SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE

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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK area - updated as new data becomes available. Previous summary - March 2017 data

Summary of experimental Seasonal Forecasts for the UK and Eire



Updated 260417 (ddmmyy). Typically updated on Thursday/Friday. Main updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike

This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest


Nino 3.4, CFS2 updated daily. NMME and UKMO Tropical N Atlantic plot added when available. Click image for details.

ENSO NMME ENS Mean UKMO Tropical N Atlantic
ENSO CFS latest


Data awaited from GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES
USA - NCEP CFS2 (periodic updates).
Not available: South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) LRF, India Met Office IMO.
KMA model added


Data sources available on date: USA - NCEP CFS2 (010417 090417 [160417alt] 160417) CanSips 010417, Russia 010417, USA NASA GMAO GSFC 110417, UKMO seasonal 110417, US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) 110417, NMME and CFS2 graphics 110417, BCC China 120417, KMA 150417, Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS) 150417, Japan JMA 170417, CopernicusEU MME (UKMO MereoFr no EC) 150417, International IMME 160417, USA - IRI 210417, Korea APCC ENS 260417, Capernicus EC and multi model ENS 260417, UKMO Contingency 030517 delayed.



CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 06Z on date shown
Perth Birmingham
London Exeter

SEASONAL FORECAST
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).



For an attempt at regional detail for SW England click here after about the 20th



MAY JUN JUL

UKMO Contingency 030517
TEMP: May: main signal above normal but fairly large cluster near normal. Distribution shifted to above normal.
Season: Main cluster above normal (about 1 deg anomaly) but also a sig cluster at near normal. About 70% of solutions above normal.
PPN: May: About 60% of solutions sugest below normal rain with the main cluster below normal but there are a number of extreme solutions with well above normal compared to the normal range. Main signal below normal.
Season: Split solution with reduced probs for near normal and enhanced probs for well above normal. However the cluster for below normal is of a similar size to the one for above normal and more tightly grouped. SOlutions slightly favour above normal but with low confidence.



Summary - 180417 - Although there is a strong signal for above or well above normal temperatures through the season there are hints that May might be a little cooler than normal at least to start, then ending near normal for May as a whole. Rainfall as usual more problematic but mostly near or below normal except perhaps in the N of Scotland and also in the S of UK. Some indication that June may be wetter across the S half of UK and Eire but this has not been consistent in the output. Although the PMSL signal is mixed with hints f above normal pressure there are signs of lower than normal pressure over France and S UK in June or July.



NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days. 100KM resolutin output. Anomalies wrt 1999-2010 hindcast climatology. (Normal is +/-0.5C from model hindcast mean).

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 240417
TEMP: Season: mostly above normal locally normal in NE England
MAY E Scotland N and E England, SW England and N Ireland normal elsewhere above normal JUN E half of England normal otherwise above normal JUL NE England normal otherwise above normal
PPN: Season: normal but below in NW Scotland and locally above in Midlands
MAY SW Eire above normal, N Ireland S and W Scotland below normal elsewhere normal JUN Midlands, SW England central Eire above normal, locally below in W Scotland elsewhere normal JUL normal but below in SW Eire SE Scotland and NE England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 160416
TEMP: Season: normal but above in all Scotland and Lowlands, Eire, Wales, SW England and far SE England
MAY normal locally above in SW Eire JUN NE England normal elsewhere above normal JUL Eire and all S of England above normal elsewhere normal
PPN: Season: normal
MAY Below normal but N Ireland, Central, NE and SE Scotland, N England and E Anglia normal. JUN Normal in N Ireland and E half of Scotland and E half of England elsewhere above normal JUL normal but below in SE Eire and Devon and Cornwall

USA - NCEP CFS2 - Monthly 10 day means not updated from 9th processing restarted 17th

