 0.5F) FEB mostly slightly above normal MAR mostly slightly above normal
PPN:
JAN NW Scotland below elsewhere above, largest anomaly SW Wales FEB far N Scotland below elsewhere above MAR far N Scotland below elsewhere above
PMSL:
JAN below or well beloww normal especially near and WSW of UK/Eire FEB SE above NW Below MAR NW normal elsewhere above



Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5), joint seasonal forecasting system with UK Met Office. Atmosphere and land surface resolution is 0.833×0.556. Grid spacing ocean and sea-ice models is about 0.25. Model top is about 85 km to resolve the interaction between troposphere and stratosphere.
KMA - 131217 - .
TEMP :Season Above normal slightly less so in NW
JAN Above normal FEB Above normal MAR Above normal
PPN :Season Season NE Scotland noral elsewhere above, strongest signal SW Eire, Wales, SW Midlands and SW England
JAN N/NE Scotland normal elsewhere above FEB far N Scotlamnd normal elsewhere above MAR normal
PMSL : Below normal strongest signal in the NW
JAN Below normal strongest signal in the NW FEB Below normal strong signal MAR normal but slightly below in far N and slightly above in far SW UK and far S Eire.



UKMO - (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg (50km) resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks 85 levels 75 ocean levels - 14 year hindcast 1996-2009)
UKMO - 121217 - UT/LT Upper/Lower tircile UQ/LQ upper/lower quintile
TEMP: Above normal most likely. Prob for above normal 60-80%, in UT 40-60%, UQ 40-55%
PPN : Above normal most likely. Prob above median 40 to 60% but central abnd NW Scotland, S Eire, Wales, W and SW England 60-80%. UT 40 to 60% but some eastern areas 20 to 40%. LT 20 to40% except W facing areas lower probs. UQ 25-40%.
PSML: Near normal in S elsewhere below esoecially to N.



Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes - 111217
Temp: above normal
PPN : near normal
PMSL: below normal
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: near normal but slightly above in Scotland, S and W Wales and SW UK
PPN : near normal
PMSL:



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 081217 new layout on website no seasons just monthly
TEMP:
JAN slightly above normal FEB slightly above normal (0 to +2C anom) MAR slightly above normal
PPN : Season
JAN S UK slightly below elsewhere slightly above FEB SW England bbelow elsewhere above MAR slightly above


Meteorological Service of Canada, CanSIPS forecasts are based on a 10-member ensemble of forecasts produced with each of two CCCma climate models for a total ensemble size of 20. Hindcast period 1981 to 2010. CanSips is included in the NMME.
CanSips 301117
TEMP:
JAN above normal FEB above normal MAR above normal
PPN :
JAN above normal but N Scotlnd normal FEB normal but below normal in N Scotland N Ireland Eire S Wales and all S of England MAR above normal but normal in SE England Eire N Ireland andmost of Scotland except far S.



Russia 011217
Temp: missing (but note DJF has colder signal especially in N)
PPN : missing



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 071217
See graphics below for monthly variation.
TEMP: season - above normal - all models in ensemble are above normal

PPN: season - normal but above in S and W UK and Eire. CMC1 and W near normal others above



Indication from Internatinal Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 151217
TEMP: season - Above normal
JAN Above normal FEB Above normal MAR Above normal
PPN rate: season - SW England and Eire above elsewhere normal
JAN Eire and SW UK above elsewhere normal FEB Eire and SW UK above elsewhere normal MAR normal locall above in NW Scotland



Graphics 071217
CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP

TX TX TX

TN TN TN

CFS2 TEMP

T T T

CFS2 PPN

P P P


NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME TEMP:

T T T



NMME PPN rate:

P P P


NMME TEMP PROBS:

T T T

NMME PPN:
P P P



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P
200hPa height anomaly CFS2 with mean CFS2 200hPa data 1 deg grib

200




2018 FEB MAR APR



USA - NCEP CFS2 -261217
TEMP: Season: above normal
FEB well above normal MAR bove normal APR normal but above normal in S
PPN: Season: above normal but normal in SE England and NE Scotland
FEB above or well above normal MAR E of UK normal elsewhere above APR normal but above in N Scotland, Wales and Midlands

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 191217
TEMP: Season: above normal especially in S
FEB above but England and Wales well above MAR bove but Scotland, England and Wales well above APR N Scotland normal elsewhere above
PPN: Season: E of England normal elsewhere above normal
FEB above normal except NE England normal MAR above normal especially in N APR Midlands and S England below elsehere normal .

