SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE

Follow @T2mike
Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK and Eire area - updated as new data becomes available. Previous summary - March 2019 data

Summary of experimental Seasonal Forecasts for the UK and Eire



Updated 300419(ddmmyy). Typically updated on Thursday/Friday. Main updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike

This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest



Data awaited from GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES

Al complete.
Graphics via WMO: all complete. Missing data South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) LRF.

Some data will appear from multiple sources e.g. Source country and also ensemble grouping (NMME, WMO or Copernicus). Data sources available on date: USA - NCEP CFS2 (010419 100419 140419 210419) Temperature graphics (140419) E3 graphics (140419), Russia 010419, CanSips 310319, USA NASA GMAO GSFC 040419, US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and NMME and CFS2 graphics 100419, UKMO seasonal 110419, BCC China 110419, Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS) 110419, JAMSTEC main seasons only 130419, KMA 130419, CopernicusEU MME (UKMO MereoFr ECMWF DWD and CMCC) 140419, International IMME 150419, USA - IRI 150419, Japan JMA 160419, Korea APCC 250419, ECMWF monthly 270419, UKMO Contingency 300419.
Graphics via WMO: DWD CMC BoM Moscow 080419. CPTEC 110419. UKMO, Seoul, Washington 120419, Pretoria 150419, Tokyo 180419, Beijing 180419, Toulouse 210419, ECMWF 210419, WMO multi ensemble 210419.

Data received after summary written.



Nino 3.4 (plots as available): CFS2 updated daily. NMME Nino 3.4. UKMO Tropical N Atlantic plot and NAO. Click image for details.
ENSO CFS latest ENSO NNME latest UKMO Tropical N Atlantic




CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 00Z on date shown
Perth Birmingham
Exeter London



SEASONAL FORECAST summary of output for UK and EIRE
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).


To view an attempt at regional detail for SW England click here by about the 20th of each month



2019 MAY JUN JUL

Summary - 190419 - BoM and Russian data show below normal temperaturesb but these are the exception with the vast majority of models showing above normal temperatures each month and for the three month period. Rainfall is more problematic, most models suggest some drier than average months and possibly drier for the three months taken together. Perhaps the stronger hints are for a drier start then increased rain risk for July some of which may be thundery in the south.



NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days. 100KM resolution output. Anomalies wrt 1999-2010 hindcast climatology. (Normal is +/-0.5C from model hindcast mean).

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN2 TN3 TN7

TN5 TN6 TN8


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 210419
TEMP: Season: above normal
MAY E UK normal elsewhere above normal JUN above normal JUL above normal
PPN: Season: normal in Highland Scotland elsewhere below normal
MAY below normal JUN N Scotland normal elsewhere below normal JUL normal but W Scotland above and central S Scotland also NE England below normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 140419
TEMP: Season: above normal
MAY normal but above in Scotland, parts of S Wales and W Cornwall JUN above normal JUL above normal
PPN: Season: mostly below normal locally normal in SW Midlands and central S England
MAY below normal JUN below normal JUL normal but below in N Ireland and parts of Scotland but above in W Midlands and SE Wales

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 100419
TEMP: Season: mostly above normal but normal in much of Eire and W of N Ireland
MAY normal JUN above normal JUL above normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in W Scotland
MAY normal but below in W Eire, Wales and W Midlands JUN normal but above in S Eire, Wales N Midlands and Scotland JUL normal but above in central Eire, Midlands and central Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010419
TEMP: Season: above normal
MAY normal JUN normal JUL above normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in Scotland and N Midlands
MAY normal locally below SW Midlands and SE Wales JUN E Anglia and N Ireland below, above in SW England Wales NW England and central Scotland elsewhere normal JUL normal locally above in central Eire and Midlands




UKMO contingency - 300419
TEMP:
May: Above normal most likely (less than about 20% chance below normal). Distribution shifted towards above normal with 5 solutions well above normal. Graphics suggest not quite as warm as last year.
Season: Above normal most likely (less than about 20% chance below normal). Distribution shifted towards above normal. Graphics suggest not quite as warm as last year but Met Ofice says prob of being in upper quintile is 45 to 50%.
PPN:
May: Met Office say similar probs for above or below normal. Large spread in solutions, clustering around normal and also above normal. Output suggest above normal is possible.
Season: Marginally more likely to be drier than normal. Two clusters one above normal and one below normal few solutions near normnal BUT if May is above normal as predicted by most of the models solutions then removing this from the seaon suggest that June/July could well be drier than normal.