USA - NCEP CFS2 - [160417 - data from tropical tidbits average of last 12 runs 1 member hence missing 12 out of 16 runs per day.]
TEMP:
MAY Above normal Strongest signal in N and W JUN Above normal Strongest signal in N and W JUL Above normal Strongest signal in S and W, locally near normal NE England
PPN:
MAY Above normal E half Scotland below normal S England SW Wales N Ireland and Eire elsewhere normal JUN above normal S and W Eire, Wales Midlnds and SW England elsewhere normal JUL NW and N Scotland, also W Midlands above normal. Elsewhere below normal
PMSL:
MAY normal JUN normal but below in S JUL normal but above in N Ireland, Eire Wales W and SW England.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - Monthly 10 day means not updated from 9th processing restarted 17th

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 090417
TEMP: Season: Above normal in Wales, SW England, W Midlands SE England, N Ireland, Eire, Central and W Scotland elsewher normal
MAY normal but Cornwall above JUN above normal but NE England normal JUL above normal but N and NE England normal
PPN: Season: normal but below in N Ireland and NW Scotland
MAY Below in Wales, Eire and NW Scotland elsewhere normal JUN above in SW England and SW Wales, below in N Ireland E Scotland and NE England JUL Below in W Scotland N Ireland and SE Eire but above in Midlands and E of England elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010417
TEMP: Season: NE England normal elsewhere above
MAY Eire, N Ireland, SW England and S Wales above normal elsewhere normal JUN NE England normal elsewhere above normal JUL NE England normal elsewhere above normal
PPN: Season: Normal locally below in E England and N half Eire.
MAY Normal locally below in SW Scotland and Eire JUN N Scotland and S Eire normal elsewhere below normal JUL Normal but above in NW England, Central and SW Scotland



Korea APCC - 260417
Temp: Season 50 to 70% prob for above normal
MAY 50 to 70% prob for above normal JUN 50 to 60% prob for above normal JUL 40 to 60% prob for above normal
PPN : Season no signal - hint of bekow in S
MAY Eire, SW Wales and SW England below elsewhere no signal JUN no signal JUL no signal


From APRIL 2017 output based on recalibrated NMME. Individual models and probs of non/exceedance for selectable values available from map room.
IRI multi-model ensemble information
USA - IRI - 210417 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: SE and central S England above normal elsewhere no signal
PPN : mostly low probs of below normal but home counties small prob above and no signal for most of Midlands, Wales and SW Eire.


Copernicus C3S multi model ensemble - 260417
UQ=upper quintile LQ=lower quintile, UT/MT/LT= upper/middle/lower tercile.
TEMP: Above normal, all areas in UT 40 to 60% prob, 30 to 40% prob UQ except W Eire, England central and E Wales and far NW Scotland.
PPN: No strong signal but chance for W Eire to be in LT
PMSL: No strong signal (interesting signal for Med/S Europe to be unsettled.
ECMWF 51 members 345 climate size - 260417
TEMP: Above normal with Scotland N Ireland and Eire 30 to 40% prob UQ
PPN: Eire, N Ireland and Scotland (favours W Scotland most) below normal, possibly LQ. Elsewhere no signal but risk of UQ N England, SE Scotland and E Scotland.
PMSL: N half UK above normal, possibly well above normal elsewhere near normal.
UKMO 50 members 276 climate size 150417
TEMP: High prob above normal. Enhanced probs UQ
PPN: Wales SW and Midlands above normal, UT extends to S Scotland elsewhere no signal. UQ enhanced for central S England.
PMSL: near normal most likely
METEO FRANCE 51 members 330 climate size 150417
TEMP: Mostly no signal. Tercile hints at normal or above in N and E, mostly no normal or above
PPN: Mostly no signal, hint at above in far NE and below in SW Eire. LT more likely over Eire S England, S Wales E Midlands and E Scotland. UT in far N Scotland
PMSL: N half of area MT most likely. Elsewhere no signal.


