SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE

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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK area - updated as new data becomes available. Previous summary - November 2016 data

Summary of experimental Seasonal Forecasts for the UK and Eire



Updated 281216 (ddmmyy). Typically updated on Thursdays. Main updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike

This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest


Nino 3.4 IRI probs, NMME plot and CFS2 latest plot. Click image for details.

ENSO probability ENSO NMME ENS Mean
ENSO Comparison ENSO CFS latest


October Data awaited from GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES
Final update with December data next update 5 Jan 2017 Not available South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) LRF.

Data sources available on date: USA - NCEP CFS2 (011216 071216 101216 141216 211216), CanSips 011216, Russia 011216, USA NASA GMAO GSFC 081216, US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) 081216, NMME and CFS2 graphics 081216 Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS) 121216, BCC China 121216, International IMME 161216 , UKMO seasonal 161216, Japan JMA 161216, USA - IR 161216, UKMO Contingency 201216, Korea APCC 281216.



CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 06Z on date shown
Perth Birmingham
London Exeter

SEASONAL FORECAST
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).



For an attempt at regional detail for SW England click here after about the 20th





2017 JAN FEB MAR


Comment - 28/DEC/2016 - CFS 2 since about mid December has been sugesting drier than normal January for most areas and also near normal temperatures. Then return to above normal temperatures and rainfall for remainder of this season.

Summary - 18/DEC/2016 - Although the forecast for the season as a whole is for above normal temperatures (only limited support for below normal) there are indications that early January may be colder, at least in the S of UK. February may see values closer to the long term average rather than above.
Precipitation probably near normal but with indications that Jan and Feb could be a little drier and March wetter. Strongest indication for wetter in the NW and drier in the S or SE backed up by an indication that pressure might be higher than average in the S of UK. Implied mobile patterns with ridging in S rather than blocked. Caution blocking patterns are very poorly forecast.


For 1981-2010 average snow lying/snow falling days UKMO snow-in-the-uk

IRI Statistical data for potential La Nina affect on UK PPN

IRIIRI climate impacts.

Model summaries
NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days. 100KM resolution output. Anomalies wrt 1999-2010 hindcast climatology. (Normal is +/-0.5C from model hindcast mean).

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 261216
TEMP: Season: normal
JAN normal FEB England and Wales above elsewhere normal MAR SW England, Wales, Eire, N Ireland and most of Scotland normal elsewhere above
PPN: Season: Normal b ut above in W Scotland, N Ireland and Eire
JAN N Ireland, NW Scotland and N England normal elsewhere below normal FEB SE England and NE Scotland normal elsewhere above normal MAR Eire, N Ireland, Scotland, Wales and SW England above elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 211216
TEMP: Season: N Ireland and Eire normal elsewhere above
JAN normal locally above in NE Scotland FEB above normal in S Eire S and E Scotland all of England and Wales elsewhere normal MAR normal in N Ireland, most of Eire except the SE, otherwise above normal
PPN: Season: Normal in NE and E Scotland, NE, E and Se England elsewhere above normal
JAN N Scotland normal elsewhere below FEB above normal MAR above normal

Data on the 19th has persisted with the drier than normal for most of UK in January with near and in N above normal temperatures which implies cloudy types.
USA - NCEP CFS2 - 141216 ** caution PPN around mid month seems to go for drier month one may be an error**
TEMP: Season: above normal
JAN Wales, Midlands and S England normal elsewhere above FEB above or well above normal MAR Eire normal elsewhere above
PPN: Season: NW Scotland above far SE England below elsewhere normal
JAN N Scotland normal elsewhere below** FEB S and E of England and S and E of Eire normal elsewhere above MAR normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 101216
TEMP: Season: above normal
JAN above normal FEB above normal MAR normal in Midlands SW England Eire and N Ireland elsewhere above normal
PPN: Season: locally above in W Cornwall SW Eire and W.NW Scotland
JAN normal but above in S and SW England Wales S Eire and W coast Scotland FEB locally normal in E elsewhere above normal MAR locally above normal in W Scotland, below normal in SE Scotland, most of England and Wales and SE Eire elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 071216
TEMP: Season: above normal
JAN above normal FEB above normal MAR N Ireland, Eire and SW England normal elsewhere above normal
PPN: Season: Above normal in Eire, N Ireland W and SW Scotland and Cornwall elsewhere normal
JAN normal but above in W Scotland and much of Eire FEB above normal MAR normal but NW Scotland above and Midlands below