USA - NCEP CFS2 -121217
TEMP: Season: above but well above in S
FEB above or well above normal MAR above and in S well above normal APR above normal
PPN: Season: above normnal but E half England normal
FEB above locally normal in NE England MAR above locally normal in NE/E England APR NE Scotland, Wales and S half England normal elsewhere above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 051217
TEMP: Season: above normal but NE Scotland normal
FEB N Ireland, Scotland and N England normal elsewhere above MAR normal but Midlands and SE England above normal APR above normal
PPN: Season: Normal locally above in NW Scotland
FEB SE Ireland NE Scotland and NE England normal elsewhere above MAR above normal but Eire, N Irerland NE Scotland SE England normal APR N Scotland normal elsewhere below or well below normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011217
TEMP: Season: above normal
FEB above normal MAR normal but Wales and S England above normal APR above normal
PPN: Season: normal but below in S of Eire
FEB normal locally above in NW Scotland and SW England MAR normal locally above in N England and S/SW Scotland APR below normal but N Scotland normal



USA - IRI - 151217 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: no signal
PPN : England and Wales above normal, Eire N half of Scotland below normal elsewherre no signal



Copernicus C3S multi model ensemble -
UQ=upper quintile LQ=lower quintile, UT/MT/LT= upper/middle/lower tercile.
TEMP: above normal especially S of England. 40-50% prob UQ in SW.
PPN: NE Scotland and NE England no signal elsewhere above
PMSL: Chance below normal in N and Eire
ECMWF 51 members 345 climate size -
TEMP: E Scotland and E/NE England normal elsewhere above, 50-60% prob in S/SW Uk and Eire
PPN: Above normal especially S Scotland (N Isles below)
PMSL: Chance below normal in NW
UKMO 50 members 276 climate size -
TEMP: High probs above normal and 50-60% for UQ in most places
PPN: PMSL: Chance below normal in N
METEO FRANCE 51 members 330 climate size -
TEMP: N/NW below normal, SW Uk above elsewhere normal.
PPN: mostly no signal locally above near W coasts UK
PMSL: Chance below normal in NW




BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 141217 -
TEMP:
FEB above normal MAR above normal APR above normal
PPN:
FEB above normal MAR above normal locally below in W Eire APR Eire and N Ireland above elsewhere below




UKMO - 121217 - UT/LT Upper/Lower tircile UQ/LQ upper/lower quintile
TEMP: Above normal most likely. Prob for above normal SW 80 to 100% NE 60-80%. UT 60-80% but lower in N, UQ 40-55%
PPN : Above normal most likely. Prob above median 60 to 80% but SW and SE Scotland, N Eire and NE England 40-60%. UT 40 to 60% but far N Scotland 20 to 40%. LT 20 to40%. UQ 25-40%, locallt 40-55% SW Scotland, SW England and Liverpool area.
PSML: Near normal in S elsewhere below especially over Scotland.



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 081217 new layout on website no seasons just monthly
TEMP:
FEB slightly above normal (0 to +2C anom) MAR slightly above normal APR slightly below normal
PPN : Season
FEB SW England bbelow elsewhere above MAR slightly above APR slightly above


CanSips 301117
TEMP:
FEB above normal MAR above normal APR above normal
PPN :
FEB normal but below normal in N Scotland N Ireland Eire S Wales and all S of England MAR above normal but normal in SE England Eire N Ireland andmost of Scotland except far S. APR below normal but normal in SW England and Scotland





2018 MAR APR MAY

Summary - 16Dec2017
For the season overall temperatures are likely to be above average but there are indicationas of colder spells in both March and May. Only the French output and BCC China have colder than normal. Parts of the South may again be well above normal for periods. Rainfall indications are mixed with near normal for the season but some signals for drier than normal periods offsetting the above normal periods. Chance that the N/NW and far S are above normal with central and eastern areas less likely to be above normal.



CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN2 TN3 TN7

TN5 TN6 TN8





USA - NCEP CFS2 -261217
TEMP: Season: normal but above in S
MAR above normal APR normal but above normal in S MAY normal
PPN: Season: above normal
MAR E of UK normal elsewhere above APR normal but above in N Scotland, Wales and Midlands MAY locally normal in S Eire, Wales and N Scotland elsewhere above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 191217
TEMP: Season: above normal
MAR above but Scotland, England and Wales well above APR N Scotland normal elsewhere above MAY normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in Central and W Scotland, N Ireland and Eire
MAR above normal especially in N APR Midlands and S England below elsehere normal MAY normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 -121217
TEMP: Season: above normal
MAR above and in S well above normal APR above normal MAY normal locally above in SE England
PPN: Season: normal but above in Eire and SW/W Scotland
MAR above locally normal in NE/E England APR NE Scotland, Wales and S half England normal elsewhere above MAY normal but below in E Scotland and E England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 051217
TEMP: Season: Above normal but normal in NE Scotland and NE England
MAR normal but Midlands and SE England above normal APR above normal MAY normal
PPN: Season: normal locally below in SW Eire
MAR above normal but Eire, N Irerland NE Scotland SE England normal APR N Scotland normal elsewhere below or well below normal MAY normal but SW Eire and central Scotland below normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011217
TEMP: Season:
MAR normal but Wales and S England above normal APR above normal MAY normal
PPN: Season: normal but below in EIre and SW England
MAR normal locally above in N England and S/SW Scotland APR below normal but N Scotland normal MAY normal but above in Midlands and below in N and W Eire, N Ireland and S Scotland



USA - IRI - 151217 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: no signal
PPN : N and E Engand below normal elsewhere no signal



Copernicus C3S multi model ensemble -
UQ=upper quintile LQ=lower quintile, UT/MT/LT= upper/middle/lower tercile.
TEMP: N normal elsewhere above especially SW of England.
PPN: normal but above in SW England N Wales NW England and SW/W Scotland
PMSL: no signal
ECMWF 51 members 345 climate size -
TEMP: England and Wales above, elsewhere normal.
PPN: Normal but above in all W and NW areas
PMSL: Chance below normal in N
UKMO 50 members 276 climate size -
TEMP: High probs above normal and 50-60% for UQ in S
PPN: Normal but above in all W areas
PMSL: Chance below normal
METEO FRANCE 51 members 330 climate size -
TEMP: SE England below normal elsewhere normal
PPN: Eire and S Uk below elsewhere no signal. Split signal UQ/LQ similar probs in SW elsewhere LQ in S.
PMSL: Chance above normal



http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en
jamstec.go.jp Hindcasts 1983 to 2006
JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (9-member ensemble) - 151217
Temp: Season: below normal
PPN : Season: Normal locally above in SW England and Eire




BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 141217 -
TEMP: Season: slightly above normal
MAR above normal APR above normal MAY N/NE belopw S/SW above
PPN: Season: Scotland below elsewhere above
MAR above normal locally below in W Eire APR Eire and N Ireland above elsewhere below MAY England above elsewhere below




ECMWF - monthly - 141217 - data from Weather US
TEMP:
MAR mostly slightly above normal APR N Eire, N Ireland, N England and Scotland near normal elsewhere slightly above MAY normal
PPN:
MAR far N Scotland below elsewhere above APR mostly above but far SE and SW ENgland, S and W Eire and N Scotland normal MAY Midlands, Eire normal or below, elsewhere above mostly in N but locally far SE England too.
PMSL:
MAR NW normal elsewhere above APR below normal MAY N below elsewhere normal




UKMO - 121217 - UT/LT Upper/Lower tircile UQ/LQ upper/lower quintile
TEMP: Above normal most likely. Prob for above normal SW Eire, Wales and SW UK 80 to 100% elsewhere 60-80%. UT 60-80% S but N 40-60%, UQ 40-55%
PPN : Above normal most likely. Prob above median 40-60% but 60-80 NW Scotland S EIre NW England. UT 40 to 60% but but similar probs normal/below 20-40%. UQ 25-40% except SE England 5 to 25%. LQ 25-40% SE England.
PSML: Similar probs above/normal/below but slightly favouring below in Eire and S half of UK. LQ 25-40% mainly in N ?