Japan JMA (June 2015 - 51 member ensemble accumulated (13+13+13+12) over 15 days run 5 days apart at 110km resolution 60 levels 0.1hPa top) 170417
Temp: Season above normal
MAY above normal JUN above normal JUL above normal
PPN : Season Scotland and N England above normal elsewhere below
MAY above normal JUN below normal except S Scotland above JUL N Scotland most of England and Wales above normal elsewhere below normal
PMSL: Season above normal (weak WNW)
MAY above normal SW England and S Eire below (weak) JUN above normal (Weak WNW) JUL below normal (WNW)


Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - 150417 - two outputs schemes
Temp: above normal
PPN : near normal but NW Wales/Isle of Man above normal
PMSL: below normal
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: normal locally above in SE Eire NE Scotland E/SE/S and SW England
PPN : normal



KMA - April 2017 -
TEMP :Season above normal 0.5 to 1C high prob
MAY above normal JUN above normal - slightly lower probs across Central and SE England. JUL above normal
PPN: Season W Midlands and Wales perhaos SE England above elsewhere no signal
MAY SW England near normal elsewhere no signal JUN NW Scotland below S Scotland NW England W Midlands Wales and SW England above elsewhere no signal JUL NE Scotland normal England above normal elsewhere no signal
PMSL: no signal
MAY near normal 49 to 50% prob JUN no signal but far N Scotland may be above JUL S may be below normal




UKMO Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg (50km mid-latitudes) resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks 85 levels to 85 km. 75 ocean levels (0.25° x 0.25) - 14 year hindcast 1996-2009. 42 ensemble members.
UKMO - 110814
TEMP: Mostly over 80% prob for above normal, central England 0ver 60%. All areas less than 20% prob below normal. Enhanced probs for well above normal 25% for Central S England elsewhere over 40%
PPN : Wales, SW England and parts of Midlands over 60% prob for above median rainfall. N Scotland Eire and N Ireland similar priobs for above/normal/below but elsewhere over 40% prob for above or well above normal
PSML: no strong signal but enhanced probs for well beklow normal across Eire and S of UK.



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m Second generation coupled model. 24 members. Atmospheric component is BCC_AGCM2.2 at T106 horizontal resolution (about 1 degree) and 26 vertical layer.
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120417 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
MAY above normal JUN above normal JUL above normal
PPN: Season: N Scotland above elsewhere below normal
MAY N Scotland above elsewhere below normal especially the S JUN Scotland above elsewhere below JUL England and far N Scotland above elsewhere normal or below



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 080417
TEMP: Season above normal
MAY above normal JUN above normal JUL above normal
PPN : Season normal
MAY normal JUN Wales below elsewhere normal JUL NW Scotland below elsewhere normal



Russia 010417
Temp: W of Eire above normal E of England near normal elsewhere similar probs for above/normal/below
PPN : similar probs for above/normal/below but hint of near normal in SW.


Meteorological Service of Canada, CanSIPS forecasts are based on a 10-member ensemble of forecasts produced with each of two CCCma climate models for a total ensemble size of 20. Hindcast period 1981 to 2010. CanSips is included in the NMME.
CanSIPS - 010417
TEMP: Above normal or in S/SE well above
MAY above normal JUN above normal JUL Eire normal elsewhere above normal
PPN : Eire, Wales and S half England below normal elsewhere normal
MAY normal JUN normal but N half Scotland below JUL N of Scotland above. N Irelnd E half of Eire SW Scotland England and Wales below elsewhere normal



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 080417
See graphcs below for monthly variation.
TEMP: season - High probs aboe normal (0.5 to 1C)

PPN: season - Below normal most likely



Indication from Internatinal Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 170417
TEMP: season - above normal
MAY above normal, but only slightly (0.25 to 0.5C) above in N JUN above normal (0.5 to 1C) JUL above normal
PPN rate: season - normal
MAY normal JUN normal JUL normal



Graphics 110417
CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP

TX TX TX

TN TN TN

CFS2 TEMP

T T T

CFS2 PPN

P P P


NMME MAX and MIN
TX TX TX


TN TN TN


NMME TEMP:

T T T



NMME PPN rate:

P P P


NMME TEMP PROBS:

T T T

NMME PPN:
P P P



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P
200hPa height anomaly NMME and CFS2 with mean CFS2 200hPa data 1 deg grib

200



Summer 2017 JUN JUL AUG


Summary - 180417 - Consistent signal for warmer than normal summer and possible well above normal temperatures. There are noindications for a colder than normal summer. Rainfall is likely to be normal or below normal for the season. Some risk that June may be wetter in the S, July in the North and August across the middle of the UK and Eire but there is no agreement in monthly detail between models or even different runs of the same model.
Comment: 180417 - Developing El Nino implies near normal rain over UK and Eire but with risk of above normal in E of England.


