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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK area - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous summary - JULY 2015 data
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Summary of internationally available experimental Seasonal Forecasts for UK and Eire for 1 and 3 month periods

Updated 250815. Main updates are noted on Twitter @T2mike


This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest


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AUGUST data awaited from the GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES

USA - NCEP CFS2 (periodic updates dates used shown), India Met Office IMO missing.

Data sources available date: USA - NCEP CFS2 (010815 100815 180815 230815), Russia 010815, USA NASA GMAO GSFC 110815, UKMO seasonal 100815, US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) 110815, NMME and CFS2 graphics 110815, Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS) 130815, US International IMME 170815, BCC China 170815, Japan JMA 160815, USA - IRI 210815, Korea APCC 250815, UKMO Contingency 250815.





CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 00Z on date shown



SEASONAL FORECAST
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).



Autumn SEP OCT NOV 2015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Summary - 170815 - fair agreement for move to wetter period in second half of this 3 month periods and for temps to recover a little especially in E and S though still with the risk of below normal values (especially N and W) due to cold Atlantic Sea temps.

IRI Statistical data for El Nino UK PPN - 030815 - suggests drier than normal for N Eire and much of Scotland 60% prob for Highlands. Wetter than normal across SW England, Wales and parts of Midlands 40-50% prob. Normal elsewhere.IRI climate impacts.


NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceeding 10 days

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 230815
TEMP: Season: near normal
SEP normal OCT normal but parts of Midlands and E England above NOV normal but Wales and S England above
PPN: Season: above normal but normal for NE Scotland and SE England
SEP normal but locally below in NE Scotland, NE England and SE England OCT normal but locally below in SE England and above in Scotland NOV well above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 180815
TEMP: Season: Wales and S half England above normal elsewhere normal
SEP normal but far SE England above normal OCT normal b ut N half Scotland, Midland and E England above normal NOV above normal
PPN: Season: normal but above normal in S Scotland, NW England, SW England and most of Eire.
SEP normal but below nrmal for Scotland N Ireland and SE England OCT normal but above for SW and S Central England, NW England, S and W Scotland and most of Eire NOV above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 100815
TEMP: Season: normal
SEP normal OCT normal NOV normal but above normal in Wales and S half of England except SW
PPN: Season: above normal
SEP normal locally below in SW Eire, W Scotland and Cornwall OCT above normal NOV normal in E Eire and E England elsewhere above normal DEC NE England normal elsewhere above JAN E England normal elsewhere above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010815
TEMP: Season: normal
SEP normal locally colder NE England OCT normal NOV Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere milder than normal
PPN: Season: near normal but Eire, Wales, NW England and Scotland above normal
SEP SE third of England and NE Scotland normal elsewhere below normal OCT SE and E England normal elsewhere above normal NOV above normal



UKMO contingency 250815
TEMP: Widespread below normal North Atlantic sea temps may play a part in reducing temps.
SEP model solutions clumped almost equally in above normal and below normal with reduced probs for near normal hence very uncertain outcome. Most runs are cooler than Sept 2014.
SEASON Enhanced probs of being well above normal. Probs roughly 35/20/45 % below/normal/above. Almost all runs are cooler than Sept OCT Nov 2014
PPN:
SEP large spread in ensemble solutions perhaps slightly favouring wet or very wet but almost a 50/50 split between wettter/drier. About 36/25/39 % of solutions below/near/above normal. Near all plots are wetter than 2014 which was a dry month.
SEASON Little signal possibly a hint at wetter. About 37/28/35 % of solutions below/near/above normal. More solutions are wetter than the 2014 season.


