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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK area - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous summary - NOVEMBER 2014 data
Current issue

Summary of internationally available experimental Forecasts for Month ahead and Seasons ahead based on data available December 2014

Updated 251214. Main updates are noted on Twitter @T2mike


This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest

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DECEMBER data from the GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES
All December data now available NO Further DECEMBER updates likely



Sites with no data
Russia WEB SITE WORKING again 231014 not avilable since 040914
USA - FSU GSM COAPS seasonal anoms WEB SITE NOT UPDATING since AUG2014
KMA - no EU data using APCC



CFS2 temperature plots for 42 weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 00Z on date shown



SEASONAL FORECAST
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).



JAN FEB MAR 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Comment - slightly increased signal for some colder solutions but overall near normal temps likely. PPN mostly near or above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 221214
TEMP: Season: normal
JAN normal FEB normal but Eire below normal MAR normal
PPN: Season: above normal but normal for N and E Scotland and NE England
JAN above normal exceot NE Scotland normal FEB Eire, Wales and S two thirds of England above normal elsewhere normal but W Scotland may be below MAR normal but above Wales and SW England, Eire and SW Scotland.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 071214
TEMP: Season: NORMAL far SE England above
JAN S Scotland England and Wales above normal elsewhere normal FEB normal MAR normal
PPN: Season: above normal but NE Scotland, N Ireland and most of Eire normal
JAN above normal FEB normal but S Eire below and S/SE England above MAR normal but W Eire and NW Scotland below APR normal but SW England and SE Eire below MAY normal but E of England above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011214
TEMP: Season: normal
JAN normal but England and Wales above normal FEB normal MAR normal
PPN: Season: Normal but above in NW England Wales and SW England and also far SE England
JAN above normal FEB normal but Eire below normal MAR normal but NW Scotland below




UKMO contingency 201214
TEMP:
JAN 2015 - mean value close to or slightly above normal. Three clusters, above normal, near or slightly below and well below normal. Slightly enhanced probs for well below normal. (UKMO states below normal)
JAN FEB MAR - mean value near normal, two clusters slightly above and slightly below normal - slightly below favoured (Met Office states no signal from climate probs)
PPN:
JAN 2015 - mean value slightly below normal with enhanced probs for below normal - probs for above normal around 30%
JAN FEB MAR - mean value near normal but slightly enhanced probs for above normal

UKMO - 091214 - some indication of enhanced westerly upper flow. Output suggestive of mobile westerly types.
TEMP: Normal or above normal. Prob below normal less than 20%. Enhanced probs for well above normal over England, S Wales and NE Scotland.
PPN : Normal or above normal. Above normal more likely with enhanced probs for well above normal highest probs in far SW and S England.
PSML: below normal pressure more likely especially aross the N.


BCC China - start date 011214 issued 151214 -
TEMP: Season: normal but slightly above in W and S
PPN: Season: Eire and Scotland slightly above normal elsewgere slightly below or normal


Korea APCC - 241214
Temp: Season low probs above normal
JAN 40% prob above normal FEB less thabn 40% prob above normal MAR less thabn 40% prob above normal
PPN : Season low probs above normal mainly N and E
JAN 40% prob above normal in N lower probs elsewhere FEB 40% England below normal elsewhere lower probs MAR 40% above normal in N elsewhere lower probs


USA - IRI - forecasts tends to be overly warm - 201214
Temp: 40 to 50% prob for above normal
PPN : no signal for a departure from climatic norms


Japan JMA 151214
Temp: Season slightly above normal except Eire/N Ireland slightly below
JAN slightly above normal except Eire/N Ireland slightly below FEB slightly below normal except far SE slightly above MAR slightly above
PPN : Season slightly above normal
JAN slightly above normal FEB slightly above normal MAR slightly below except Eire and SW England slightly above
PMSL: Season below normal (W mean)
JAN below normal (Strong WSW) FEB below normal (W or WNW) MAR slightly below in N and slightly above in S (WNW)