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011216
TEMP: Season: above normal
JAN near normal FEB above normal (0.5-1) especially in S (1 to 2C anomaly) MAR above normal
PPN: Season: E Midlands and NE England normal elsewhere above normal
JAN above normal but NE and E Englnd normal FEB above normal but NE and E Englnd normal MAR above normal but NE Scotland and SE Englnd normal



Korea APCC - 281216
Temp: Season Near normal in SE otherwise above normal
JAN above normal especially in N FEB above normal especially in N MAR above normal especially in N
PPN : Season mostly no signal but hint of above in NW
JAN similar probs above/normal/below - no signal FEB similar probs above/normal/below - no signal MAR similar probs above/normal/below - no signal



UKMO contingency 151216 (available 19th)
TEMP: January distribution similar to normal spread of climatology but with well below normal less likely. Plot of members seems to be slightly above normal - about 60/40 split above/below.
Jan to March: Strong signal for above normal possibly well above and given a near normal Jan then for a period in Feb and/or Mar it may be unusually mild
PPN: January Main signal is for above normal rainfall although about 17% of members are below normal. Mean value suggest not quite as wet as last 3 years.
Jan to March: Although the curve fitting software places the period in the above normal categorty the members are in rather spread out clusters, two below normal and two above normal. There are roughly an equal number of solutions above and below normal but raher more memebers than climatology in the just above normal zone. Hence above normal seems more likely than below.



IRI multi-model ensemble information
USA - IRI - 161216 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: above normal (45 to 55% prob)
PPN : no signal - similar probs for above/normal/below


UKMO - 121216 - (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg (50km) resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks 85 levels 75 ocean levels - 14 year hindcast 1996-2009 - 42 ensemble members)
TEMP: Above normal (more than 60% prob above 80% in N and W) - probs for below normal less than 20%. Fairly high probs for well above normal, mostly more than 40% over 55% in NE Scotland, but only over 25% in S.
PPN : In NW Eire W Scotland and NW England more than 60% prob for above normal, reduced probs in SW England. Southern UK has elevated probs for below or well below normal. Eire has both elevated probs for well above and well below normal - increased spread of solutions?
PSML: More than 60% prob for above normal except Scotland where near normal more likely.



Japan JMA - 1611216 -(June 2015 - 51 member ensemble accumulated (13+13+13+12) over 15 days run 5 days apart at 110km resolution)
Temp: Season slightly above
JAN slightly above FEB slightly above MAR slightly above
PPN : Season England and Wales slightly above elsewhere slightly below
JAN N Ireland, England and Wales slightly above elsewhere slightly below FEB slightly below MAR slightly above
PMSL: Season N slightly above S slightly below (WSW)
JAN slightly below (WSW) FEB Above normal (WSW weak in S) MAR below normal (WSW)



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m Second generation coupled model. 24 memebers. Atmospheric component is BCC_AGCM2.2 at T106 horizontal resolution (about 1 degree) and 26 vertical layer.
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 121216 -
TEMP: Season: near or slightly below normal
JAN Scotland slightly below elsewhere slightly above (E England above) FEB E England above elsewhere below or slightly below MAR Scotland above normal elsewhere below or slightly below
PPN: Season: Eire and Scotland below elsewhere above
JAN N Scotland below elsewhere above normal FEB S normal elsewhere below MAR Far N Normal elsewhere below normal



Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes - 121216
Temp: slightly above normal
PPN : mostly above normal locally normal E Scotland E England S Eire and SW England
PMSL: Slightly above to NE and slightly below to SW
Brazil predicted sea temps not available persisted used(RAS)
Temp: slightly above normal
PPN : near normal locally above N Ireland and far W Scotland



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 081216
TEMP: Season normal or slightly above
JAN N Scotland above S and SW England and S Wales below elsewhere normal FEB normal or slgihtly above MAR above normal
PPN : Season normal
JAN E England normal elsewhere below FEB S Eire and Midlands normal elsewhere below MAR above normal


Russia 011216
Temp: Above normal but Scotland similar probs for above/normal/below
PPN : Similar probs for above/normal/below



Meteorological Service of Canada, CanSIPS forecasts are based on a 10-member ensemble of forecasts produced with each of two CCCma climate models for a total ensemble size of 20. Hindcast period 1981 to 2010. CanSips is included in the NMME.