Korea APCC - 240419
Temp: Season above normal
MAY above normal JUN above normal JUL above normal
PPN : Season similar probs Above/Normal/Below
MAY similar probs A/N/B JUN similar probs A/N/B JUL similar probs A/N/B but locally below in N Scotland



(June 2015 - 51 member ensemble accumulated (13+13+13+12) over 15 days run 5 days apart at 110km resolution)
Japan JMA - 160419
Temp: Season above normal
MAY above normal JUN above normal JUL above normal
PPN : Season below normal
MAY Scotland above normal elsewhere below normal JUN below normal JUL below normal
PMSL: Season above normal (Slack W)
MAY above normal (Slack W) JUN above normal (Slack W) JUL above normal (slack W)



From APRIL 2017 output based on recalibrated NMME. Individual models and probs of non/exceedance for selectable values available from map room.
IRI multi-model ensemble information
USA - IRI - 150419 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: no signal Eire, N Ireland S Scotland N England and SW England elsewhere above normal
PPN : mostly no signal but below normal SW Eire and SW Midlands



Copernicus C3S - new climate sizes and additional models November 2018
From November 2018, hindcast period 1993-2016. (Previously hindcast period is 1993-2015 for ECMWF and Met Office and 1993-2014 for Météo-France). Copernicus(EU) C3S multi model ensemble - 140419 for three month season.
Mean anomaly near normal (+/-0.2C). Tercile signal used. (UT/MT/LT= upper/middle/lower tercile).
TEMP: above normal
PPN: near normal
PMSL: above normal. Mediterranean normal
CMCC(IT) 50 members 960 climate size -
TEMP: mostly above normal
PPN: Eire N Ireland N Wales N England S half Scotland above normal elsewhere near normal
PMSL: NW below SE above. Med above normal
DWD(DE) 50 members 720 climate size -
TEMP: above normal
PPN: Eire N Ireland N Wales N England S half Scotland below normal elsewhere near normal
PMSL: above normal. Med below normal in W above in E
ECMWF(EU) 51 members 600 climate size -
TEMP: mostly above normal
PPN: Eire Wales S half England below normal elsewhere near normal
PMSL: above normal. Med above normal
UKMO(GB) 50 members 672 climate size -
TEMP: above normal
PPN: Eire N Ireland N Wales N England SW England and all Scotland above normal elsewhere normal
PMSL: near normal. Med below normal.
METEO FRANCE(FR) 51 members 600 climate size -
TEMP: above normal
PPN: SW Wales SW England and SW Eire below elsewhere normal
PMSL: near normal, Scandinavia above normal. Med below normal



Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5), is a joint seasonal forecasting system with UK Met Office. The atmosphere and land surface resolution is 0.83deg×0.556deg, about 60 km at mid-latitude region. The grid spacing in the ocean and sea-ice models is about 0.25deg. The model top is about 85 km that can fully resolve the interaction between troposphere and stratosphere.
KMA - 130419- .
Temp: Season: above normal
MAY above normal JUN above normal JUL above normal
PPN : Season normal
MAY normal JUN normal JUL normal
PMSL: Season: S/SW UK and most of Eire below, elsewhere normal
MAY S/SW UK and most of Eire below, elsewhere normal JUN SW half of UIK and all Eire below elsewhere normal JUL normal but far S below

Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes - 110419
Temp: above normal
PPN : normal
PMSL: above normal
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: above normal
PPN : normal