Korea APCC - 250815
Temp: Season Eire, N Ireland and parts of Scotland below normal elsewhere near normal
SEP below normal but far SE near normal OCT near normal locally below in N and NW NOV near normal
PPN : Season N and E normal elsewhere above normal
SEP near normal OCT near normal but above in SW NOV Scotland near normal elsewhere above (especially SW)


USA - IRI - 210815 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: 50% prob above normal up top over 70% in N and E of UK.
PPN : no sig differences from normal probs for above/normal/below


BCC China - 170815 -
TEMP: Season: slightly above normal
PPN: Season: near normal/slightly above


Japan JMA 160815
Temp: Season slightly below normal
SEP slightly below normal OCT slightly below normal NOV slightly below normal
PPN : Season slightly above normal
SEP England and E Scotland slightly below elsewhere slightly above OCT Scotland N Ireland and Eire slightly below normal elsewhere slightly above NOV slightly above normal
PMSL: Season slightly below normal (WSW mean)
SEP slightly above normal (WSW) OCT slightly below normal WSW NOV below normal (strong W)


Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes 130815
Temp: N and W below normal elsewhere normal
PPN : N Ireland W Scotland and Wales above normal elsewhere normal
PMSL: Eire slightly above elsewhere slightly below
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: Below normal except SE England near normal
PPN : near normal but far NE Scotland below normal
PMSL:


UKMO - 100815
TEMP: England above normal most likely elsewhere normal but risk colder in NW. Enhanced probs for well above normal except in NW of UK
PPN : mixed signal with indications of well above and well below normal, perhaps slightly hinting at the NW being well above
PSML: Hint at higher than normal pressure across except in Scotland where near normal indicated


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 110815
TEMP: Season normal but below normal in SE England, SW England, W Wales, Eire and N Ireland, W and NW Scotland
SEP below normal OCT near normal locally below in SW and near Atlantic coasts NOV near normal
PPN : Season near normal
SEP normal but Scotland, N Ireland and Eire below normal OCT above normal but N and E normal NOV normal but S and E England below normal


Russia 010815
Temp: Near normal or similar probs for above/normal/below but far N colder and S coastal areas of England milder.
PPN : Scotland, N Ireland, Eire, Wales, SW and NW England above normal elsewhere similar probs for above/normal/below




The US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) is an experimental multi-model seasonal forecasting system consisting of coupled models from US modeling centers including NOAA/NCEP, NOAA/GFDL, NCAR, NASA, and Canada's CMC. See - BAMS article describing the project (Kirtman et al. 2014) . NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.
USA Seasonal combined ensemble NMME : Anomaly ranges for CFS2 different from CPC web.


Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 110815
TEMP: SEASON: near normal but NW UK below normal, probs suggest Eire, N Ireland Scotland and parts of NW England and W Wales may also be below normal. SEE charts below for month by month data.

PPN: SEASON: within the normal span although prob charts suggest below normal all areas - SEE charts below for month by month data.


Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 170815

TEMP: SEASON: near normal far SE slightly above far NW below.
SEP England normal elsewhere below OCT normak NOV N Ireland, Eire an Scotland normal elsewhere above
PPN: SEASON: near normal
SEP: below normal OCT : Normal NOV: above normal



Graphics
CFS2 MAX MIN





CFS2 TEMP



CFS2 PPN




NMME MAX and MIN not available





NMME TEMP:




Ploted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp mean anomaly 080815 data from NOAA NCEP CPC server

NMME TEMP PROBS:



NMME PPN:



Ploted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS means Precip anomaly (ignore scale) 080815 data from NOAA NCEP CPC server



OCT NOV DEC 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Summary - Temps near perhaps becoming above normal. A wetter than normal period hence increased flood risk (also storms).



