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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK area - updated as new data becomes available. Previous summary - March 2016 data

Summary of International experimental Seasonal Forecasts for UK and Eire for 1 and 3 month periods

Updated 270416 (ddmmyy). Main updates are noted on Twitter @T2mike


This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest


Click for El NINO info


April Data awaited from GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES
USA - NCEP CFS2 (periodic updates), South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) LRF.


Data sources available on date: USA - NCEP CFS2 (010416 100416 150416 230416), Russia 010416, CanSips 010416, US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) 110416, UKMO seasonal 110416, NMME and CFS2 graphics 110416, USA NASA GMAO GSFC 110416, Japan JMA 110416, Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS) 150416, BCC China 160416, International IMME 170416, USA - IRI 210416, Korea APCC 230416, UKMO Contingency 260416.
India Met Office IMO stage 1 monsoon available.


CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 06Z on date shown



SEASONAL FORECAST
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).



Late Spring/Early summer 2016 MAY JUN JUL -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Summary - 170416 - Temperature probably near or a little above normal, especially in the east of UK with the W of UK and the W of Eire most at risk from below normal temperatures due to cooler than normal Atlantic Sea Temperature. Rainfall - the weakening El Nino, perhaps still strong enough to include some statistical impacts implying normal or above normal rainfall but below normal in N and W Scotland. Model output is less clear suggesting drier periods for July and perhaps parts of June especially in the S and E. Hence chance of above normal rain probably mostly in the W of UK and over Eire with the E and SE possibly drier than normal.



IRI Statistical data for El Nino UK PPN - Above normal precip for many areas suggested by statistical link to El Nino - see maps. However forecasts suggest El Nino may be weakening in Spring 2016.

IRI climate impacts.


NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days. 100KM resolution output. Anomalies wrt 1999-2010 hindcast climatology. (Normal is +/-0.5C from model hindcast mean).

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 230416
TEMP: Season: normal (+/-0.5C)
MAY near normal JUN NW Scotland above elsewhere near normal JUL N and W Scotland plus part of W Eire above elsewhere normal
PPN: Season: normal locally below in N nd E Scotland and S Eire
MAY normal but above normal for NE Scotland Wales and S half England JUN normal locally below N Ireland, N and E Scotland, NE England and locally above in E Midlands JUL mostly below normal but normal in NW Eire, W Highlands, Midlands and SE England.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 150416
TEMP: Season: normal
MAY normal JUN normal JUL normal
PPN: Season: normal locally below in E Scotland and N of England
MAY near normal JUN Scotland below normal elsewhere normal JUL Mostly below normal but normal for NW Ere NW Scotland S and E Midlands and SE England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 100416
TEMP: Season: normal (+/-0.5C)
MAY normal JUN normal JUL normal hint colder NE England
PPN: Season: normal locally above in W of Scotland
MAY normal locally above in SE England and W Scotland but below in Wales and SE Eire. JUN normal locally below in E Scotland but above in W Scotland and parts of NW England/NE Wales JUL normal locally below in Wales NE England E Scotland and S Eire but above in W Scotland AUG mostly above normal but normal in N and E Scotland, NE England N Ireland and W Eire. SEP mostly above normal locally normal in N and E Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010416
TEMP: Season: normal locally below in NE England
MAY normal JUN normal hints at below in N England JUL normal hints at below in NE England
PPN: Season: Normal locally above in NW Scotland and beklow in S Eire and Wales
MAY normal but above in SW and far SE England, N England, Scotland and Eire JUN below normal but N half Scotland normal JUL Below normal S Eire, NW England, W and S Wales and SW England. Above in NW Scotland and SE England elsewhere normal



UKMO contingency 260416 - suggestion of more frequent westerlies and above normal pressure in S.
TEMP: MAY uncertain, similar probs for above and below normal, no sig clusters distribution slightly shifted towards above normal.
MAY JUN JUL: Two clusters once slightly below normal or near normal and the other above normal. Above normal marginally more likely than below normal but either have similar probabilities.
PPN: MAY Large spread in solutions with a hint of clustering at the near or a little above normal.
MAY JUN JUL: Near or above normal seems most likely with about 30% of the plots suggesting below normal.



