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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK area - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous summary - November 2015 data

Summary of International experimental Seasonal Forecasts for UK and Eire for 1 and 3 month periods

Updated 231215 (ddmmyy). Main updates are noted on Twitter @T2mike


This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest


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December 2015 data complete from the GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES

ALl data complete 241215

Data sources available date: USA - NCEP CFS2 (011215 091215 151215 211215), Russia 301115, USA NASA GMAO GSFC (Temp only PPN 101215) 071215, NMME and CFS2 graphics 101215 (UK zoom 151215), US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) 101215, Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS), UKMO seasonal 141215, Japan JMA 141215, International IMME 171215, BCC China 171215, USA - IRI 171215, South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) LRF 201215, UKMO Contingency 201215, Korea APCC 241215.


CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 00Z on date shown



SEASONAL FORECAST
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).



JAN FEB MAR 2016 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Comment - 211215 - UKMO contingency implies colder spell may be some time in Feb/Mar rather than starting in Jan. Implied increase snow risk, mainly for the N half of UK where enhanced precipitaion rates are also more likely. The breakdown of the enhanced zonality is indicated in other output for Feb/March but at present there is little if any support for a cold easterly type block.
Summary - 171215 - There is agreement that most of the Uk and Eire may well keep above normal temperatures for the three month season overall although the N/NW may well be nearer normal. Indications for a colder spell are less clear but some output suggests that Feb may be colder than normal in the N, perhaps normal to colder in the S. This colder/less mild spell in the S of UK may well start mid to late Jan until about mid Feb although for SW England this may be a shorter period. Precipitation signals are mixed but suggest above normal for the three months as a whole but trending to nearer normal for March. There is less clear indication for Feb being drier. Snow risk lowest in the SW and S probably normal risk in the north.

For 1981-2010 average snow lying/snow falling days UKMO snow-in-the-uk

IRI Statistical data for El Nino UK PPN - main signal is for normal or above normal with strongest risk for above normal in parts of Midlands, NW England, Scotland and Eire - see maps. Chance of parts of the S of UK being normal or drier. (corrected 151215)

IRI climate impacts.


NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days. 100KM resolution output. Anomalies wrt 1999-2010 hindcast climatology. (Normal is +/-0.5C from model hindcast mean).

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 211215
TEMP: Season: N Ireland and Scotland normal elsewhere above
JAN Above normal, well above in S FEB Scotland, N Ireland and most of Eire except S and E normal elsewhere above normal especially S England MAR S and SE Englland above normal elsewhre normal APR normal MAY normal but far SE above JUN normal
PPN: Season: above normal locally well above in SW/W/NW of UK and Eire
JAN above or well above normal FEB above normal MAR Normal S Scotland and N England elsewhere above normal APR normal for Eire, N Ireland, Scotland, N England, SW England and central southern England elsewhere above MAY above normal but E Scotland normal JUN above nomral in NW Scotland W Eire and SE England elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 151215
TEMP: Season: SE Eire Wales and most of England above normal, elsewhere normal.
JAN N Eire, N Ireland and northern two thirds of Scotland normal elsewhere above especially Wales and S half of England FEB N Scotland normal elsewhere above MAR normal
PPN: Season: above normal
JAN above normal well above in SW England SW Eire and W Scotland FEB above normal MAR N Ireland and most of Scotland normal. E/SE Scotland, England and Wales above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 091215
TEMP: Season: Scotland, N Ireland and most of Eire normal elsewhere above
JAN N half Scotland and NW Eire normal elsewhere above, well above in S FEB Central and N Scotland, N and W Eire normal elsewhere above, well above in SE England MAR normal but Wales and S half of England above
PPN: Season: above normal well above in S UK and S Eire
JAN above or well above normal FEB N Eire, N Ireland and W Scotland normal elsewhere above MAR Scotland normal elsewhere above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011215
TEMP: Season: Above normal for S Eire, Wales and most of England but normal elsewhere including N of England
JAN NW Scotland normal elsewhere above normal Wales and S half England well above (1 to 2C) FEB normal but Wales and S half England above normal (0.5 to 1C) MAR normal but S of England above normal
PPN: Season: above normal
JAN Above normal especially S and W FEB England and Wales above normal NW Scotland below normal elsewhere normal MAR mostly above normal locally normal N and NW Eire and NE England.