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 230815
TEMP: Season: Wales and S half of England above normal elsewhere normal
OCT normal but parts of Midlands and E England above NOV normal but Wales and S England above DEC above normal locally normal NW Eire
PPN: Season: above normal
OCT normal but locally below in SE England and above in Scotland NOV well above normal DEC NE Scotland normal elsewhere above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 180815
TEMP: Season: above normal but Eire, N Ireland and NE Scotland normal
OCT normal b ut N half Scotland, Midland and E England above normal NOV above normal DEC Normal but S of England above normal
OCT above normal NOV normal in E Eire and E England elsewhere above normal DEC NE England normal elsewhere above

USA - NCEP CFS2 -100815
TEMP: Season: normal but above in S of England
OCT normal NOV normal but above normal in Wales and S half of England except SW DEC E England normal elsewhere above
PPN: Season: above normal
OCT above normal NOV normal in E Eire and E England elsewhere above normal DEC NE England normal elsewhere above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010815
TEMP: Season: above normal for Wales, S half England and SE Eire elsewhere normal
OCT normal NOV Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere milder than normal DEC N Scotland normal elsewhere milder than normal
PPN: Season: above normal especially Scotland and Eire
OCT SE and E England normal elsewhere above normal NOV above normal DEC above normal locally normal in E of England



USA - IRI - 210815 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: mostly above normal 40% prob up to 70% in far N Scotland and 50% plus ensewhere in Scotland and far E/SE of England
PPN : Scotland 40% prob below normal eslsewhere no signal


BCC China - 170815 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: above normal


UKMO - 100815
TEMP: Above normal more than 60% prob except for Eire and N Scotland. Enhanced probs for well above normal.
PPN : Above normal across the NW, near normal elsewhere. Enhanced probs for well above normal except much of England away from SW
PSML: normal or below normal most likely - chance of well below across N half of UK.


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 110815
TEMP: Season normal
OCT near normal locally below in SW and near Atlantic coasts NOV near normal DEC near normal but Eire, N Ireland and W Scotland below
PPN : Season normal but Eire and W of UK above normal
OCT above normal but N and E normal NOV normal but S and E England below normal DEC normal but parts of S and W UK and W Eire above



NOV DEC 2015 JAN 2016 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 230815
TEMP: Season: normal but above normal for SE Eire, Wales and S half England
NOV normal but Wales and S England above DEC above normal locally normal NW Eire JAN above normal locally normal NW Eire and NE Scotland
PPN: Season: NE Scotland normal elsewhere above
NOV well above normal DEC NE Scotland normal elsewhere above JAN Scotland and N Ireland normal elsewhere above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 180815
TEMP: Season: above normal
NOV above normal DEC Normal but S of England above normal JAN above normal especially in SW
PPN: Season: above normal
NOV normal in E Eire and E England elsewhere above normal DEC NE England normal elsewhere above JAN E England normal elsewhere above

USA - NCEP CFS2 -100815
TEMP: Season: above normal
NOV normal but above normal in Wales and S half of England except SW DEC E England normal elsewhere above JAN above normal
PPN: Season: above normal but E ofEngland normal
NOV normal in E Eire and E England elsewhere above normal DEC NE England normal elsewhere above JAN E England normal elsewhere above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010815
TEMP: Season: above normal strongest signal in S
NOV Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere milder than normal DEC N Scotland normal elsewhere milder than normal JAN above normal S half of England and Wales markedly milder.
PPN: Season: Above normal especially in western areas
NOV above normal DEC above normal locally normal in E of England JAN above normal



USA - IRI - 210815 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: mostly above normal 40% prob up to 50% far S and far N of UK.
PPN : no signal


BCC China - 170815 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: near normal in S above in N


UKMO - 100815
TEMP: N/NW of UK and Eire near normal elsewhere above with chance of well above normal.
PPN : above or well above normal most likely
PSML: Slightly enhanced probs for well above in S and well below in N - could imply windy/changeable.


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 110815
TEMP: Season near normal but Eire, N Ireland and W Scotland below normal
NOV near normal DEC near normal but Eire, N Ireland and W Scotland below JAN SE England normal elsewhere colder
PPN : Season normal but SW parts of UK above normal
NOV normal but S and E England below normal DEC normal but parts of S and W UK and W Eire above JAN normal but S of England above and NW Scotland below normal


Winter 2015 DEC 2016 JAN FEB ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Summary - 250815 - APCC Korea also hints at drier in N later in winter.
Summary - 170815 - Fair agreement in milder and wetter than normal especially early in winter. Hint of less mild trending colder than normal in Feb probably not in S though. Some indication of the N becoming nearer normal precip. Slightly increased hill snow risk Eire/N Ireland/ N Wales and N England/S Scotland later in Winter.