IRI climate impacts data for El Nino conditions for above, normal or below normal rain in UK area June July August
Ref IRI - Mason, S.J. and L. Goddard, 2001: Probabilistic precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 82, 619-638.
El Nino prob above normal ppn
El Nino prob normal ppn
El Nino prob below normal ppn



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 240417
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in Cornwall and W/NW Scotland
JUN E half of England normal otherwise above normal JUL NE England normal otherwise above normal AUG normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in SW Scotland/NW England, Eire, Wales, SW England and Midlands
JUN Midlands, SW England central Eire above normal, locally below in W Scotland elsewhere normal JUL normal but below in SW Eire SE Scotland and NE England AUG NE Scotland and Doreset to Hampshire normal otherwise above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 160416
TEMP: Season: above normal but normal in NE Scotland and N third of England
JUN NE England normal elsewhere above normal JUL Eire and all S of England above normal elsewhere normal AUG normal locally above in all S of England
PPN: Season: normal lovally below in E Scotland but above in SW Eire, Wales, Devon and Cornwall.
JUN Normal in N Ireland and E half of Scotland and E half of England elsewhere above normal JUL normal but below in SE Eire and Devon and Cornwall AUG N Ireland and Scotland belopw elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - [160417]
TEMP:
JUN Above normal Strongest signal in N and W JUL Above normal Strongest signal in S and W, locally near normal NE England AUG Above normal Strongest signal in S, locally near normal NE England and E Scotland
PPN:
JUN above normal S and W Eire, Wales Midlnds and SW England elsewhere normal JUL NW and N Scotland, also W Midlands above normal. Elsewhere below normal AUG N Scotland below. Eire Wales and southern two thirds England above elsewhere normal
PMSL:
JUN normal but below in S JUL normal but above in N Ireland, Eire Wales W and SW England. AUG normal but below in Eire and W half of UK.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 090417
TEMP: Season: NE England normal elsewhere above
JUN above normal but NE England normal JUL above normal but N and NE England normal AUG above normal but NE Scotland, N and NE England normal S
PPN: Season: normal locallt below in N Ireland and N/NE Scotland but above in Midlands
JUN above in SW England and SW Wales, below in N Ireland E Scotland and NE England JUL Below in W Scotland N Ireland and SE Eire but above in Midlands and E of England elsewhere normal AUG above in SW England, SE England central and W Scotland elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010417
TEMP: Season: NE England normal elsewhere above
JUN NE England normal elsewhere above normal JUL NE England normal elsewhere above normal AUG Normal in E and S Scotland N Midlands northwards over England elsewhere above normal
PPN: Season: normal locally below in E Eire and NE England
JUN N Scotland and S Eire normal elsewhere below normal JUL Normal but above in NW England, Central and SW Scotland AUG BElow in SW Ere and NE Scotland above in SW England and SW Midlands elsewhere normalbr>

USA - IRI - 210417 -forecasts system changed
Temp: no signal
PPN : Lowland Scotland low pobs above normal. Low probs below normal SE half of England parts of SW and NE England, also SE Eire


