SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE

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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK and Eire area - updated as new data becomes available. Previous summary - March 2020 data

Summary of experimental Seasonal Forecasts for the UK and Eire



Updated 270420 (ddmmyy). Typically updated on Thursday/Friday. Main updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike

This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest



Data awaited from GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES

FINAL UPDATED COMPLETED for APRIL.
Graphics via WMO: Pretoria, Beijing.


Some data will appear from multiple sources e.g. Source country and also ensemble grouping (NMME, WMO or Copernicus). Data sources available on date: USA - NCEP CFS2 (010420 070420 130420210420) Temperature graphics (070420) E3 graphics (070420), Russia 010420, CanSips 010420, USA NASA GMAO GSFC 040420, US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) 070420, NMME and CFS2 graphics 070420, Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS) 100420, UKMO seasonal 110420, Japan JMA 110420, CopernicusEU MME (UKMO MereoFr ECMWF DWD CMCC NCEP) 140420, ECMWF monthly 140420, BCC China 150420, USA - IRI 150420, JAMSTEC 160420, Korea APCC 210420. UKMO Contingency 270420 .

Graphics via WMO: DWD, CMC, BoM, Moscow, CPTEC 100420, UKMO, Seoul, Washington, Tokyo, Toulouse, ECMWF, WMO multi ensemble 140420

International IMME no longer available from NCEP - see WMO graphics and Copernicus

Data received after summary written.



Nino 3.4 (plots as available): CFS2 updated daily. NMME Nino 3.4. UKMO Tropical N Atlantic plot and NAO. Click image for details.
ENSO CFS latest ENSO NNME latest
UKMO Tropical N Atlantic




CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 00Z on date shown
Perth Birmingham
Exeter London



SEASONAL FORECAST summary of output for UK and EIRE
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).


To view an attempt at regional detail for SW England click here by about the 20th of each month



MAY JUN JUL

Summary - 170420 - The main signal is for above normal temperatures for the three month season although a number of models hint at near normal. If anything there is a typical signal for near normal in the NW and perhaps W and above normal in E and SE (Area considered is UK N Ireland, and Eire). Rainfall most solutions suggest periods of below average rain, although perhaps not so clear cut for parts of ther SE of England and NW of Scotland. Overall probably many areas seeing below average rain for the season. Above average rain may occur across the south in July and some models have the N of Scotland wetter in May.




NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days. 100KM resolution output. Anomalies wrt 1999-2010 hindcast climatology. (Normal is +/-0.5C from model hindcast mean).

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 210420
TEMP: Season: N Ireland Scotland N and E England above elsewhere normal
MAY above normal JUN above normal JUL normal but NW Scotland above normal
PPN: Season: normal but below in N England and S Scotland
MAY Mostly below normal but normal in SW Midland and central S England JUN normal locally above in W Midlands JUL normal locally below in SE/ E Scotland and NE England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 130420
TEMP: Season: normal but above in NW
MAY above normal but SW England normal JUN above normal but SW England normal JUL normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in W Scotland, W Eire and W Midlands.
MAY below normal but normal in SE England and NW Eire JUN normal locally above in Wales and W coast Scotland but below in SE England and NE Scotland JUL Near N Sea coasts normal elsewhere above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070420
TEMP: Season: normal
MAY normal JUN normal JUL normal but N Ireland and W Scotland above
PPN: Season: normal locally above in Midlands
MAY normal but NE Scotland below and hint of abov in central Eire JUN normal but SW England below and W Scotland above JUL above in Midlands and central southern England also central Eire. Below in SW Eire, Cornwall, NE England, E Scotland and N Ireland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010420
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in Scotland and SE England
MAY normal JUN normal locally above in NW Scotland and SE England JUL normal in S
PPN: Season: normal
MAY normal locally below in SW Scotland and Midlands JUN normal but below in SE Scotland and E and NE England JUL normal but above in W Eire, S Wales and W Midlands




UKMO contingency - 270420
TEMP:
May: Above average. Main cluster between 1 and 2 deg C anomaly. Chance of below average about 15%.
Season: Above average most likely, main cluster near 1 C anonly with second neaer 2 C. Chance of below average less than 10%.
PPN:
May: Below average most likely - about 30% of solutions are above average. Note range of solutions extend drier and wetter than the climatology (1981-2010).
Season: Drier than average most likely. About 25-30% of solutions are above average. Three clusters one slightly above normal and two below. Three solutions are below the observed values 1981-2010.