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 230815
TEMP: Season: NE Scotland normal elsewhere above
DEC above normal locally normal NW Eire JAN above normal locally normal NW Eire and NE Scotland FEB above normal but normal in Scotland N Ireland Eire and N England
PPN: Season: NE Scotland normal elsewhere above
DEC NE Scotland normal elsewhere above JAN Scotland and N Ireland normal elsewhere above FEB above normal locally normal in the E of central England and SW Eire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 180815
TEMP: Season: above normal
DEC Normal but S of England above normal JAN above normal especially in SW FEB N Scotland normal elsewhere above and S of England well above
PPN: Season: above normal
DEC NE England normal elsewhere above JAN E England normal elsewhere above FEB above normal but far N Scotland normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 -100815
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010815
TEMP: Season: N half Scotland normal elsewhere above normal
PPN: Season: Above normal especially SW England and S Eire



Korea APCC - 250815
Temp: Season Near normal
DEC near normal JAN near normal FEB near normal
PPN : Season near normal but in the S above normal
DEC N normal S above JAN near normnal but N Scotland below FEB Scotland, N Ireland and N Eire below elsewhere normal


USA - IRI - -forecasts tends to be overly warm - hence this is signal for below normal temps
Temp: no signal but Scotland 40% prob above normal
PPN : SW Eire 40% prob below normal elsewhere no signal


BCC China - 170815 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: slightly above normal but nerar normal in S


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 110815
TEMP Season: Below normal
DEC near normal but Eire, N Ireland and W Scotland below JAN SE England normal elsewhere colder FEB below or well below normal
PPN: Season normal but NW below normal and perhaos far SW above.
DEC normal but parts of S and W UK and W Eire above JAN normal but S of England above and NW Scotland below normal FEB normal but below normal for W Scotland and W Eire


Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 110815
TEMP: SEASON: near normal or slightly above. SEE charts below for month by month data.

PPN: SEASON: near normal but above in SW England W Wales NE England and SE Scotland - SEE charts below for month by month data.


Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 170815

TEMP: SEASON: S and E England above esewhere near normal.
DEC: Eire, N Ireland N and W Scotland normal elsewhere above JAN: England and Wales above normal elsewhere normal FEB: S England above normal eslewhere normal
PPN: SEASON: above normal but far N Scotland normal
DEC: E England normal elsewhere above normal JAN: N Scotland normal eslewhere above FEB: N Ireland, Eire and Scotland normal elsewhere above normal



IRI Statistical data for El Nino UK PPN IRI climate impacts.


Graphics 110815
CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP





CFS2 TEMP



CFS2 PPN




NMME MAX and MIN





NMME TEMP:




UK area Ploted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN mean anomaly 080815




NMME TEMP PROBS:



NMME PPN:





2016 JAN FEB MAR ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 230815
TEMP: Season: Wales and southern two thirds of England above normal elsewhere near normal
PPN: Season: above normal but normal for N Eire, N Ireland and NE Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 180815
TEMP: Season: N Scotland normal eslewhere above normal
PPN: Season: above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 -100815
TEMP: Season: normal but above normal for SE Enre Wales and most of England except the N.
PPN: Season: above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010815
TEMP: Season: Wales and S half of England abiove normal elsewhere normal
PPN: Season: N of Scotland and N of Eire/N Ireland normal elsewhere above normal



BCC China - 170815 -
TEMP: Season: slightly above normal but near normal in far N
PPN: Season: above normal in N below in S elsewhere near normal



Spring 2016 MAR APR MAY ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


BCC China - 170815 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: below normal but normal in N


NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normals is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR – 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE. with the the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

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