Copernicus C3S multi model ensemble - 260417
TEMP: Mostly above normal with chance of UQ except W Eire, NW Scotland, England and Wales.
PPN: No strong signal but chance of UT in zone from Cornwall, across SW Wales NE England and parts of E Scotland.
PMSL: Enhanced probs above normal in far NW and low priobs below normal in S.
ECMWF 51 members 345 climate size 260417
TEMP: Above normal (UT) for Eire, N Ireland SW England W Wales and most of Scotland except the S. Elsewhere near normal.
PPN: N half Eire, N Ireland, W and NW Scotland below normal possibly LQ in NW. Elsewhere no signal but risk UT Conrwall, NW DEvon, Wales N Midlands and far NE England
PMSL: NW UK and NW Eire above UT possibly in NW UQ, elsewhere near normal with risk of below in S (LT)
UKMO 50 members 460 climate size 260417<
TEMP: Above normal 30 to 50% prob UQ
PPN: E Scotland above normal. 40 to 50% prob Scotland and parts of S England in UT. N half Scotland enhanced UQ.
PMSL: Near normal with chance above.
METEO FRANCE 51 members 330 climate size
TEMP: Mostly no signal. Locally UQ near coasts in Irish Sea and N Sea. 150417<
PPN: Mostly no signal. Locally UQ near coasts in Irish Sea and N Sea. Chance UQ near N Sea coasts.
PMSL: ABove normal in N normal in S. F far N above normal UQ.



UKMO - 110814
TEMP: Mostly over 60% prob for above normal. Enhanced probs for well above normal 25% for SE England elsewhere over 40%
PPN : Weak signal for above normal, mainly SE England N England and S Scotland. Wales and SW near normal.
PSML: no strong signal but enhanced probs for well below normal across S of UK and well above across the N. Note: Tercile catagories have similar probs for above and below in S of UK



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120417 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
JUN above normal JUL above normal AUG above normal
PPN: Season: Scotland above elsewhere below normal
JUN Scotland above elsewhere below JUL England and far N Scotland above elsewhere normal or below AUG N Ireland and S Scotland above elsewhere below



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 080417
TEMP: Season above normal
JUN above normal JUL above normal AUG N Scotland normal elsewhere above normal
PPN : Season normal
JUN Wales below elsewhere normal JUL NW Scotland below elsewhere normal AUG NW Scotland below elsewhere normal



CanSIPS - 010417
TEMP: Above normal or in S/SE well above
JUN above normal JUL Eire normal elsewhere above normal AUG above normal
PPN : normal
JUN normal but N half Scotland below JUL N of Scotland above. N Irelnd E half of Eire SW Scotland England and Wales below elsewhere normal AUG normal locally below in NW Scotland S



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 080417
TEMP: season - high probs above normal

PPN: season - near normal bnut W of Eire below.



Indication from Internatinal Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 170417
TEMP: season - above normal but SE England only slightly above normal
JUN above normal (0.5 to 1C) JUL above normal AUG slightly above normal
PPN rate: season - normal
JUN normal JUL normal AUG normal



CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP

TX TX TX

TN TN TN

CFS2 TEMP

T T T

CFS2 PPN

P P P



NMME MAX and MIN
TX TX TX


TN TN TN


NMME TEMP:

T T T



NMME PPN rate:

P P P


NMME TEMP PROBS:

T T T

NMME PPN:
P P P



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P
200hPa height anomaly NMME and CFS2 with mean CFS2 200hPa data 1 deg grib

200




2017 JUL AUG SEP



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 240417
TEMP: Season: normal
JUL NE England normal otherwise above normal AUG normal SEP normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in SW Scotland, NW England and central Eire
JUL normal but below in SW Eire SE Scotland and NE England AUG NE Scotland and Doreset to Hampshire normal otherwise above normal SEP N Scotland, Midlands and Wales below normal elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 160416
TEMP: Season: normal but above in W Scotland W Eire and all of S of England
JUL Eire and all S of England above normal elsewhere normal AUG normal locally above in all S of England SEP normal but above in all W Scotland N Ireland and N of Eire and locally Hampshire area
PPN: Season:normal localy below in E Scotland
JUL normal but below in SE Eire and Devon and Cornwall AUG N Ireland and Scotland belopw elsewhere normal SEP normal locally below NE Scotland and Locally above in S Scotland/borders and W Eire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - [160417]
TEMP:
JUL Above normal Strongest signal in S and W, locally near normal NE England AUG Above normal Strongest signal in S, locally near normal NE England and E Scotland SEP Above normal Strongest signal in S and W.
PPN:
JUL NW and N Scotland, also W Midlands above normal. Elsewhere below normal AUG N Scotland below. Eire Wales and southern two thirds England above elsewhere normal SEP NW Eire, N Ireland an NW Scotland above. Wales and S half England below elsewhere normal
PMSL:
JUL normal but above in N Ireland, Eire Wales W and SW England. AUG normal but below in Eire and W half of UK. SEP normal but above in far S of UK