Korea APCC - 230416
Temp: Season slightly above normal
Montly data not available
PPN : Season no signal = similar probs above/normal/below
MAY no signal JUN no signal JUL mainly no signal hint that NE Scotland below normal



IRI multi-model ensemble information
USA - IRI - 210416 - forecasts tend to be overly warm
Temp: Above normal 50 to 60% prob
PPN : no preference for above/normal/below



BCC China - 160416 -
TEMP: Season: near or slightly above normal
PPN: Season: slightly above normal locally SE Eire below normal


Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes 150416
Temp: near normal slightly above in E
PPN : Normal but above for N Ireland SW Scotland NW England and N Wales
PMSL: below normal
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: near normal (+/-0.5C)
PPN : Eire, N Ireland Wales and England except NE above normal elsewhere normal
PMSL:



(Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg (50km) resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks 85 levels 75 ocean levels - 14 year hindcast 1996-2009)
UKMO - 110416 very mixed signals higher pressure but enhanced above normal rain risk.
TEMP: Near normal for N Ireland, Eire and parts of East Midlands/London area. Elsewhere above normal most likely. Highest risk for below normal in W Eire. Slightly enhanced chance of well above normal for N and E Scotland and N and E England.
PPN : Increased probs for above normal near W coasts of UK. S Wales and SW England increased probs for above normal elsewhere near normal. Probs for below normal highest in Midlands and central Eire. Enhanced probs for well above normal over N Ireland, S and E Eire Wales SW England and SW Scotland. Enhanced probs for well below normal W and Centrral Eire and Midlands England
PSML: Above normal in S elsewhere near normal but slightly enhanced probs for well above bormal over UK as whole but slightly enhanced probs for stronger Jet across the Atlantic may mean more frequent but weak weather systems.


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 110416
TEMP: Seasonabove normal locally normal in far W Eire
MAY above normal JUN Eire near normal elsewhere above normal JUL normal locally above in E and below in W Eire AUG normal locally above in NE and locally below W Eire SEP near normal OCT near or slightly above normal NOV above normal DEC above normal
PPN : Season normal
MAY near normal locally below in NE Scotland JUN near normal but below in SW England N Ireland W Scotland and Eire JUL normal AUG normal but far NW above SEP normal localy above in SW Eire and NE Scotland OCT below normal but Scotland and Eire normal locally above infar NW Scotland NOV normal but above in N Eire, N Ireland and W Scotland (higd probs for W Highlands) DEC near normal locally above in W Scotland


Japan JMA - 110416 - (June 2015 - 51 member ensemble accumulated (13+13+13+12) over 15 days run 5 days apart at 110km resolution)
Temp: Season slightly above normal but W of Eire slightly below
MAY slightly above normal JUN slightly above normal but W of Eire slightly below JUL slightly below normal but E slightly above normal
PPN : Season slightly below normal but N of Scotland slightly above
MAY slightly below normal but NE Scotland slightly above JUN slightly below normal but N of Scotland slightly above JUL slightly above normal but Eire, N Ireland and W Scotland slightly below
PMSL: Season slightly above normal (WNW)
MAY slightly above normal WSW JUN above normal (NW) JUL slightly below normal (NW)



Russia 010416
Temp: Above normal locally near normal in W Eire and W Scotland
PPN : Similar probs for above/normal/below


Meteorological Service of Canada, CanSIPS forecasts are based on a 10-member ensemble of forecasts produced with each of two CCCma climate models for a total ensemble size of 20. Hindcast period 1981 to 2010. CanSips is included in the NMME.
CanSips 010416
TEMP:
MAY normal locally above E England JUN normal JUL N half Scotland, Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere above normal
PPN :
MAY normal but central and E Scotland below JUN normal but London and home counties below JUL Scotland and N England normal elsewhere below
PMSL :
MAY Below normal in S above in N (SW) JUN below (W) JUL above (W)



The US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) is an experimental multi-model seasonal forecasting system consisting of coupled models from US modeling centers including NOAA/NCEP, NOAA/GFDL, IRI, NCAR, NASA, and Canada's CMC.
USA Seasonal combined ensemble NMME : Anomaly ranges for CFS2 different from CPC web.


Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 110416
TEMP: above normal but W Eire normal

PPN: near normal


Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 170416
TEMP: above normal but W Eire normal

PPN: near normal



Graphics
CFS2 TEMP



CFS2 PPN




NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME TEMP:





NMME PPN rate:




NMME TEMP PROBS:



NMME PPN:




UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly ***







Summer 2016 JUN JUL AUG -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Summary - 170416 - A weakly unsettled summer, less so in the south and more so in the north, probably better than last year in the S and E. Temperatures mostly near normal, possibly above normal in some central and eastern parts but with a risk of cooler than normal maximum temperatures across western areas (due to the below normal N Atlantic Sea Temperatures). Rainfall uncertain detail but probably near or above normal in the N and NW and near or below normal in the S and E. Chance of parts of June being drier but July remains the most likely month for longer dry spells and below normal rain, except perhaps in the NW. August probably wetter than normal for many areas but perhaps nearer normal rainfall in the N.
For an attempt at regional detail for SW England click here after about the 20th of the Month



Comment - IRI statistical rainfall probabilities not included as El Nino should be Neutral by summer 2016


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 230416
TEMP: Season: normal but above in NW Scotland
JUN NW Scotland above elsewhere near normal JUL N and W Scotland plus part of W Eire above elsewhere normal AUG near normal
PPN: Season: normal locally below N and E Scotland and SW Eire but above in E Midlandse
JUN normal locally below N Ireland, N and E Scotland, NE England and locally above in E Midlands JUL mostly below normal but normal in NW Eire, W Highlands, Midlands and SE England. AUG Mostly above locally below in NE Scotland and near normal SW Eire and N Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 150416
TEMP: Season: normal
JUN normal JUL normal AUG normal
PPN: Season: normal locally drier in NE England and E Scotland
JUN Scotland below normal elsewhere normal JUL Mostly below normal but normal for NW Eire NW Scotland S and E Midlands and SE England AUG mostly above normal but normal for E Scotland and NE England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 100416
TEMP: Season: normal
JUN normal JUL normal hint colder NE England AUG normal
PPN: Season: mostly normal but locally above in W Scotland W of Eire and Midlands
JUN normal locally below in E Scotland but above in W Scotland and parts of NW ENgland/NE Wales JUL normal locally below in Wales NE England E Scotland and S Eire but above in W Scotland AUG mostly above normal but normal in N and E Scotland, NE England N Ireland and W Eire.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010416
TEMP: Season: normal locally below in NE England
JUN normal hints at below in N England JUL normal hints at below in NE England AUG normal
PPN: Season: normal locally below in S and E Eire SW Scotland NW England and central Wales
JUN below normal but N half Scotland normal JUL Below normal S Eire, NW England, W and S Wales and SW England. Above in NW Scotland and SE England elsewhere normal AUG Normal but below in NW Scotland and N Ireland but above in all of S England



USA - IRI - 210416 - forecasts tend to be overly warm
Temp: Above normal SE England 40% up to 55% in NW
PPN : no preference for above/normal/below



BCC China - 160416 -
TEMP: Season: near or slightly above normal
PPN: Season: near normal


Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes 150416
Temp: near normal slightly above in E
PPN : Normal but above for N Ireland SW Scotland NW England and N Wales
PMSL: below normal
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: near normal (+/-0.5C)
PPN : Eire, N Ireland Wales and England except NE above normal elsewhere normal
PMSL:


UKMO - 110416
TEMP: S and E of UK plus Eire near normal elsewhere above normal with chance of W Eire below normal. Enhanced probs for England except the SW and Scotland except the W for well above normal, highest probs Aberdeenshire (more than 40%)
PPN : Reduced probs for above normal in S of England, increased probs in N Ireland NW England and W Scotland. Enhanced probs for well above normal Scotland, N ireland, NW England and Cornwall. Other areas normal most likely.
PSML: Above normal especially in S, chance of well above normal.