UKMO - 110419 - (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg [50km] resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks [42 members] 85 levels 75 ocean levels)
TEMP: near normal but slightly favours above normal especially S and E Eire and SW UK.
PPN : uncertain risk above normal mainly in the S and E of England
PSML: S near normal N more likely above



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m Second generation coupled model. 24 memebers. Atmospheric component is BCC_AGCM2.2 at T106 horizontal resolution (about 1 degree) and 26 vertical layer.
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 110419 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
MAY above normal JUN above normal JUL above normal
PPN: Season: below normal
MAY below normal but NE Scotland above normal JUN below normal JUL below normal but N Scotland above normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 040419
TEMP:
MAY normal JUN above normal JUL above normal AUG above normal SEP above normal OCT above normal NOV above normal DEC above normal
PPN : Season
MAY NW of UK and NW Eire below, S Eire, England and Wales above elsewhere normal JUN Eire and parts of S England above elsewhere below normal JUL N and NE Wales and parts of SW Eire above elswwhere mostly below normal AUG parts of Eire and Scotland above elsewhere mostly below SEP above in S Eire, W Scotland and S Wales. Below in NW EIre and N Ireland S and E Scotland N adn E England elsewhere normal OCT Midlands, Eire, N Ireland, central and E Scotland below elsewhere above NOV NW Scotland below elsewhere above DEC SE England below elsewhere above



Meteorological Service of Canada, CanSIPS forecasts are based on a 10-member ensemble of forecasts produced with each of two CCCma climate models for a total ensemble size of 20. Hindcast period 1981 to 2010. CanSips is included in the NMME.
CanSIPS 310319
TEMP:
MAY above normal JUN Eire normal elsewhere above JUL Eire and SW England normal elswhere above
PPN :
MAY normal but above in E Scotland, E England, SW England, Wales, SW Scotland, N Ireland and Eire JUN Scotland N Ireland, Eire and SE England below elsewhere normal JUL Scotland below elsewhere normal



Russia 010419
Temp: NW half UK and Eire below normal elserwhere normal or no signal
PPN : above normal or no signal




11 April 2019 - Due to availablibity of more EU area seasonal maps the global area graphics will no longer be presented on this web site and verification pages from April 2019, unless requested. UK map areas will be expaned to EU area.


Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 090419
TEMP: Above normal - all models above normal
PPN rate: normal with a hint at below normal



Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 150419
TEMP: season - above normal (May near normal)
PPN rate: Season - near normal




EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly 090419
T T T

P P P

EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib CFS2 (NMME data set) Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly 090419
T T T
P P P
200hPa height mean CFS2 data 1 deg grib

200

ECMWF monthly 270419
200


Probabalistic three month and month data from WMO site.
Summary of 3 month data data from WMO at low resolution for SW ENGLAND ONLY
DWD 090419
TEMP above normal PPN below normal
CMC 090419
TEMP normal but above in east PPN normal
BoM 090419
TEMP below normal PPN above normal
Russia 090419
TEMP below normal PPN above normal
Brazil 110419
TEMP above normal PPN above normal
UKMO 120419
TEMP similar probs A/N/B PPN similar probs A/N/B
Washington 120419
TEMP above normal PPN similar probs A/N/B
Seoul 120419
TEMP above normal PPN similar probs A/N/B
Pretoria 150419
TEMP above normal PPN below normal
Tokyo 180419
TEMP above normal PPN below normal
Beijing 180419
TEMP above normal PPN below normal
Toulouse 210419
TEMP above normal PPN similar probs A/N/B
ECMWF 210419
TEMP above normal PPN below normal
WMO multi ensemble 210419
TEMP above normal PPN similar probs A/N/B



WMO combined multi model monthly - model probability of anomaly.
200

DWD monthly 090419
200

Canada monthly 090419
200

BOM monthly 090419
200

Moscow monthly 090419
200

CPTEC Brazil monthly 110419
200

UKMO monthly 120419
200

SEOUL monthly 120419
200

Washington monthly 120419
200

Pretoria monthly 150419
200

Tokyo monthly 180419
200

Beijing monthly 180419
200

ECMWF monthly low resolution model probability of anomaly from WMO 210419
200

Toulouse monthly 210419
200



2019 JUN JUL AUG


Summary - 190419 - warmer than normal although, August may have lower anaomalies. Mixed rainfall signal overall near normal but with longer drier spells (possibly short periods with heavier rain and longer drier spells) - a better than average summer seems likely.




CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN3 TN7 TN2

TN6 TN8 TN5


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 210419
TEMP: Season: above normal
JUN above normal JUL above normal AUG above normal
PPN: Season: normal but below in S and E Eire, N and NE England and S Scotland
JUN N Scotland normal elsewhere below normal JUL normal but W Scotland above and central S Scotland also NE England below normal AUG normal but parts of N Ireland and E Scotland below

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 140419
TEMP: Season: above normal
JUN above normal JUL above normal AUG above normal
PPN: Season: mostly normal locally below in N Ireland and S Scotland
JUN below normal JUL normal but below in N Ireland and parts of Scotland but above in W Midlands and SE Wales AUG normal but below in S Wales and above in parts of NW Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 100419
TEMP: Season: above normal
JUN above normal JUL above normal AUG above normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in W Scotland
JUN normal but above in S Eire, Wales N Midlands and Scotland JUL normal but above in central Eire, Midlands and central Scotland AUG normal but below in S Eire Wales Midlands and N England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010419
TEMP: Season: above normal
JUN normal JUL above normal AUG above normal
PPN: Season: normal
JUN E Anglia and N Ireland below, above in SW England Wales NW England and central Scotland elsewhere normal JUL normal locally above in central Eire and Midlands AUG Scotland below SE England above elsehere normal



Korea APCC - 240419
Temp:
JUN above normal JUL above normal AUG above normal
PPN :
JUN similar probs A/N/B JUL similar probs A/N/B but locally below in N Scotland AUG similar probs A/N/B



USA - IRI - 150419 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: mostly no signal (similar probs A/N/B)
PPN : mostly no signal (similar probs A/N/B) but below nirmal in W Eire, N Ireland and E England



Copernicus(EU) C3S multi model ensemble - 140419 for three month season.
Mean anomaly near normal (+/-0.2C). Tercile signal used. (UT/MT/LT= upper/middle/lower tercile).
TEMP: above normal
PPN: near normal
PMSL: mostly above normal
CMCC(IT) 50 members 960 climate size -
TEMP: normal
PPN: Eire N Ireland N Wales N England S half Scotland above normal elsewhere near normal
PMSL: N Wales, N England and Scotland above normal elsewhere normal
DWD(DE) 50 members 720 climate size -
TEMP: above normal
PPN: NE Scotland above elsewhere near normal
PMSL: above normal. Med below normal in W above in E
ECMWF(EU) 51 members 600 climate size -
TEMP: above normal
PPN: mostly below normal but far N and far S normal
PMSL: above normal. Med above normal
UKMO(GB) 50 members 672 climate size -
TEMP: above normal
PPN: E Scotland and perhps S Devon above normal elsewhere normal
PMSL: near normal. Med below normal.
METEO FRANCE(FR) 51 members 600 climate size -
TEMP: above normal
PPN: near normal
PMSL: near normal, Scandinavia above normal. Med below normal



jamstec.go.jp Hindcasts 1983 to 2006
JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (27-member ensemble) - 130419
Temp: Season: above normal but N Scotland normal.
PPN : Season: NW of UK above normal, Central Scotland, Eire and N ireland normal, S Scotland Englnd and Wales below normal



Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes - 110419
Temp: above normal
PPN : normal
PMSL: above normal
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: above normal
PPN : normal




UKMO - 110419 - (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg [50km] resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks [42 members] 85 levels 75 ocean levels)
TEMP: near normal main signal.
PPN : near normal in N and E England elsewhere above normal more likely.
PSML: near normal perhaps above in S (does not tie in well with rain so perhaps rain may be snort lived heavier orb trend to drier in S in later part of summer ?)