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 090417
TEMP: Season: Above normal but normal in NE Scotland N and Ne England and N Midlands
JUL above normal but N and NE England normal AUG above normal but NE Scotland, N and NE England normal SEP normal but N Ireland and most of Scotland above
PPN: Season: normnal but locally above in Midlands but beklow in N Ireland and NE Scotland
JUL Below in W Scotland N Ireland and SE Eire but above in Midlands and E of England elsewhere normal AUG above in SW England, SE England central and W Scotland elsewhere normal SEP normal but bekow in N Ireland , E Eire and S half of Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010417
TEMP: Season: NE Scotland and NE England normal elsewhere above normal
JUL NE England normal elsewhere above normal AUG Normal in E and S Scotland N Midlands northwards over England elsewhere above normal SEP Central and W Scotland, N Ireland, Eire and SW England above normal elsewhere normal
PPN: Season: normal but SW Midlands/Westcountry above
JUL Normal but above in NW England, Central and SW Scotland AUG BElow in SW Ere and NE Scotland above in SW England and SW Midlands elsewhere normal SEP Below in N Ireland SW England and Wales above in Central S England and E Midlands elsewhere normal



USA - IRI - 210417 - -forecasts system changed
TEMP: no signal but low prob above normal SE Wales and most of southern two thirds of England
PPN : Low probs above normal SE Eire, Cornwall N Wales N Midlands NE England and SE Scotland. Low probs below normal SW Eire and Central S England elsewhere no signal


Indication from Internatinal Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 170417
TEMP: season - slightly above normal but NW half Scotland above normal
JUL above normal AUG slightly above normal SEP slightly above normal but above in N
PPN rate: season - normal
JUL normal AUG normal SEP normal




UKMO - 110814
TEMP: Mostly over 60% prob for above normal. Enhanced probs for well above normal 25% for EIre, Wales and England elsewhere over 40%
PPN : Above normal for many areas but lower probs for Midlands and SE England. Enhanced probs for well above normal.
PSML: no strong signal but reduced probs for above normal across Scotland and N England. Hint of above normal in SW England



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120417 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
JUL above normal AUG above normal SEP above normal
PPN: Season: far SW England and NE Scotland below elsewhere above
JUL England and far N Scotland above elsewhere normal or below AUG N Ireland and S Scotland above elsewhere below SEP above normal locally below in N Wales and far N Scotland



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 080417
TEMP: Season above normal
JUL above normal AUG N Scotland normal elsewhere above normal SEP N Scotland normal elsewhere above normal
PPN : Season slightly above
JUL NW Scotland below elsewhere normal AUG NW Scotland below elsewhere normal SEP above normal



CanSIPS - 010417
TEMP: Above normal or in S/SE well above
JUL Eire normal elsewhere above normal AUG above normal SEP above normal
PPN : Cornnwall, Scotland and NW Eire normal elsewhere below
JUL N of Scotland above. N Irelnd E half of Eire SW Scotland England and Wales below elsewhere normal AUG normal locally below in NW Scotland SEP N half Scotland normal elsewhere below normal