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 091214
TEMP: Season Eire, N and W Scotland below normal. E and SE England above elsewhere normal probs.
JAN normal but SE Scotland, England and Wales above normal FEB Eire, N and W Scotland also SW Wales below normal elsewhere normal MAR Eire, N Ireland, W Scotland below normal elsewhere normal
PPN : Season above in many areas Eire and some central areas normal
JAN normal but NE and SW UK above FEB Normal but Scotland below and far SW England above MAR above normal especially NW Scotland


Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes 101214
Temp: slightly above normal especially Scotland
PPN : near normal
PMSL: slightly above normal
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: normal slightly above NE half Scotland
PPN : near normal but slightly above normal SW England, far SE England, W Half Eire and N Scotland


Russia 011214
Temp: Near normal to slightly above in E and SW
PPN : Near normal but a hint at slightly below in far NW and above for S half of UK and Eire.


The US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) is an experimental multi-model seasonal forecasting system consisting of coupled models from US modeling centers including NOAA/NCEP, NOAA/GFDL (NEW GFDL FLORa06 and b01 included March 2014), IRI, NCAR, NASA, and Canada's CMC.
USA Seasonal combined ensemble NMME : Anomaly ranges for CFS2 different from CPC web.

Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 091214
TEMP: SEASON: above normal but Eire normal

PPN: SEASON: near normal but mo probs above in N

NOTE: NOTE NASA GEOS5 and NCAR CCSM4 go for cold solutions
.


Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 091214
TEMP: SEASON: SE / E England above normal elsewhere normal


PPN: SEASON: normal but above in S

CFS2 and NMME test graphics
CFS2 MAX MIN





CFS2 PPN



NMME MAX and MIN




NMME TEMP:



NMME PPN:





FEB MAR APR 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 221214
TEMP: Season: normal
FEB normal but Eire below normal MAR normal APR normal
PPN: Season: above normal but normal for N Eire, N Ireland, Scotland and N England
FEB Eire, Wales and S two thirds of England above normal elsewhere normal but W Scotland may be below MAR normal but above Wales and SW England, Eire and SW Scotland APR normal but above in SW England, N and NE England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 071214
TEMP: Season: NORMAL
FEB normal MAR normal APR normal
PPN: Season: NORMAL but S Eire below and far SE England above
FEB normal but S Eire below and S/SE England above MAR normal but W Eire and NW Scotland below APR normal but SW England and SE Eire below

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011214
TEMP: Season: normal
FEB normal MAR normal APR normal
PPN: Season: Normal but below normal for SW half of Eire and hint at W Scotland
FEB normal but Eire below normal MAR normal but NW Scotland below APR normal but Wales, S England and S half Eire below normal



UKMO - 091214
TEMP: near normal near Atlantic coasts elsewhere above normal. Enhanced probs for well above normal except in W.
PPN : near normal or above only slightly enhanced probs for well above normal
PSML: slightly enhanced probs for below normal in N but hints at possible above in S might indicate later in period less mobility


BCC China - start date 011214 issued 151214 -
TEMP: Season: normal but slightly above in W
PPN: Season: normal or slightly below


USA - IRI - forecasts tends to be overly warm - 201214
Temp: 40 locally 45 to 50% prob for above normal
PPN : no signal for a departure from climatic norms


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 091214
TEMP: Season Eire, N and W Scotland below, SE England above elsewhere normal
FEB Eire, N and W Scotland also SW Wales below normal elsewhere normal MAR Eire, N Ireland, W Scotland below normal elsewhere normal APR England Wales S Scotland above normal elsewhere normal
PPN : Season mostly above central parts of England normal
FEB Normal but Scotland below and far SW England above MAR above normal especially NW Scotland APR above normal



Spring MAR APR MAY 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 221214
TEMP: Season: normal
MAR normal APR normal MAY below normal but normal for NE Scotland SW England and SW Eire
PPN: Season: normal but above in SW England
MAR normal but above Wales and SW England, Eire and SW Scotland APR normal but above in SW England, N and NE England MAY near normal perhaps above in far SE England