Korea APCC - 210420
Temp: Season above normal
MAY above normal JUN above normal JUL above normal
PPN : Season below normal
MAY SE below normal elsewhere no signal JUN N and W below normal elsewhere no signal JUL E England below normal elsewhere no signal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m Second generation coupled model. 24 members. Atmospheric component is BCC_AGCM2.2 at T106 horizontal resolution (about 1 degree) and 26 vertical layer.
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150420 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
MAY above normal JUN above normal JUL above normal
PPN: Season: below normal
MAY below normal JUN below normal JUL below normal



USA - IRI - 150420 -
Temp: Most of England and Wales above normal elsewhere no signal/normal
PPN : No signal but parts of SW below and above in parts of NW Eire and NE England



Copernicus C3S - new climate sizes and additional models November 2018
From November 2018, hindcast period 1993-2016. (Previously hindcast period is 1993-2015 for ECMWF and Met Office and 1993-2014 for Meteo-France).
Mean anomaly near normal (+/-0.2C). Tercile signal then quintile. (U/LQ=upper/lower quintile, UT/MT/LT= upper/middle/lower tercile).
Data available 130420
Copernicus(EU) C3S multi model ensemble -
TEMP: Mostly above normal but normal in N and W Eire and N Ireland
PPN: normal but S may be below
PMSL: N normal elsewhere above
CMCC(IT) 50 members 960 climate size -
TEMP: normal locally below in S Eire and W Wales
PPN: normal but above in parts of Eire and Wales
PMSL: S above N normal
DWD(DE) 50 members 720 climate size -
TEMP: mostly above normal
PPN: mostly belopw normal but S normal
PMSL: above normal
ECMWF(EU) 51 members 600 climate size -
TEMP: SE above and far NW below elsewhere near normal
PPN: S below normal elsewhere niormal but far NE Scotland could be above
PMSL: above normal
UKMO(GB) 50 members 672 climate size -
TEMP: mostly near normal but SW Wales and S Eire below and SE England above
PPN: above normal but normal in parts of S England, N England and Scotland ecept W coast.
PMSL: S above elsewhere nornal
METEO FRANCE(FR) 51 members 600 climate size -
TEMP: normal but S and E above
PPN: normal locally below in W Eire and part of S Ebgland but above in NE England
PMSL: Eire and N Scotland normal elsewhere above
NCEP 52 members 384 climate size (added OCT 2019)
TEMP: above normal
PPN: normal but N below
PMSL: normal (below to S and above to N of UK)




UKMO (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg [50km] resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks [42 members] 85 levels 75 ocean levels)
UKMO - 110420 -
TEMP: near normal locally above in E England
PPN : North and parts of East or NE may be above normal elsewhere probably normal but chance of belopw in far S.
PSML: S above normal elsewhere normal



Japan JMA (June 2015 - 51 member ensemble accumulated (13+13+13+12) over 15 days run 5 days apart at 110km resolution) - 110420
Temp: Season above normal
MAY above normal JUN above normal JUL above normal
PPN : Season below normal
MAY below normal JUN below normal JUL below normal
PMSL: Season above normal (weak W)
MAY above normal (Weak W) JUN above normal (weak NW) JUL above normal (weak NW)



Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes - 100420
Temp: normal but chance of above near N Sea coast
PPN : normal
PMSL: Above to SW below in NE
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: normal but above in E England
PPN : normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 040420
TEMP:
MAY above normal JUN above normal JUL above normal
PPN :
MAY below normal JUN below normal but SE England above normal JUL W Scotland below elsewhere above normal



Meteorological Service of Canada, CanSIPS forecasts are based on a 10-member ensemble of forecasts produced with each of two CCCma climate models for a total ensemble size of 20. Hindcast period 1981 to 2010. CanSips is included in the NMME.
CanSIPS 010420
TEMP:
MAY above normal JUN above normal JUL above normal
PPN :
MAY normal locally below in SE England, N of Eire, N Ireland and W Scotland JUN normal but below in Scotland and NE England JUL Scotland, N Ireland and N Eire normal elsewhere below



Russia 010420
Temp: W below E above elsewhere uncertain
PPN : below normal



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME - NCEPCFSv2 CanCM4i GEMNEMO GFDLFLOR GFDLCM2.1 NCARCCSM4 NASAGEOS5b2) ex NOAA date - 080420
TEMP: SEASON: above normal
MAY above normal JUN above normal JUL above normal
PPN: SEASON: below normal
MAY JUN JUL



CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN7 TN2 TN3

TN8 TN5 TN6

NASA anomaly .
200

ECMWF monthly
200

EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P

200hPa CFS2 mean height, anomaly NMME anomaly 200hPa data 1 deg grib

200


WMO April 2020 data
WMO combined multi model monthly - model probability OR anomaly.