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 110416
TEMP: Season western areas normal elsewhere above
JUN Eire near normal elsewhere above normal JUL normal locally above in E and below in W Eire AUG normal locally above in NE and locally below W Eire
PPN : Season normal
JUN near normal but below in SW England N Ireland W Scotland and Eire JUL normal AUG normal but far NW above
CanSips 010416
TEMP:
JUN normal JUL N half Scotland, Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere above normal AUG SE England above elsewhere normal
PPN :
JUN normal but London and home counties below JUL Scotland and N England normal elsewhere below AUG normal but above in N half Eire, N Ireland, N England and Scotland.
PMSL :
JUN below (W) JUL above (W) AUG below (W)



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 110416
TEMP: above normnal but W Eire normal

PPN: no signal for a departure from normal



Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 170416
TEMP: above normal (Note August near normal except Scotland above)

PPN: near normal



Graphics 110416
CFS2 TEMP



CFS2 PPN




NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME TEMP:





NMME PPN rate:




NMME TEMP PROBS:



NMME PPN:




UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly 170416







JUL AUG SEP -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 230416
TEMP: Season: normal
JUL N and W Scotland plus part of W Eire above elsewhere normal AUG near normal SEP near normal
PPN: Season: normal locally below in Scotland and SW Eire but locally above in E Midlands
JUL mostly below normal but normal in NW Eire, W Highlands, Midlands and SE England. AUG Mostly above locally below in NE Scotland and near normal SW Eire and N Scotland SEP mostly near normal but below in Wales and most of Eire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 150416
TEMP: Season: normal
JUL normal AUG normal SEP normal
PPN: Season: normal but above normal for Wales and S half of England and central Eire
JUL Mostly below normal but normal for NW Ere NW Scotland S and E Midlands and SE England AUG mostly above normal but normal for E Scotland and NE England SEP Above normal except Scotland normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 100416
TEMP: Season: normal
JUL normal hint colder NE England AUG normal SEP normal
PPN: Season: above normal but normal in far SW Eire, N and E Eire, N Ireland N and E Scotland and NE England
JUL normal locally below in Wales NE England E Scotland and S Eire but above in W Scotland AUG mostly above normal but normal in N and E Scotland, NE England N Ireland and W Eire. SEP mostly above normal locally normal in N and E Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010416
TEMP: Season: normal locally below in NE England
JUL normal hints at below in NE England AUG normal SEP normal
PPN: Season: normal locally below in N Ireland and SW Scotland but above in SE England
JUL Below normal S Eire, NW England, W and S Wales and SW England. Above in NW Scotland and SE England elsewhere normal AUG Normal but below in NW Scotland and N Ireland but above in all of S England SEP normal locally above in far SE England and below in far NW Scotland



USA - IRI - 210416 - forecasts tend to be overly warm
Temp: Above normal S Eire and SW England 40% up to 55% in N and E of UK
PPN : NW Scotland 40% prob below normal elsewhere no preference for above/normal/below



BCC China - 160416 -
TEMP: Season: England and Wales near or slightly above normal elsewhere slightly below normal
PPN: Season: Scotland slightly above elsewhere slightly below


UKMO - 110416
TEMP: Wales, W and SW England, N Ireland and Eire most likely near normal elsewhere above normal with enhanced probs for well above in E of UK.
PPN : S and E Eire, S Wales and S/E of England below normal most likely. Scotland and N Ireland above normal most likely. Enhanced probs or well above normal in N. Enhanced probs for well below normal in S.
PSML: Above normal across the S of UK risk of below normal in the NW. Enhanced probs for well above normal across UK.