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 081217 new layout on website no seasons just monthly
TEMP:
MAR slightly above normal APR slightly below normal MAY slightly below normal
PPN : Season
MAR slightly above APR slightly above MAY slightly below excet N Ireland and NW Eire slightly above


CanSips 301117
TEMP:
MAR above normal APR above normal MAY above normal
PPN :
MAR above normal but normal in SE England Eire N Ireland andmost of Scotland except far S. APR below normal but normal in SW England and Scotland MAY normal but below in Eire and N Ireland



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 061217
See graphics below for monthly variation.
TEMP: season - above normal. Only NCAR normal rest above

PPN: season - normal. (CFS, CMC1 and 2 have below normal hints in SW and GFDL above normal in S and W UK and Eire, 3 others no strong signals/near normal.)



Indication from Internatinal Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 151117
TEMP: season - Above normal
MAR Above normal APR Above normal MAY normal
PPN rate: season - Normal
MAR Above normal in NW Scotland elsewhere normal APR normal MAY normal



Graphics 071217
CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP

TX TX TX

TN TN TN

CFS2 TEMP

T T T

CFS2 PPN

P P P


NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME TEMP:

T T T



NMME PPN rate:

P P P


NMME TEMP PROBS:

T T T

NMME PPN:
P P P



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P
200hPa height anomaly CFS2 with mean CFS2 200hPa data 1 deg grib

200




2018 APR MAY JUN



USA - NCEP CFS2 -261217
TEMP: Season: normal
APR normal but above normal in S MAY normal JUN normal
PPN: Season: MidlandS N England and Scotland above elsewhere normal
APR normal but above in N Scotland, Wales and Midlands MAY locally normal in S Eire, Wales and N Scotland elsewhere above JUN normal but above in SW England S and W Eire, N England and Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 191217
TEMP: Season: normal but all of the S of England above normal
APR N Scotland normal elsewhere above MAY normal JUN normal
PPN: Season: normal
APR Midlands and S England below elsehere normal MAY normal JUN normal locally below in NW Scotland and W Midlands.

USA - NCEP CFS2 -121217
TEMP: Season: S Eire, Wales and S England above elsewhere normal
APR above normal MAY normal locally above in SE England JUN normal
PPN: Season: normal
APR NE Scotland, Wales and S half England normal elsewhere above MAY normal but below in E Scotland and E England JUN normal but below in Wales Eire N Ireland and W and Central Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 051217
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: normal locally below in S Scotland and N England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011217
TEMP: Season: above normal but NE England normal
PPN: Season: normal




BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 141217 -
TEMP:
APR above normal MAY N/NE belopw S/SW above JUN above normal
PPN:
APR Eire and N Ireland above elsewhere below MAY England above elsewhere below JUN below



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 081217 new layout on website no seasons just monthly
TEMP:
APR slightly below normal MAY slightly below normal JUN below normal (-2 to -4C anom)
PPN : Season
APR slightly above MAY slightly below excet N Ireland and NW Eire slightly above JUN slightly above but central belt Scotland and N Ireland slgihtly below


CanSips 301117
TEMP:
APR above normal MAY above normal JUN above normal
PPN :
APR below normal but normal in SW England and Scotland MAY normal but below in Eire and N Ireland JUN below normal but normal in Cornwall W/SW Eire NW Scotland.





2018 MAY JUN JUL



USA - NCEP CFS2 -261217
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: above normal but normal in SE Eire Wales SW and S England and NE England.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 191217
TEMP: Season: normal but in far S/SE England above normal
PPN: Season: normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 121217
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 051217
TEMP: Season: normal but above in Scotland and S of England
PPN: Season: normal locally above in Midlands and W Eire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011217
TEMP: Season: above normal but NE England normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in Wales and W Midlands and N half Scotland




BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 141217 -
TEMP:
MAY N/NE belopw S/SW above JUN above normal JUL above normal
PPN:
MAY England above elsewhere below JUN below JUL below