Korea APCC - 241215
Temp: Season above normal locally well above in SW and far N/NE
JAN above normal locally well above in SW and far N/NE FEB above normal locally well above in SW and far N/NE MAR normal locally above especially SW
PPN : Season normal perhaps above normal
JAN 40to 50% prob above normal FEB normal locally above in S and E MAR normal



UKMO contingency (isued earlier than normal due holidays) 201215
UKMO states increased risk of blocking patterns Feb or March.
TEMP:
JAN above normal perhaps well above normal more likely than below normal 60 / 30% probs
JAN to MAR mostly clustered around normal but with secondary clusters above normal and below normal. Given Jan being above or well above a colder period is probable in Feb or March. Met Office says slightly enhanced risk (20 to 25 compared to climatolgy 20%) that the season could fall into coldest category.
PPN:
JAN central cluster near normal with spread into above and below normal. Small number of members above the climatological extereme (1981-2010).
JAN to MAR Large spread centred on above normal. Met Office comment that the above normal rainfall associated with EL Nino/NAO is shifted northwards a little with the S less likely to have above normal rain. This combined with colder Feb or Mar could lead to increased snow risk (mainly in N)



SAWS ECHAM4.5 30 member ensemble. - 201215
TEMP: probability above normal 70 to 90%
PPN: probabiity above normal 33 to 50% locally higher N England but near normal N Scotland, Westcountry and SW Eire


USA - IRI - 171215 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: above normal 40% probs in Eire and SE England to 50 to 60% prob in N. For Scotland low probs for well above normal.
PPN : mostly no signal/similar probs for above/normal/below but for SW Eire probs favour below normal


BCC China - 171215
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: near normal perhaps slightly below in places


UKMO - 141215 - (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg (50km) resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks 85 levels 75 ocean levels - 14 year hindcast 1996-2009)
TEMP: England and Wales prob above normal 60 to 80% range elsewhere 40-60%. NW UK and Eire near normal with risk of below normal elsewhere above normal most likely. Enhanced probs for well above normal highest in S and E of England 40-55% range.
PPN : Above normal most likely but Eire and parts of Scotland slightly lower probs for above normal. Enhanced probs for well above normal in many areas highest probs NW and E England also NE Scotland.
PSML: near normal most likely - chance of above normal to SW of UK and below to N and E (suggests persistent high over Europe unlikely)


Japan JMA run 071215 available 141215
(June 2015 - 51 member ensemble accumulated (13+13+13+12) over 15 days run 5 days apart at 110km resolution)
Temp: Season slightly above normal
JAN slightly above normal FEB slightly below normal MAR slightly above normal
PPN : Season Scotland and N Ireland slightly above normal elsewhere slightly below normal
JAN Scotland, N Ireland and Eire slightly above normal elsewhere slightly below FEB slightly above normal MAR Scotland slightly below normal elsewhere slightly above normal
PMSL: Season slightly above normal (strong W)
JAN above normal especially in S (Strong W) FEB slightly above normal (W) MAR below normal (WNW)


Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes 101215
Temp: slightly above normal
PPN : normal but N and W, including Eire, above normal
PMSL: below normal
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: S and E slightly above elsewhere normal
PPN : S, SW, W and SW above normal elsewhere normal


USA NASA GMAO GSFC temp 071215 ppn 101214
TEMP: Season N Scotland near normal elsewhere above normal
JAN near normal (+/-0.25) but N Scotland slightly below normal FEB N Scotland near normal elsewhere above normal (0.5 to 1C) MAR far N Scotland near normal elsewhere above normal
PPN : Season near normal
JAN Normal but NW UK below normal FEB near or a slightly above normal MAR NW above normal elsewhere normal


Russia 301115 -
Temp season: For Scotland, Eire and N Ireland similar probs above/normal/below but for England and Wales above normal is more likely.
PPN season: N half of Scotland, Eire and N Ireland similar probs above/normal/below but for S Scotland, England and Wales above normal is more likely.


Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 101215 - see graphics for month to month
TEMP: SEASON: above normal but NW Scotland normal
PPN: SEASON: above normal but NW Scotland normal


Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 171215
TEMP: Season: NW Eire and NW Scotland normal elsewhere above normal especially so in SE third of England
JAN FEB MAR all similar to season.
PPN: Season: N of UK normal elsewhere above normal
JAN above normal all areas. FEB near normal except far S of England above normal MAR normal



Graphics
CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP





CFS2 TEMP



CFS2 PPN




NMME MAX and MIN






NMME TEMP:





NMME PPN rate:




NMME TEMP PROBS:



NMME PPN:


UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN mean anomaly 141115






FEB MAR APR -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 211215
TEMP: Season: S England above normal elsewhere normal
FEB Scotland, N Ireland and most of Eire except S and E normal elsewhere above normal especially S England MAR S and SE Englland above normal elsewhre normal APR normal
PPN: Season: above normal except E and SE Scotland normal
FEB above normal MAR Normal S Scotland and N England elsewhere above normal APR normal for Eire, N Ireland, Scotland, N England, SW England and central southern England elsewhere above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 151215
TEMP: Season: S Wales and S of England above elsewhere normal
FEB N Scotland normal elsewhere above MAR normal APR normal
PPN: Season: above normal
FEB above normal MAR N Ireland and most of Scotland normal. E/SE Scotland, England and Wales above normal APR above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 091215
TEMP: Season: N England, Scotland, N Ireland and Eire normal elsewhere above
JAN N half Scotland and NW Eire normal elsewhere above, well above in S FEB Central and N Scotland, N and W Eire normal elsewhere above, well above in SE England MAR normal but Wales and S half of England above APR normal but Wales and S half of England above MAY near normal
PPN: Season: N half Scotland and N Ireland normal elsewhere above
FEB N Eire, N Ireland and W Scotland normal elsewhere above MAR Scotland normal elsewhere above normal APR S and SE England, NE Scotland and SE Eire normal elsewhere above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011215
TEMP: Season: normal but England, Wales and S Eire above normal
FEB normal but Wales and S half England above normal (0.5 to 1C) MAR normal but S of England above normal APR normal
PPN: Season: Scotland, N Ireland and Eire normal elsewhere above
FEB England and Wales above normal NW Scotland below normal elsewhere normal MAR mostly above normal locally normal N and NW Eire and NE England APR Normal, NW Scotland above, S Eire and SW England below.



SAWS ECHAM4.5 30 member ensemble. - 201215
TEMP: probability above normal 70 to 90% but England and central Scotland 50 to 60%
PPN: probabiity above normal 33 to 50% but near normal N Scotland, W Wales, Westcountry and NW Eire


USA - IRI - 171215 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: above normal probs range from 40% in SW UK, N Ireland and E Eire to over 60% in N Scotland
PPN : no signal - similar probs above/normal/below


BCC China - 171215
TEMP: Season: S near normal elsewhere above normal
PPN: Season: near normal to slightly above


UKMO - 141215
TEMP: Reduced probs for above normal over N Ireland, N Eire and N and W Scotland - these areas below normal most likely. Elsewhere near or above normal with England and Wales most likely above normal and the S well above normal.
PPN : Above normal most likely perhaps nearer normal in NW. Enhanced probs for well above normal over most of England and Wales NW Eire and W of N Ireland also S and E Scotland. (very enhanced probs near SE England).
PSML: below normal most likely perhaps near normal in SW