Probability combined.
200

CPTEC Brazil monthly
200

BOM monthly
200

Canada monthly
200

Moscow monthly
200

DWD monthly
200

UKMO monthly
200

SEOUL monthly
200

Tokyo monthly
200

Toulouse monthly
200

Washington monthly
200

ECMWF monthly low resolution model probability of anomaly from WMO
200





2020 JUN JUL AUG

Summary - 170420 -
Temperature near normal or slightly above normal the stronger anomalies may be in the E or SE of England. For the UK as a whole the summer probably seeing near normal rainfall. Some areas could see above average rain, the higher totals possibly in the NW of UK in May and in the south of the UK in July and August.




USA - NCEP CFS2 - 210420
TEMP: Season: normal but above in NW Scotland
JUN above normal JUL normal but NW Scotland above normal AUG normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in Central W Eire, SW England, S Wales and SW Midlands
JUN normal locally above in W Midlands JUL normal locally below in SE/ E Scotland and NE England AUG above noprnal but normal in S and E Scotland, E and SE England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 130420
TEMP: Season: normal
JUN above normal but SW England normal JUL normal AUG normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in W Scotland, W Eire and W Midlands.
JUN normal locally bove in Wales and W coast Scotland but below in SE England and NE Scotland JUL Near N Sea coasts normal elsewhere above AUG normal but above in NW Scotlandand W Eire but below in Wales and E England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070420
TEMP: Season: normal
JUN normal JUL normal but N Ireland and W Scotland above AUG normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in Midlands
JUN normal but SW England below and W Scotland above JUL above in Midlands and central southern England also central Eire. Below in SW Eire, Cornwall, NE England, E Scotland and N Ireland AUG normal locally above in W Scotland and SW England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010420
TEMP: Season:normal locally above in W Scotland
JUN normal locally above in NW Scotland and SE England JUL normal in S AUG normal locally above in NW Scotland
PPN: Season: normal
JUN normal but below in SE Scotland and E and NE England JUL normal but above in W Eire, S Wales and W Midlands AUG normal but above in Mmidlands and below in W Scotland, N Ireland and W Eire






Korea APCC - 210420
Temp:
JUN above normal JUL above normal AUG above normal
PPN :
JUN N and W below normal elsewhere no signal JUL E England below normal elsewhere no signal AUG no signal



JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (27-member ensemble) - 160420
Temp: Season: above normal
PPN : Season: below normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150420 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
JUN above normal JUL above normal AUG above normal
PPN: Season: below normal
JUN below normal JUL below normal AUG below normal but NW UK above normal



USA - IRI - 150420 -
Temp: Normal or no signal
PPN : Most of England and Wales below but above in Eire elsewhere no signal



Data 130420
Copernicus(EU) C3S multi model ensemble -
TEMP: mostly above normal
PPN: normal
PMSL: above normal
CMCC(IT) 50 members 960 climate size -
TEMP: normal but far SE below.
PPN: normal but far N below
PMSL: N above elsewhere normal
DWD(DE) 50 members 720 climate size -
TEMP: above normal
PPN: mostly below normal but S and E normal
PMSL: above normal
ECMWF(EU) 51 members 600 climate size -
TEMP: S above normal, N Below elsewhere normal
PPN: S below elsewhere normal
PMSL: above normal
UKMO(GB) 50 members 672 climate size -
TEMP: normal
PPN: mostly above normal but normal in Wales and SW, central Eair and Scotland except W coast.
PMSL: S above normal elsewhere normal
METEO FRANCE(FR) 51 members 600 climate size -
TEMP: N England and Scotland above normal elsewhere normal
PPN: normal
PMSL: mostly above normal
NCEP 52 members 384 climate size (added OCT 2019)
TEMP: above normal
PPN: normal but N Sea coasts below
PMSL: N above elsewhere normal





UKMO - 110420 -
TEMP: normal but chance that much of the NW of UK could be below normal
PPN : NW Scotland and SE England above average elsewhere near normal.
PSML: Eire, N Ireland, SW Wales and SW of England above normal elsewhere probably normal



Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes - 100420
Temp: normal but chance of above near N Sea coast
PPN : normal
PMSL: Above to SW below in NE
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: normal but above in E England
PPN : normal locally below N Ireland and SW Scotland