CanSIPS 011216
TEMP:
JAN near normal locally above in SE England FEB near normal locally above in N Ireland SW Scotland NW England and N Wales MAR near normal
PPN :
JAN near normal locally above in SW England FEB below normal MAR above normal especially SE England .



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 081216 - (based on recent runs output may not be mild enough).
TEMP: Season: 50 to 60% prob slightly above normal (see month by month graphics)

PPN: Season: 40 to 50% prob NW Eire and NW Scotland above normal elsewhere no signal (similar probs for above/normal/below)


Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 161216
TEMP: season - Slightly above normal
JAN near normal especially in N FEB near normal MAR near normal

PPN: season - near normal locally above in W Eire.
JAN near normal FEB Eire and W and SW of UK above normal MAR near normal



Graphics 081216
CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP

TX TX TX

TN TN TN

CFS2 TEMP

T T T

CFS2 PPN

P P P


NMME MAX and MIN
TX TX TX


TN TN TN


NMME TEMP:

T T T



NMME PPN rate:

P P P


NMME TEMP PROBS:

T T T

NMME PPN:
P P P



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P





2017 FEB MAR APR


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 261216
TEMP: Season: Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere above
FEB England and Wales above elsewhere normal MAR SW England, Wales, Eire, N Ireland and most of Scotland normal elsewhere above APR above normal
PPN: Season: all of E half of England and NE Scotland normal elsewhere above normal
FEB SE England and NE Scotland normal elsewhere above normal MAR Eire, N Ireland, Scotland, Wales and SW England above elsewhere normal APR S Scotland and SW England above elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 211216
TEMP: Season: N Ireland and most of Eire except the S normal otherwise all areas above normal
FEB above normal in S Eire S and E Scotland all of England and Wales elsewhere normal MAR normal in N Ireland, most of Eire except the SE, otherwise above normal APR above normal
PPN: Season: above normal
FEB above normal MAR above normal APR normal locally above in N half Scotland also SW England and SE England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 141216
TEMP: Season: above normal
FEB above or well above normal MAR Eire normal elsewhere above APR above normal
PPN: Season: SE Eire, NE Scotland and S and E England normal elsewhere abovebr> FEB S and E of England and S and E of Eire normal elsewhere above MAR normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 101216
TEMP: Season: above normal
FEB above normal MAR normal in Midlands SW England Eire and N Ireland elsewhere above normal APR above normal
PPN: Season: locally above in W Cornwall, W Eire and W and NW Scotland elsewhere normal
FEB locally normal in E elsewhere above normal MAR locally above normal in W Scotland, below normal in SE Scotland, most of England and Wales and SE Eire elsewhere normal APR above normal


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 071216
TEMP: Season: above normal
FEB above normal MAR N Ireland, Eire and SW England normal elsewhere above normal APR above normal
PPN: Season: Normal in NE Scotland Midlands NE and E England elsewhere above
FEB above normal MAR normal but NW Scotland above and Midlands below APR above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011216
TEMP: Season: above normal
FEB above normal (0.5-1) especially in S (1 to 2C anomaly) MAR above normal APR above normal
PPN: Season: normal in SE Eire Wales most of England except SW and far NW otherwise above normal
FEB above normal but NE and E Englnd normal MAR above normal but NE Scotland and SE Englnd normal APR normal locally below in SW Eire



USA - IRI - 161216 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: above normal (50 to in N 60% prob)
PPN : no signal - similar probs for above/normal/below


UKMO - 121216 -
TEMP: Above normal (more than 80%) - probs for below normal less than 20%. Fairly high probs for well above normal, mostly more than 40%.
PPN : In NW and W Eire, N Ireland, W Scotland and NW England more than 60% prob for above normal, reduced probs in SW England. Southern UK has elevated probs for below or well below normal. Eire has elevated probs for well above normal
PSML: S and SW UK and Eire more than 60% prob for above normal elsewhere normal more likely.