2017 AUG SEP OCT



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 240417
TEMP: Season: normal
AUG normal SEP normal OCT normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in central EIre W and SW Scotland and Midlands
AUG NE Scotland and Doreset to Hampshire normal otherwise above normal SEP N Scotland, Midlands and Wales below normal elsewhere normal OCT SW Eire below N half Scotland Wales and S half England above elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 160416
TEMP: Season: normal locally below in NW Scotland
AUG normal locally above in all S of England SEP normal but above in all W Scotland N Ireland and N of Eire and locally Hampshire area OCT normal
PPN: Season: normal but below in N Ireland and Scotland
AUG N Ireland and Scotland belopw elsewhere normal SEP normal locally below NE Scotland and Locally above in S Scotland/borders and W Eire OCT below normal but NE Scotland and SE England normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - [160417]
TEMP:
AUG Above normal Strongest signal in S, locally near normal NE England and E Scotland SEP Above normal Strongest signal in S and W. OCT Above normal Strongest signal in N
PPN:
AUG N Scotland below. Eire Wales and southern two thirds England above elsewhere normal SEP NW Eire, N Ireland an NW Scotland above. Wales and S half England below elsewhere normal OCT below normal
PMSL:
AUG normal but below in Eire and W half of UK. SEP normal but above in far S of UK OCT W Eire and S England noral elsewhere above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 090417
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in NW Scotland
PPN: Season: normal locally below in N Ireland and NE Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010417
TEMP: Season: normal but above in SE England, SW England, Wales, Eire, N Ireland, Central and W Scotland
PPN: Season: below normal in Eire, N Ireland and NE Scotland elswewhere normal




Korea APCC - 260417
Temp: Season 50 to 70% prob for above normal
AUG 50 to 60% prob for above normal SEP 50 to 60% prob for above normal OCT 40 to 60% prob for above normal
PPN : Season no signal
AUG no signal SEP no signal OCT no signal


USA - IRI - 210417 -forecasts system changed
TEMP: low prob above normal SE England
PPN : Low probs below normal but no signal for N Ireland, all but SW Eire, SE England and NW Scotland


Indication from Internatinal Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 170417
TEMP: season - slightly above normal but NW half Scotland above normal
AUG slightly above normal SEP slightly above normal but above in N OCT above normal
PPN rate: season - normal
AUG normal SEP normal OCT normal but slightly below in Eire and SW UK



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120417 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
AUG above normal SEP above normal OCT near normal
PPN: Season: above normal
AUG N Ireland and S Scotland above elsewhere below SEP above normal locally below in N Wales and far N Scotland OCT below in Scotland and N Ireland elsewhere above especially SE England



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 080417
TEMP: Season Scotland normal elsewhere above
AUG N Scotland normal elsewhere above normal SEP N Scotland normal elsewhere above normal OCT near or slightly above normal
PPN : Season normal
AUG NW Scotland below elsewhere normal SEP above normal OCT normal



CanSIPS - 010417
TEMP: Above normal or in S/SE well above
AUG above normal SEP above normal OCT above normal
PPN : Normal in N England, Scotland and NW Eire elsewhere below normal
AUG normal locally below in NW Scotland SEP N half Scotland normal elsewhere below normal OCT S half Eire, Wales and England (except the N) below elsewhere normal





2017 SEP OCT NOV


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 240417
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: SW England S and W Scotland above normal elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 160416
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal locally below in Argyll

USA - NCEP CFS2 - [160417]
TEMP:
SEP Above normal Strongest signal in S and W. OCT Above normal Strongest signal in N NOV Above normal
PPN:
SEP NW Eire, N Ireland an NW Scotland above. Wales and S half England below elsewhere normal OCT below normal NOV London area below. Scotland, N Ireland, N England SW England and W Wales above elsewhere normal
PMSL:
SEP normal but above in far S of UK OCT W Eire and S England noral elsewhere above NOV normal but below in N Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 090417
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010417
TEMP: Season: abiove normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above normal in NW Scotland



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120417 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
SEP above normal OCT near normal NOV above normal
PPN: Season: above normal
SEP above normal locally below in N Wales and far N Scotland OCT below in Scotland and N Ireland elsewhere above especially SE England NOV below normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 080417
TEMP:
SEP N Scotland normal elsewhere above normal OCT near or slightly above normal NOV above normal
PPN :
SEP above normal OCT normal NOV normal but SW England above



CanSIPS - 010417
TEMP: Above normal or in S/SE well above
SEP above normal OCT above normal NOV above normal
PPN : Below normal in S Eire and all S of England elsewhere normal
SEP N half Scotland normal elsewhere below normal OCT S half Eire, Wales and England (except the N) below elsewhere normal NOV ar S of England below. N Ireland most of Scotland and N half of England and N Wales above elsewhere normal