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 040420
TEMP:
JUN above normal JUL above normal AUG above normal
PPN :
JUN below normal but SE England above normal JUL W Scotland below elsewhere above normal AUG above normal



CanSIPS 010420
TEMP:
JUN above normal JUL above normal AUG above normal
PPN :
JUN normal but below in Scotland and NE England JUL Scotland, N Ireland and N Eire normal elsewhere below AUG normal locally above in N England and S Scotland



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME - NCEPCFSv2 CanCM4i GEMNEMO GFDLFLOR GFDLCM2.1 NCARCCSM4 NASAGEOS5b2) ex NOAA date - 080420
TEMP: SEASON: above normal
JUN above normal JUL above normal AUG above normal
PPN: SEASON: mostly below
JUN mostly below JUL mostly below AUG mostly below




WMO April 2020 data
WMO combined multi model monthly - model probability OR anomaly.

Probability combined.
200
UKMO monthly
200

ECMWF monthly low resolution model probability of anomaly from WMO
200


EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P

200hPa CFS2 mean height, anomaly NMME anomaly 200hPa data 1 deg grib

200

ECMWF monthly
200 NASA anomaly 050420
200

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN7 TN2 TN3

TN8 TN5 TN6



2020 JUL AUG SEP



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 210420
TEMP:
JUL normal but NW Scotland above normal AUG normal SEP normal
PPN:
JUL normal locally below in SE/ E Scotland and NE England AUG above noprnal but normal in S and E Scotland, E and SE England SEP normal but all England above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 130420
TEMP:
JUL normal AUG normal SEP normal
PPN:
JUL Near N Sea coasts normal elsewhere above AUG normal but above in NW Scotlandand W Eire but below in Wales and E England SEP normal but below in NE Scotland and above in Sw England and S Eire.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070420
TEMP:
JUL normal but N Ireland and W Scotland above AUG normal SEP normal
PPN:
JUN normal but SW England below and W Scotland above JUL above in Midlands and central southern England also central Eire. Below in SW Eire, Cornwall, NE England, E Scotland and N Ireland AUG normal locally above in W Scotland and SW England SEP above nornal but NE Scotland normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010420
TEMP:
JUL normal in S AUG normal locally above in NW Scotland SEP normal locally above in NW Scotland
PPN:
JUL normal but above in W Eire, S Wales and W Midlands AUG normal but above in Mmidlands and below in W Scotland, N Ireland and W Eire SEP above normal but normal in NE Scotland



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150420 -
TEMP:
JUL above normal AUG above normal SEP above normal
PPN:
JUL below normal AUG below normal but NW UK above normal SEP below normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 040420
TEMP:
JUL above normal AUG above normal SEP above normal
PPN :
JUL W Scotland below elsewhere above normal AUG above normal SEP above normal



CanSIPS 010420
TEMP:
JUL above normal AUG above normal SEP above normal but Eire and N Ireland normal
PPN :
JUL Scotland, N Ireland and N Eire normal elsewhere below AUG normal locally above in N England and S Scotland SEP normal locally below in SE England





2020 AUG SEP OCT



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 210420
TEMP:
AUG normal SEP normal OCT normal
PPN:
AUG above noprnal but normal in S and E Scotland, E and SE England SEP normal but all England above OCT normal but below in Eire and parts of SW England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 130420
TEMP:
AUG normal SEP normal OCT normal
PPN:
AUG normal but above in NW Scotlandand W Eire but below in Wales and E England SEP normal but below in NE Scotland and above in Sw England and S Eire. OCT normal but beow in Eire, N Ireland and Scotland.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070420
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: above normal locally normal in NE Scotland and SE England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010420
TEMP: Season:normal locally above in NW Scotland
PPN: Season: above locally normal in NE Scotland and SE England



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150420 -
TEMP:
AUG above normal SEP above normal OCT above normal
PPN:
AUG below normal but NW UK above normal SEP below normal OCT below normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 040420
TEMP:
AUG above normal SEP above normal OCT normal
PPN :
AUG above normal SEP above normal OCT Eire below elsewhere above normal



CanSIPS 010420
TEMP:
AUG above normal SEP above normal but Eire and N Ireland normal OCT above normal
PPN :
AUG normal locally above in N England and S Scotland SEP normal locally below in SE England OCT NW Eire above elsewhere mostly below





2020 SEP OCT NOV

Summary - 170420 - Above normal temperatures are likely overall but near normal values are more likely in October. Rainfall probaly above normal especially in the N and W but with parts of the far S and E of England being less wet.