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 121216 -
TEMP: Season: England slightly below elsewhere slightly above
FEB E England above elsewhere below or slightly below MAR Scotland above normal elsewhere below or slightly below APR above normal
PPN: Season: below normal
FEB S normal elsewhere below MAR Far N Normal elsewhere below normal APR Far N normal elsewhere below normal S and SW (of UK and Eire) well below



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 081216
TEMP: Season above normal
FEB normal or slgihtly above MAR above normal APR above normal
PPN : Season normal or slgihtly above
FEB S Eire and Midlands normal elsewhere below MAR above normal APR normal or slgihtly above


CanSIPS 011216
TEMP:
FEB near normal locally above in N Ireland SW Scotland NW England and N Wales MAR near normal APR Eire and W Cornwall near normal elsewhere above
PPN :
FEB below normal MAR above normal especially SE England APR near normal locally above in N Ireland E Eire Wales and SW England





Spring 2017 MAR APR MAY

Summary - 18/DEC/2016 - Milder or much milder than average, perhaps less so in May. Unsettled zonal pattern with a hint of the S being near or only slightly above normal rainfall but elsewhere generally above normal.



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 261216
TEMP: Season: Eire, N Ireland and NE England normal elsewhere above normal.
MAR SW England, Wales, Eire, N Ireland and most of Scotland normal elsewhere above APR above normal MAY SE England above elsewhere normal
PPN: Season: ormal but above in Eire SW and S of England NW Scotland and Central Lowlands
MAR Eire, N Ireland, Scotland, Wales and SW England above elsewhere normal APR S Scotland and SW England above elsewhere normal MAY NW Eire, SW and S of England and S Wales above elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 211216
TEMP: Season: normal but above in N and E Scotland Midlnds and SE/E of England
MAR normal in N Ireland, most of Eire except the SE, otherwise above normal APR above normal MAY normal
PPN: Season: above normal
MAR above normal APR normal locally above in N half Scotland also SW England and SE England MAY NE Scotland normal elsewhere above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 141216
TEMP: Season: Eire normal elsewhere above
MAR Eire normal elsewhere above APR above normal MAY normal locally above in NE Scotland and E of England
PPN: Season: NE Scotland normal elsewhere above
MAR normal APR above normal MAY above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 101216
TEMP: Season: above normal
MAR normal in Midlands SW England Eire and N Ireland elsewhere above normal APR above normal MAY normal but S England and N Scotland above normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in NW England W Scotland N Ireland and most of Eire
MAR locally above normal in W Scotland, below normal in SE Scotland, most of England and Wales and SE Eire elsewhere normal APR above normal MAY above normal locally nornal SE England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 071216
TEMP: Season: above normal
MAR N Ireland, Eire and SW England normal elsewhere above normal APR above normal MAY above normal
PPN: Season: Eire above normal elsewhere normal
MAR normal but NW Scotland above and Midlands below APR above normal MAY normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011216
TEMP: Season:
MAR above normal APR above normal MAY normal but Scotland above normal
PPN: Season:
MAR above normal but NE Scotland and SE Englnd normal APR normal locally below in SW Eire MAY normal



USA - IRI - 161216 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: above normal (40 to 50% in S over 70% in Scotland)
PPN : no signal - similar probs for above/normal/below


UKMO - 121216 -
TEMP: Above normal (more than 80% but in SE more than 60%) - probs for below normal less than 20%. Fairly high probs for well above normal, mostly more than 40% but much of England except SW more than 25%.
PPN : In NW and W Eire, N Ireland, W Scotland and NW England more than 60% prob for above normal. N and NW parts have elevated probs for well above normal.
PSML: Far S and SW UK more than 60% prob for above normal elsewhere normal more likely.



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 121216 -
TEMP: Season: slightly above normal
MAR Scotland above normal elsewhere below or slightly below APR above normal MAY near normal, above in E
PPN: Season: far N normal elsewhere below normal
MAR Far N Normal elsewhere below normal APR Far N normal elsewhere below normal S and SW (of UK and Eire) well below MAY N normal elsewhere below normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 081216
TEMP: Season above normal
MAR above normal APR above normal MAY N Ireland, Scotland, N and E England and Midlands normal elsewhere below normal
PPN : Season above normal
MAR above normal APR normal or slightly above MAY normal or slgihtly above