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 110416
TEMP: Season mostly near normal but NE and E above
JUL normal locally above in E and below in W Eire AUG normal locally above in NE and locally below W Eire SEP near normal
PPN : Season normal
JUL normal AUG normal but far NW above SEP normal localy above in SW Eire and NE Scotland
CanSips 010416
TEMP:
JUL N half Scotland, Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere above normal AUG SE England above elsewhere normal SEP normal
PPN :
JUL Scotland and N England normal elsewhere below AUG normal but above in N half Eire, N Ireland, N England and Scotland SEP normal but above normal for N Ireland, NE Eire and most of Scotland except the SE
PMSL :
JUL above (W) AUG below (W) SEP below in N above in SW (WSW)




AUG SEP OCT -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 230416
TEMP: Season:
AUG near normal SEP near normal OCT near normal
PPN: Season: mostly above normal locally normal in EIre, N Ireland NE Scotland and part of central S England
AUG Mostly above locally below in NE Scotland and near normal SW Eire and N Scotland SEP mostly near normal but below in Wales and most of Eire OCT mostly above but normal foe N Ireland N and E Eire and central S England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 150416
TEMP: Season: normal
AUG normal SEP normal OCT normal
PPN: Season: above normal for Wales and S half of England elsewhere normal
AUG mostly above normal but normal for E Scotland and NE England SEP Above normal except Scotland normal OCT N half Scotland normal elsewhere below normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 100416
TEMP: Season: normal (+/- 0.5C)
PPN: Season: above normal but normal in NW Eire, N Irelnd N and E Scotland and NE England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010416
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal locally below in N Scotland and N Ireland



Korea APCC - 230416
Temp: Season slightly above normal
Montly data not available
PPN : Season mostly no signal but NW Scotland above normal
AUG no signal but hint NW Scotland above and SW Eire normal SEP no signal OCT no signal


USA - IRI - 210416 - forecasts tend to be overly warm
Temp: Above normal in S England and S Eire 40% up to 55% in NE Scotland
PPN : West Scotland 40% prob below normal elsewhere no preference for above/normal/below



BCC China - 160416 -
TEMP: Season: Scotland, N Ireland and Eire slightly below normal elsewhere slightly above normal
PPN: Season: above normal


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 110416
TEMP: Season near normal
AUG normal locally above in NE and locally below W Eire SEP near normal OCT near or slightly above normal
PPN : Season normal locally below in SW and above in far NW
AUG normal but far NW above SEP normal localy above in SW Eire and NE Scotland OCT below normal but Scotland and Eire normal locally above infar NW Scotland
CanSips 010416
TEMP:
AUG SE England above elsewhere normal SEP normal OCT Eire and Cornwall normal elsewhere above
PPN :
AUG normal but above in N half Eire, N Ireland, N England and Scotland SEP normal but above normal for N Ireland, NE Eire and most of Scotland except the SE OCT Wales and S half of England below, NW Eire N Ireland and N and W Scotland above elsewhere normal
PMSL :
AUG below (W) SEP below in N above in SW (WSW) OCT above, strongly in S (SW)




Autumn 2016 SEP OCT NOV -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Summary - 170416 - Near or slightly milder than normal Autumn due mainly to milder second half of the period. Trend to La Nina, if correct, implies drier England and Wales and wetter N and W Scotland. There is some support for this in the seasonal models with the N wetter and the S possibly drier than normal especially in the latter half of the period.

For 1981-2010 average snow lying/snow falling days UKMO snow-in-the-uk
IRI Statistical data for potential La Nina affect on UK PPN

IRI climate impacts.