TEMP: Season: NORMAL
MAR normal APR normal MAY normal
PPN: Season: NORMAL
MAR normal but W Eire and NW Scotland below APR normal but SW England and SE Eire below MAY normal but E of England above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011214
TEMP: Season: normal
MAR normal APR normal MAY normal
PPN: Season: Normal
MAR normal but NW Scotland below APR normal but Wales, S England and S half Eire below normal MAY normal but most of England and SE Wales above normal



UKMO - 091214 - trend to less mobile patters but colder types not suggested to be dominant.
TEMP: near or above normal with above normal favoured. Sightly enhnaced probs for well above and low probs for well below.
PPN : Hint at less ppn in N but risk of above normal in S, otherwise near normal
PSML: normal ranges but hint at above normal in N - trend to less cyclonic less mobile types


BCC China - start date 011214 issued 151214 -
TEMP: Season: normal but slightly above in W
PPN: Season: normal or slightly below


USA - IRI - forecasts tends to be overly warm - 201214
Temp: 40 but N and E 45 to 50% prob for above normal
PPN : no signal for a departure from climatic norms


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 091214
TEMP: Season NW Scotland below, SE England above elsewhere normal.
MAR Eire, N Ireland, W Scotland below normal elsewhere normal APR England Wales S Scotland above normal elsewhere normal MAY England Wales S Scotland above normal elsewhere normal
PPN : Season normal but N Eire/N Ireland and Scotland above
MAR above normal especially NW Scotland APR above normal MAY below normal


CFS2 MAX MIN




CFS2 PPN







APR MAY JUN 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 221214
TEMP: Season: normal
APR normal MAY below normal but normal for NE Scotland SW England and SW Eire JUN normal
PPN: Season: normal
APR normal but above in SW England, N and NE England MAY near normal perhaps above in far SE England JUN normal but above in central Eire SW Scotland and below locally in N Scotland and E England.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 071214
TEMP: Season: NORMAL
PPN: Season: NORMAL but central Eire and NW Scotland below normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011214
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: Normal



BCC China - start date 011214 issued 151214 -
TEMP: Season: normal but slightly above in W and SW
PPN: Season: normal or slightly below


USA - IRI - forecasts tends to be overly warm - 201214
Temp: 40 to 45% prob for above normal some areas normal 40% prob - unusually cool for this model
PPN : no signal for a departure from climatic norms


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 091214
TEMP:
APR England Wales S Scotland above normal elsewhere normal MAY England Wales S Scotland above normal elsewhere normal JUN all areas below normal especially the N.
PPN:
APR above normal MAY below normal JUN NW half of UK and Eire above elsewhere normal



MAY JUN JUL 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 221214
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 071214
TEMP: Season: NORMAL
PPN: Season: NORMAL but far SE England above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011214
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: Normal but Central and SE England above normal


BCC China - start date 011214 issued 151214 -
TEMP: Season: slightly above normal
PPN: Season: N Scotland slightly above elsewhere normal or slightly below


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 091214
TEMP:
MAY England Wales S Scotland above normal elsewhere normal JUN all areas below normal especially the N. JUL Eire/N Ireland Scotland and SW England below elsewhere normal
PPN :
MAY below normal JUN NW half of UK and Eire above elsewhere normal JLY S normal elsewhere above



Summer JUN JUY AUG 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 221214
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in central Eire S Scotland and NW England



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 091214
TEMP:
JUN all areas below normal especially the N. JUL Eire/N Ireland Scotland and SW England below elsewhere normal AUG normal locally below in far NW.
PPN :
JUN NW half of UK and Eire above elsewhere normal JLY S normal elsewhere above


BCC China - start date 011214 issued 151214 -
TEMP: Season: near normal but slightly below in N of UK and Eire and slightly above elsewhere
PPN: Season: normal but Eire slightly below and N Scotland slightly above




NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normals is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR – 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

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