USA - NCEP CFS2 - 210420
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: above normal but normal in SW England, Scotland, N Ireland and Eire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 130420
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal but below in N Ireland and Scotland.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070420
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in NW Scotland
PPN: Season: above normal locally normal in N and NE Scotland and SE England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010420
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in NW Scotland
PPN: Season: normal but above in Eire W Scotland Wales and W Midlands



JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (27-member ensemble) - 160420
Temp: Season: normal but perhaps above normal in NE
PPN : Season: South above and North below normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150420 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
SEP above normal OCT above normal NOV below normal but locally above in NE
PPN: Season: below normal
SEP below normal OCT below normal NOV below normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 040420
TEMP:
SEP above normal OCT normal NOV above normal
PPN :
SEP above normal OCT Eire below elsewhere above normal NOV above normal



CanSIPS 010420
TEMP:
SEP above normal but Eire and N Ireland normal OCT above normal NOV above normal
PPN :
SEP normal locally below in SE England OCT NW Eire above elsewhere mostly below NOV NW Eire above elsewhere mostly normal b ut below in SW England and NE Scotland



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME - NCEPCFSv2 CanCM4i GEMNEMO GFDLFLOR GFDLCM2.1 NCARCCSM4 NASAGEOS5b2) ex NOAA date - 080420
TEMP: SEASON: above normal
SEP above normal OCT above normal NOV above normal
PPN: SEASON: NW Scotland above elsewhere below
SEP below normal OCT below normal NOV below normal

NASA anomaly
200


EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P



2020 OCT NOV DEC



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 210420
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: above normal in Wales, Midlands and E England and below in SW Eire elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 130420
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal but below in N Ireland and W Scotland.



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150420 -
TEMP:
OCT above normal NOV below normal but locally above in NE DEC above normal
PPN:
OCT below normal NOV below normal DEC below normal



CanSIPS 010420
TEMP:
OCT above normal NOV above normal DEC above normal
PPN :
OCT NW Eire above elsewhere mostly below NOV NW Eire above elsewhere mostly normal b ut below in SW England and NE Scotland DEC N Ireland, Scotland and N England above, SW England and S Eire below elsewhere normal





2020 NOV DEC 2021 JAN


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150420 -
TEMP:
NOV below normal but locally above in NE DEC above normal JAN SW below NE above
PPN:
NOV below normal DEC below normal JAN SW UK above elsewhere below normal



CanSIPS 010420
TEMP:
NOV above normal DEC above normal JAN above normal locally normal in W Scotland
PPN :
NOV NW Eire above elsewhere mostly normal b ut below in SW England and NE Scotland DEC N Ireland, Scotland and N England above, SW England and S Eire below elsewhere normal JAN above normal





2020 DEC 2021 JAN FEB

Summary - 170420 - Limited data - Temperature near or below normal in NW and above normal in SE. Precipitation mostly above normal but seconf half of winter could be less wet chiefly in the S and E.



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150420 -
TEMP: Season: mostly below normal but chance of above in N and E
DEC above normal JAN SW below NE above FEB NE Scotland above normal elsewhere below
PPN: Season: below normal
DEC below normal JAN SW UK above elsewhere below normal FEB far SW above elsewhere below normal



JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (27-member ensemble) - 160420
Temp: Season: NW below normal elsewhere above normal
PPN : Season: above normal



CanSIPS 010420
TEMP:
DEC above normal JAN above normal locally normal in W Scotland FEB above normal locally normal in Scotland and N Ireland
PPN :
DEC N Ireland, Scotland and N England above, SW England and S Eire below elsewhere normal JAN above normal FEB below normal






2021 JAN FEB MAR


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150420 -
TEMP:
JAN SW below NE above FEB NE Scotland above normal elsewhere below MAR above normal
PPN:
JAN SW UK above elsewhere below normal FEB far SW above elsewhere below normal MAR above normal



CanSIPS 010420
TEMP:
JAN above normal locally normal in W Scotland FEB above normal locally normal in Scotland and N Ireland MAR above normal
PPN :
JAN above normal FEB below normal MAR normal





2020 2021 FEB MAR APR


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150420 -
TEMP:
FEB NE Scotland above normal elsewhere below MAR above normal APR NE Scotland above normal elsewhere below
PPN:
FEB far SW above elsewhere below normal MAR above normal APR far SW abov e elsewhere below normal





NOTEs:
1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR; 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data disseminating is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. CMC=Canada Met Center.


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