NMME MAX and MIN 080417
TX TX TX


TN TN TN


NMME TEMP:

T T T



NMME PPN rate:

P P P


NMME TEMP PROBS:

T T T

NMME PPN:
P P P



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P
200hPa height anomaly NMME and CFS2 with mean CFS2 200hPa data 1 deg grib

200




2017 OCT NOV DEC

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 240417
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: Eire, N Irelamnd and NE England normal elsewhere above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 160416
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal locally below in Wales, W Scotland, N Ireland and W Eire



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120417 -
TEMP: Season: slightly above normal
OCT near normal NOV above normal DEC Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere below normal
PPN: Season: N below S above
OCT below in Scotland and N Ireland elsewhere above especially SE England NOV below normal DEC below normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 080417
TEMP:
OCT near or slightly above normal NOV above normal DEC above normal
PPN :
OCT normal NOV normal but SW England above DEC NW Scotland above elsewhere normal



CanSIPS - 010417
TEMP: Above normal or in SE well above
OCT above normal NOV above normal DEC above normal
PPN : S of England below normal. S and E Scotland and far NE England above. Elsewhere normal
OCT S half Eire, Wales and England (except the N) below elsewhere normal NOV ar S of England below. N Ireland most of Scotland and N half of England and N Wales above elsewhere normal DEC S of England normal elsewhere above normal





2017 NOV DEC 2018 JAN


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120417 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
NOV above normal DEC Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere below normal JAN above normal
PPN: Season: SE England above elsewhere below
NOV below normal DEC below normal JAN below normal locally above in S of England



CanSIPS - 010417
TEMP: Above normal
NOV above normal DEC above normal JAN W Eire normal elsewhere above normal
PPN : Normal in N Scotland, W Eire and all S of England elsewhere above normal
NOV ar S of England below. N Ireland most of Scotland and N half of England and N Wales above elsewhere normal DEC S of England normal elsewhere above normal JAN N of Scotland normal elsewhere above normal





2017 DEC 2018 JAN FEB


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120417 -
TEMP: Season: above normal - north near normal
DEC Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere below normal JAN above normal FEB above normal
PPN: Season: SW Eire below elsewhere above
DEC below normal JAN below normal locally above in S of England FEB above normal perhaps normal in SE England



CanSIPS - 010417
TEMP: W Eire Normal elsewhere above normal
DEC above normal JAN W Eire normal elsewhere above normal FEB Eire normal elsewhere above normal
PPN : Normal in N Scotland W of N Ireland W Eire Cornwall and Kent elsewhere above normal
DEC S of England normal elsewhere above normal JAN N of Scotland normal elsewhere above normal FEB Eire, N Ireland and all but SE Scotland below normal elsewhere normal





2018 JAN FEB MAR


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120417 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
JAN above normal FEB above normal MAR above normal
PPN: Season: above normal
JAN below normal locally above in S of England FEB above normal perhaps normal in SE England MAR Below in S Eire and SW UK elsewhere above



CanSIPS - 010417
TEMP: W Eire Normal elsewhere above normal
JAN W Eire normal elsewhere above normal FEB Eire normal elsewhere above normal MAR above normal
PPN : W Eire and N half Scotland
JAN N of Scotland normal elsewhere above normal FEB Eire, N Ireland and all but SE Scotland below normal elsewhere normal MAR Eire, N Ireland, Wales, NW England and SW Scotland above normal elsehere normal





2018 FEB MAR APR


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120417 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
FEB above normal MAR above normal APR above normal
PPN: Season: above normal especially Scotland
FEB above normal perhaps normal in SE England MAR Below in S Eire and SW UK elsewhere above APR N half Scotland above also SW England elsewhere below





NOTEs:
1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observatin - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR – 50KM resolutin - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolutin versin of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data disseminatin is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Predictin Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administratin. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. CMC=Canada Met Center.


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