CanSIPS 011216
TEMP: Season above normal
MAR near normal APR Eire and W Cornwall near normal elsewhere above MAY near normal locally above in far NE Scotland
PPN : Season normal
MAR above normal especially SE England APR near normal locally above in N Ireland E Eire Wales and SW England MAY near normal locally above N Ireland W Scotland NW England Wales Midlands and SE England



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 081216
TEMP: season - 60 to 70% prob above normal

PPN: season - 40 to 50% prob slightly above normal




Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 161216
TEMP: season - slightly above normal
MAR near normal APR near or slightly above MAY near or slightly above

PPN rate: season - near normal
MAR near normal APR near normal MAY near normal



Graphics 081216
CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP

TX TX TX

TN TN TN

CFS2 TEMP

T T T

CFS2 PPN

P P P


NMME MAX and MIN
TX TX TX


TN TN TN


NMME TEMP:

T T T



NMME PPN rate:

P P P


NMME TEMP PROBS:

T T T

NMME PPN:
P P P



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P




2017 APR MAY JUN


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 261216
TEMP: Season: S and W Eire and NE England normal elsewhere abive normal
APR above normal MAY SE England above elsewhere normal JUN NE England normal elsewhere above normal
PPN: Season: SW England, SW Midlands NW Eire and central lowlands Scotland above normal elsewhere normal
APR S Scotland and SW England above elsewhere normal MAY NW Eire, SW and S of England and S Wales above elsewhere normal JUN W Eire, W Scotland and Central Lowlands, NW Midlands above elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 211216
TEMP: Season: normal but above in Scotland, Midlands and S and SE England
APR above normal MAY normal JUN NE England normal otherwise above normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in Eire, NW England, SW and W Scotland
APR normal locally above in N half Scotland also SW England and SE England MAY NE Scotland normal elsewhere above JUN normal locally below Wales S and E England but locally above in W Eire and central lowlands Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 141216
TEMP: Season: Eire and NE England normal elsewhere above
APR above normal MAY normal locally above in NE Scotland and E of England JUN normal locally above in Scotland and S/SE England
PPN: Season: NE Scotland normal elsewhere above
APR above normal MAY above normal JUN normal locally abive in Eire and S Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 101216
TEMP: Season: locally normal in Eire and NE England elsewhere above normal
PPN: Season: NE Scotland normal elsewhere above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 071216
TEMP: Season: NE England normal elsewhere above normal
PPN: Season: normal in N andE Scotlandm NE England N Ireland and NE Eire elsewhere above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011216
TEMP: Season: Normal but Scotland and far SE England above normal
PPN: Season: normal



USA - IRI - 161216 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: above normal (over 60% and mostly over 70% prob)
PPN : no signal - similar probs for above/normal/below


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 121216 -
Season: above normal
APR above normal MAY near normal, above in E JUN above normal
PPN: Season: below or well below normal
APR Far N normal elsewhere below normal S and SW (of UK and Eire) well below MAY N normal elsewhere below normal JUN SE England above elsewhere below



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 081216
TEMP: Season above normal
APR above normal MAY N Ireland, Scotland, N and E England and Midlands normal elsewgere below normal JUN above normal JUL above normal AUG above normal
PPN : Season normal or slgihtly above
APR normal or slgihtly above MAY normal or slgihtly above JUN normal JUL below normal AUG normal


CanSIPS 011216
TEMP:
APR Eire and W Cornwall near normal elsewhere above MAY near normal locally above in far NE Scotland JUN Eire, S Wales SW and S England near normal elsewhere above
PPN :
APR near normal locally above in N Ireland E Eire Wales and SW England MAY near normal locally above N Ireland W Scotland NW England Wales Midlands and SE England JUN below normal.





2017 MAY JUN JUL



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 261216
TEMP: Season: N half Scotland and SE England above elsewhere normal
PPN: Season: normal but west Midlands above.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 211216
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in N half Scotland, S and SE England
PPN: Season: normal but above in most of Eire, Wales, Midlands NW England, SW and W Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 141216
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in Scotland and S/SE England
PPN: Season:N Scotland normal elsewhere above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 101216
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in N half of Scotland abd far SE England
PPN: Season: locally normal in NE Scotland elsewhere above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 071216
TEMP: Season: Normal but above normal in SE England N Ireland NW England and Scotland
PPN: Season: N Scotland and N Ireland normal elsewhere above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011216
TEMP: Season: Normal but Scotland above normal
PPN: Season: Above normal but NE Scotland and much of NE and E England normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 121216 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
MAY near normal, above in E JUN above normal JUL above normal
PPN: Season: below or well below normal
MAY N normal elsewhere below normal JUN SE England above elsewhere below JUL N normal elsewhere below normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 081216
TEMP:
MAY N Ireland, Scotland, N and E England and Midlands normal elsewgere below normal JUN above normal JUL above normal
PPN :
MAY normal or slgihtly above JUN normal JUL below normal