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 110419 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
JUN above normal JUL above normal AUG above normal
PPN: Season: below normal
JUN below normal JUL below normal but N Scotland above normal AUG below normal




CanSIPS 310319
TEMP:
JUN Eire normal elsewhere above JUL Eire and SW England normal elswhere above AUG W normal E above
PPN :
JUN Scotland N Ireland, Eire and SE England below elsewhere normal JUL Scotland below elsewhere normal AUG normal buit below in S and W England also Wales



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 090419
TEMP: season : above normal - all model above normal
PPN rate: normal



Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date -
TEMP: season - above normal
PPN rate: Season - near normal




EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly 090419
T T T
P P P

EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib CFS2 NMME data set Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly 090419
T T T
P P P
200hPa height anomaly CFS2 with mean CFS2 200hPa data 1 deg grib

200
ECMWF monthly 270419
200



2019 JUL AUG SEP



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 210419
TEMP:
JUL above normal AUG above normal SEP above normal
PPN:
JUL normal but W Scotland above and central S Scotland also NE England below normal AUG normal but parts of N Ireland and E Scotland below SEP normal but below in Eire, N Ireland and W Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 140419
TEMP:
JUL above normal AUG above normal SEP above normal
PPN:
JUL normal but below in N Ireland and parts of Scotland but above in W Midlands and SE Wales AUG normal but below in S Wales and above in parts of NW Scotland SEP normal but below in SE Eire and E Lothian/Fife

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 100419
TEMP:
JUL above normal AUG above normal SEP above normal
PPN:
JUL normal but above in central Eire, Midlands and central Scotland AUG normal but below in S Eire Wales Midlands and N England SEP normal but above in N Midlands and W Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010419
TEMP:
JUL above normal AUG above normal SEP above normal
PPN:
JUL normal locally above in central Eire and Midlands AUG Scotland below SE England above elsehere normal SEP normal locally above in Devon and W Scotland



Korea APCC - 240419
Temp:
JUL above normal AUG above normal SEP above normal
PPN :
JUL similar probs A/N/B but locally below in N Scotland AUG similar probs A/N/B SEP similar probs A/N/B



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 110419 -
TEMP:
JUL above normal AUG above normal SEP above normal
PPN:
JUL below normal but N Scotland above normal AUG below normal SEP below normal




CanSIPS 310319
TEMP:
JUL Eire and SW England normal elswhere above AUG W normal E above SEP SW Eire normal elsewhere above
PPN :
JUL Scotland below elsewhere normal AUG normal buit below in S and W England also Wales SEP below normal





2019 AUG SEP OCT



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 210419
TEMP:
AUG above normal SEP above normal OCT above normal
PPN:
AUG normal but parts of N Ireland and E Scotland below SEP normal but below in Eire, N Ireland and W Scotland OCT normalbut below in SE Eire and above in N England S and W Scotland.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 140419
TEMP:
AUG above normal SEP above normal OCT normal but above in W Scotland W Cornwall and far SE England
PPN:
AUG normal but below in S Wales and above in parts of NW Scotland SEP normal but below in SE Eire and E Lothian/Fife OCT normal but below in S Eire and above in Midlands

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 100419
TEMP: Season: mostly above normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in W Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010419
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in W Scotland, W Eire and SE England



Korea APCC - 240419
Temp:
AUG above normal SEP above normal OCT above normal
PPN :
AUG similar probs A/N/B SEP similar probs A/N/B OCT similar probs A/N/B



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 110419 -
TEMP:
AUG above normal SEP above normal OCT above normal
PPN:
AUG below normal SEP below normal OCT below normal




CanSIPS 310319
TEMP:
AUG W normal E above SEP SW Eire normal elsewhere above OCT above normal
PPN :
AUG normal buit below in S and W England also Wales SEP below normal OCT Scotland above SW England and S Eire below elsewhere normal





2019 SEP OCT NOV

Summary - 190419 - Above average temperatures and below average rain to start with but ending wetter in November.



CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN3 TN7 TN2

TN6 TN8 TN5



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 210419
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in NW Midlands and far W Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 140419
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 100419
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in W Scotland and W Eire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010419
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in SW Scotland and SW England



jamstec.go.jp Hindcasts 1983 to 2006
JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (27-member ensemble) - 130419
Temp: Season: above normal
PPN : Season: Eire, N Ireland and Scotland below normal, S of England above elsewhere normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 110419 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
SEP above normal OCT above normal NOV above normal
PPN: Season: below normal
SEP below normal OCT below normal NOV above normal




CanSIPS 310319
TEMP:
SEP SW Eire normal elsewhere above OCT above normal NOV above normal
PPN :
SEP below normal OCT Scotland above SW England and S Eire below elsewhere normal NOV normal



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 090419
TEMP: season : above or well above -- all models above normal
PPN rate: normal in S elsewhere above - few models have strong indication, CMC hint at below in SW offset by NASA above normal in SW



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P


EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib CFS2 (NMME data set) Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly 090419
T T T
P P P


2019 OCT NOV DEC




USA - NCEP CFS2 - 210419
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in SW England Wales W and N England and W Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 140419
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: normal


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 110419 -
TEMP:
OCT above normal NOV above normal DEC near normal but locally above normal in S and E
PPN: Season: below normal
OCT below normal NOV above normal DEC above normal




CanSIPS 310319
TEMP:
OCT above normal NOV above normal DEC W Eire normal elsewhere above normal
PPN :
OCT Scotland above SW England and S Eire below elsewhere normal NOV normal DEC above normal





2019 NOV DEC 2020 JAN



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 110419 -
TEMP:
NOV above normal DEC near normal but locally above normal in S and E JAN above normal
PPN:
NOV above normal DEC above normal JAN N Scotland above normal elsewhere below




CanSIPS 310319
TEMP:
NOV above normal DEC W Eire normal elsewhere above normal JAN above normal F
PPN :
NOV normal DEC above normal JAN N Scotland normal elsewhere above normal





2019 DEC 2020 JAN FEB

Summary - 190419 - Milder than average, and wetter to start but possibly a drier second half of winter.



jamstec.go.jp Hindcasts 1983 to 2006
JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (27-member ensemble) - 130419
Temp: Season: below normal.
PPN : Season: mostly above normal but lower prob in NW of UK.


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 110419 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
DEC near normal but locally above normal in S and E JAN above normal FEB above normal
PPN: Season: above normal but Eire and SW England below
DEC above normal JAN N Scotland above normal elsewhere below FEB below normal




CanSIPS 310319
TEMP:
DEC W Eire normal elsewhere above normal JAN above normal FEB above normal
PPN :
DEC above normal JAN N Scotland normal elsewhere above normal FEB SE England normal elsewhere below





2020 JAN FEB MAR



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 110419 -
TEMP:
JAN above normal FEB above normal MAR above normal
PPN:
JAN N Scotland above normal elsewhere below FEB below normal MAR below normal




CanSIPS 310319
TEMP:
JAN above normal FEB above normal MAR above normal
PPN :
JAN N Scotland normal elsewhere above normal FEB SE England normal elsewhere below MAR E normal elsewhere above normal





2020 FEB MAR APR



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 110419 -
TEMP:
FEB above normal MAR above normal APR above normal
PPN:
FEB below normal MAR below normal APR below normal





NOTEs:
1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR – 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data disseminating is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. CMC=Canada Met Center.


Comments or questions please E mail

Go to Obs and Sat pics Go to Forecast links Go to Featured area links Go to Natural Hazards links Go to climate links Go to UK Ozone data