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 081217 new layout on website no seasons just monthly
TEMP:
MAY slightly below normal JUN below normal (-2 to -4C anom) JUL slightly below normal
PPN : Season
MAY slightly below excet N Ireland and NW Eire slightly above JUN slightly above but central belt Scotland and N Ireland slgihtly below JUL Scotland slightly below elsewhere slightly above


CanSips 301117
TEMP:
MAY above normal JUN above normal JUL above normal
PPN :
MAY normal but below in Eire and N Ireland JUN below normal but normal in Cornwall W/SW Eire NW Scotland. JUL normal but below in N Ireland N England and Scotland except the NW





2018 JUN JUL AUG

Summary - 12Dec2017 -
Mixed signals above/below normal suggest near normal most likely perhaps colder to start and warmer later in summer. Rainfall again uncertain above/below normal, perhaps above normal in parts of S/SW early in summer.




USA - NCEP CFS2 -261217
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in N Scotland
PPN: Season: normal but above in SW England W Midlands SW and W Scotland and W Eire.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 191217
TEMP: Season: normal but above normal in N Scotland and SE England
PPN: Season: normal



http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en
jamstec.go.jp Hindcasts 1983 to 2006
JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (9-member ensemble) - 151217
Temp: Season: below normal
PPN : Season: Normal locally above in S Eire, SW England and NE Scotland




BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 141217 -
TEMP: Season: Eire and E England slightly below elsewhere slightly above (near normal)
JUN above normal JUL above normal AUG mostly below normal locally above in SW
PPN: Season: Far N Scotland above elsewhere below
JUN below JUL below AUG N Scotland above elsewhere below




USA - NCEP CFS2 - 121217
TEMP: Season: normal but N Scotland above
PPN: Season: normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 081217 new layout on website no seasons just monthly
TEMP:
JUN below normal (-2 to -4C anom) JUL slightly below normal AUG slightly above normal
PPN : Season
JUN slightly above but central belt Scotland and N Ireland slgihtly below JUL Scotland slightly below elsewhere slightly above AUG slightly above


CanSips 301117
TEMP:
JUN above normal JUL above normal AUG above normal
PPN :
JUN below normal but normal in Cornwall W/SW Eire NW Scotland. JUL normal but below in N Ireland N England and Scotland except the NW AUG below normal locally normal W Eire




2018 JUL AUG SEP



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 141217 -
TEMP:
JUL above normal AUG mostly below normal locally above in SW SEP N above normal elsewhere below
PPN:
JUL below AUG N Scotland above elsewhere below SEP S UK above elsewhere below



CanSips 301117
TEMP:
JUL above normal AUG above normal SEP above normal
PPN :
JUL normal but below in N Ireland N England and Scotland except the NW AUG below normal locally normal W Eire SEP normal but above in N Scotland and below in far S Eire S Wales and all S of England





2018 AUG SEP OCT



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 141217 -
TEMP:
AUG mostly below normal locally above in SW SEP N above normal elsewhere below OCT above normal
PPN:
AUG N Scotland above elsewhere below SEP S UK above elsewhere below OCT below



CanSips 301117
TEMP:
AUG above normal SEP above normal OCT above normal
PPN :
AUG below normal locally normal W Eire SEP normal but above in N Scotland and below in far S Eire S Wales and all S of England OCT normal but above in Scotland and N Ireland and below in all S of England





2018 SEP OCT NOV



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 141217 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
SEP N above normal elsewhere below OCT above normal NOV above normal
PPN: Season: England above elsewhere below
SEP S UK above elsewhere below OCT below NOV above but Eire and SW below



CanSips 301117
TEMP:
SEP above normal OCT above normal NOV above normal
PPN :
SEP normal but above in N Scotland and below in far S Eire S Wales and all S of England OCT normal but above in Scotland and N Ireland and below in all S of England NOV normal but below in Eire and N Ireland





2018 OCT NOV DEC



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 141217 -
TEMP:
OCT above normal NOV above normal DEC above normal
PPN:
OCT below NOV above but Eire and SW below DEC Eire and N Ireland below elsewhere above





NOTEs:
1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR – 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data disseminating is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. CMC=Canada Met Center.


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