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 071215
TEMP: Season above normal but only slightly in N
FEB N Scotland near normal elsewhere above normal (0.5 to 1C) MAR far N Scotland near normal elsewhere above normal APR N Scotland slightly above normal elsewhere above normal
PPN : Season near normal but N Scotland above normal
FEB near or a slightly above normal MAR NW above normal elsewhere normal APR NW below normal elsewhere normal



Spring 2016 MAR APR MAY -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Summary - 171215 -For the three months overall temperatures near to slightly above normal with preicpitation near or above normal most likely. Monthly detail hints at March milder in south but wetter in the far N and S/SW, April the least mild month perhaps drier in the N and wetter in the S and MAY perhaps above normal in the N and W and near normal rain perhaps wetter in the SE. Precip detail has been the least relaible output.


IRI Statistical data for El Nino UK PPN - Above normal precip for many areas suggested by statistical link to El Nino - see maps. However forecasts suggest El Nino may be weakening in Spring 2016.

IRI climate impacts.


NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 211215
TEMP: Season: normal but far SE England above
MAR S and SE Englland above normal elsewhre normal APR normal MAY normal but far SE above
PPN: Season: above normal but locally normal N England/ Scotland E of Eire and E of N Ireland.
MAR Normal S Scotland and N England elsewhere above normal APR normal for Eire, N Ireland, Scotland, N England, SW England and central southern England elsewhere above MAY above normal but E Scotland normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 151215
TEMP: Season: normal
MAR normal APR normal MAY normal
PPN: Season: above normal
MAR N Ireland and most of Scotland normal. E/SE Scotland, England and Wales above normal APR above normal MAY above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 091215
TEMP: Season: SE England above normal elsewhere normal
JAN N half Scotland and NW Eire normal elsewhere above, well above in S FEB Central and N Scotland, N and W Eire normal elsewhere above, well above in SE England MAR normal but Wales and S half of England above APR normal but Wales and S half of England above MAY near normal
PPN: Season: normal for E Eire E Midlands and E Scotland elsewhere above
MAR Scotland normal elsewhere above normal APR S and SE England, NE Scotland and SE Eire normal elsewhere above MAY NW Eire and NW/W Scotland above normal elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011215
TEMP: Season: near normal
MAR normal but S of England above normal APR normal MAY normal
PPN: Season: mostly normal but NW Scotland, NE England and far SE above normal
MAR mostly above normal locally normal N and NW Eire and NE England APR Normal, NW Scotland above, S Eire and SW England below. MAY mainly normal but S Eire below, SE England and NW Scotland above.



SAWS ECHAM4.5 30 member ensemble. - 201215
TEMP: normal more likely than above or below
PPN: normal more likely than above or below but for W Eire and parts of S and SW UK probabiity below normal 33 to 50%


USA - IRI - 171215 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: SE and SW England 40% prob above normal elsewhere 50 to 60% and for N and E Scotland over 70% prob.
PPN : no signal - similar probs above/normal/below



BCC China - 171215
TEMP: Season: near normal
PPN: Season: near normal to slightly above in W


UKMO - 141215
TEMP: S and E above normal perhaps well above normal. Elsewhere near normal most likely.
PPN : Above normal most likely well above across parts of Wales, S and W also NW England. SW Scotland and parts of NW Eire.
PSML: near normal perhaps above in SW and below in NE


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 071215
TEMP: Season Eire and N Scotland normal elsewhere above normal
MAR far N Scotland near normal elsewhere above normal APR N Scotland slightly above normal elsewhere above normal MAY near normal
PPN : Season near normal but N Scotland slightly above
MAR NW above normal elsewhere normal APR NW below normal elsewhere normal MAY SW below normal NW above normal elsewhere normal


Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 101215
TEMP: SEASON: near normal in W/NW elsewhere near or slightly above normal
PPN: SEASON: near normal perhaps slightly above in England


Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - awaited
TEMP: NW near normal elsewhere above
MAR NW near normal elsewhere above APR near normal but S Wales and SE half England above MAY Eire and NW Scotland near normal elsewhere above
PPN: near normal
MAR near normal APR near normal but parts of Eire and S England may be above MAY near normal