CanSIPS 011216
TEMP:
MAY near normal locally above in far NE Scotland JUN Eire, S Wales SW and S England near normal elsewhere above JUL near normal locally above in E Scotland and E England
PPN :
MAY near normal locally above N Ireland W Scotland NW England Wales Midlands and SE England JUN below normal JUL above normal but normal in S Eire S and E of England





2017 JUN JUL AUG


Summary - 18/DEC/2016 - Limited data - Warmer than average summer with normal or drier weather in the S of UK and perhaps SE Eire but normal or wetter further N especially the NW. June and July may be drier for the S of UK than August - best taken in terms of number of dry days rather than total rain?.



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 261216
TEMP: Season: normal but N Ireland and Scotland above normal
PPN: Season: normal but midlands above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 211216
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in N Ireland most of Scotland, W Midlands, S and SE of England
PPN: Season: normal but locally above in Midlands, Cemtral Lowlands Scotland and W Eire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 141216
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in Scotland and E of England
PPN: Season: normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 121216 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
JUN above normal JUL above normal AUG above normal well above in S
PPN: Season: below or well below normal
JUN SE England above elsewhere below JUL N normal elsewhere below normal AUG N normal elsewhere below normal and S well below



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 081216
TEMP:
JUN above normal JUL above normal AUG above normal
PPN :
JUN normal JUL below normal AUG normal


CanSIPS 011216
TEMP:
JUN Eire, S Wales SW and S England near normal elsewhere above JUL near normal locally above in E Scotland and E England AUG near normal
PPN :
UN below normal JUL above normal but normal in S Eire S and E of England AUG above normal



CFS2 TEMP 081216

T T T

CFS2 PPN

P P P




2017 JUL AUG SEP


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 121216 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
JUL above normal AUG above normal well above in S SEP well above normal
PPN: Season:
JUL N normal elsewhere below normal AUG N normal elsewhere below normal and S well below SEP above normal



CanSIPS 011216
TEMP:
JUL near normal locally above in E Scotland and E England AUG near normal SEP near normal
PPN :
JUL above normal but normal in S Eire S and E of England AUG above normal SEP normal locally above IN far SE England and far NW Scotland .





2017 AUG SEP OCT


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 121216 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
AUG above normal well above in S SEP well above normal OCT well above normal but in S above normal
PPN: Season: below normal
AUG N normal elsewhere below normal and S well below SEP above normal OCT below normal



CanSIPS 011216
TEMP:
AUG near normal SEP near normal OCT near normal in SW England SW Wales Eire N Ireland and far N Scotland elsewhere above
PPN :
AUG above normal SEP normal locally above IN far SE England and far NW Scotland OCT S of England and S Eire below, NW Scotland above elsewhere normal





2017 SEP OCT NOV


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 121216 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
SEP well above normal OCT well above normal but in S above normal NOV slightly above normal
PPN: Season: N normal elsewhere below
SEP above normal OCT below normal NOV N and E slightly above S and W slightly below



CanSIPS 011216
TEMP:
SEP near normal OCT near normal in SW England SW Wales Eire N Ireland and far N Scotland elsewhere above NOV near normal in SW England SW Wales Eire and far N Scotland elsewhere above
PPN :
SEP normal locally above IN far SE England and far NW Scotland OCT S of England and S Eire below, NW Scotland above elsewhere normal NOV BElow normal in Eire, SW and S of England and far S of Wales.





2017 OCT NOV DEC


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 121216 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
OCT well above normal but in S above normal NOV slightly above normal DEC above normal
PPN: Season: N normal or above elsewhere below
OCT below normal NOV N and E slightly above S and W slightly below DEC N slightly above elsewhere slightly below normal





NOTEs:
1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR – 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory


Comments or questions please E mail

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