Graphics
CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP





CFS2 TEMP



CFS2 PPN




NMME MAX and MIN






NMME TEMP:





NMME PPN rate:




NMME TEMP PROBS:



NMME PPN:




UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly





Late Spring 2016 APR MAY JUN --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 211215
TEMP: Season: normal
APR normal MAY normal but far SE above JUN normal
PPN: Season: above normal N Scotland W Eire E Midland and SE England elsewhere normal
APR normal for Eire, N Ireland, Scotland, N England, SW England and central southern England elsewhere above MAY above normal but E Scotland normal JUN above normal in NW Scotland W Eire and SE England elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 151215
TEMP: Season: normal
APR normal MAY normal JUN normal locally below far SW England and NE England coast
PPN: Season: above normal
APR above normal MAY above normal JUN normal for SW of England, Wales S and E Eire and N Ireland elsewhere above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 091215
TEMP: Season: near normal
PPN: Season: Wales, SW England, N and E Eire, N Ireland and NE Scotland normal elsewhere above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011215
TEMP: Season: near normal
PPN: Season: mostly normal but NW Scotland, and far SE above normal and SW Eire below

Korea APCC - 241215
Temp: Season 40to 50% prob above normal
APR normal locally above away from NW MAY normal locally above away from NW JUN normal
PPN : Season normal
APR normal MAY normal JUN normal



USA - IRI - 171215 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: even by IRI standards this is exceptional most of UK and Eire over 70% prob for above normal with N Ireland NE Scotland and parts of SE England over 60%
PPN : mostly no signal - similar probs above/normal/below but for SE England above normal 40 to 45% probs.


BCC China - 171215
TEMP: Season: near normal to slightly above
PPN: Season: near normal to slightly above


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 071215
TEMP: Season Eire normal elsewhere above normal
APR N Scotland slightly above normal elsewhere above normal MAY near normal JUN above normal
PPN : Season near normal
APR NW below normal elsewhere normal MAY SW below normal NW above normal elsewhere normal JUN normal



MAY JUN JUL -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 211215
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in Eire W and central Scotland NW England and far SE England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 151215
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: SW England normal elsewhere above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 091215
TEMP: Season: near normal
PPN: Season: normal but W Eire and S Midlands above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011215
TEMP: Season: near normal
PPN: Season: mostly normal but NW Scotland, S Eire locally below


BCC China - 171215
TEMP: Season: near normal to above normal in N and W
PPN: Season: near normal to slightly below


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 071215
TEMP:
MAY near normal JUN above normal JUL above normal
PPN :
MAY SW below normal NW above normal elsewhere normal JUN normal JUL normal but Eire below



Summer 2016 JUN JUL AUG -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Comment 171215 - hints at near normal to warmer than normal Summer with some agreement about July being warmer than normal.


NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 211215
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in Eire W and central Scotland NW England and far SE England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 151215
TEMP: Season: near normal locally below in far SW Cornwall and near coast NE England
PPN: Season: normal but above in W Eire central and W Scotland NW England and midlands



BCC China - 171215
TEMP: Season: Scotland and N Ireland above normal, Eire normal, elsewhere slightly below normal
PPN: Season: near normal to slightly above in Eire and far S England perhaps slightly below in far N Scotland


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 071215
TEMP:
JUN above normal JUL above normal AUG near normal slightly above in far N and far SW
PPN :
JUN normal JUL normal but Eire below AUG normal but NW UK above


Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 101215
Monthly data suggests S of UK probably drier and warmer than normal.
TEMP: SEASON: above normal
PPN: SEASON: near normal



JUL AUG SEP -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


BCC China - 171215
TEMP: Season: Scotland and N Ireland above normal, elsewhere slightly below normal
PPN: Season: slightly above



AUG SEP OCT -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


BCC China - 171215
TEMP: Season: Scotland, N Ireland and Eire above normal, elsewhere slightly below normal
PPN: Season: near normal or slightly above in places


NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normals is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR – 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

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