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 230416
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: mostly above normal lbut normal in Central S England, parts of Midlands, NE Scotland, Eire and N Ireland.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 150416
TEMP: Season: Normal
PPN: Season: Normal but above normal for Wales, Midlands and SE England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 100416
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: above normal locally normal in N and E Scotland, NE England and NW Eire.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010416
TEMP: Season: normal but above in NW Scotland
PPN: Season: normal locally below in N Ireland and E Scotland but above in W Scotland



BCC China - 160416 -
TEMP: Season: slightly above normal
PPN: Season: slightly above normal


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 110416
TEMP:
SEP near normal OCT near or slightly above normal NOV above normal
PPN :
SEP normal localy above in SW Eire and NE Scotland OCT below normal but Scotland and Eire normal locally above infar NW Scotland NOV normal but above in N Eire, N Ireland and W Scotland (high probs for W Highlands)
CanSips 010416
TEMP:
SEP normal OCT Eire and Cornwall normal elsewhere abiove NOV normal but N Ireland, Scotland and N of England above
PPN :
SEP normal but above normal for N Ireland, NE Eire and most of Scotland except the SE OCT Wales and S half of England below, NW Eire N Ireland and N and W Scotland above elsewhere normal NOV N half of Scotland normal elsewhere below
PMSL :
SEP below in N above in SW (WSW) OCT above, strongly in S (SW) NOV above, strongly in S (SW)



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly 080416







2016 OCT NOV DEC -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 230416
TEMP: Season: msotly above normal but S Eire normal
PPN: Season: mostly above normal but normal in NE Scotland, Eire and N Ireland also parts of SW England.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 150416
TEMP: Season: Normal
PPN: Season: Normal but below normal southern half of Eire



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 110416
TEMP:
OCT near or slightly above normal NOV above normal DEC above normal
PPN :
OCT below normal but Scotland and Eire normal locally above infar NW Scotland NOV normal but above in N Eire, N Ireland and W Scotland (high probs for W Highlands) DEC near normal locally above in W Scotland


BCC China - 160416 -
TEMP: Season: slightly above normal
PPN: Season: slightly above normal but Eire slightly below


CanSips 010416
TEMP:
OCT Eire and Cornwall normal elsewhere abiove NOV normal but N Ireland, Scotland and N of England above DEC normal J
PPN :
OCT Wales and S half of England below, NW Eire N Ireland and N and W Scotland above elsewhere normal NOV N half of Scotland normal elsewhere below DEC normal but Scotland below and SW England above
PMSL :
OCT above, strongly in S (SW) NOV above, strongly in S (SW) DEC normal in S below in N and W (SW)




2016 NOV DEC 2017 JAN -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


BCC China - 160416 -
TEMP: Season: near or slightly above normal
PPN: Season: England and Wales above normal elsewhere slightly below


CanSips 010416
TEMP:
NOV normal but N Ireland, Scotland and N of England above DEC normal JAN above normal except Eire, SW Wales SW and S England normal
PPN :
NOV N half of Scotland normal elsewhere below DEC normal but Scotland below and SW England above JAN normal but N Scotland above
PMSL :
NOV above, strongly in S (SW) DEC normal in S below in N and W (SW) JAN above, strongly in S but below in far N (strong SW)




WINTER 2016 DEC 2017 JAN FEB -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Summary - 170416 - Very limited data suggests slightly above normal temperatures due to milder January (possibly colder Feb in S). Slightly wetter than normal except parts of the S and SW which may be drier due to drier February in the S and nearer normal Dec and Jan.
For 1981-2010 average snow lying/snow falling days UKMO snow-in-the-uk

IRI Statistical data for potential La Nina affect on UK PPN

IRI climate impacts.


BCC China - 160416 -
TEMP: Season: slightly above normal
PPN: Season: slightly above normal but near normal in N


CanSips 010416
TEMP:
DEC normal JAN above normal except Eire, SW Wales SW and S England normal FEB normal MAR NW Scotland, N Ireland, Eire SW Wales and SW England normal elsewhere above
PPN :
DEC normal but Scotland below and SW England above JAN normal but N Scotland above FEBScotland and N Ireland normal but elsewhere below normal MAR normal but far NW above and far S below
PMSL :
DEC normal in S below in N and W (SW) JAN above, strongly in S but below in far N (strong SW) FEB above, strongly in S, below in far N (strong SW) MAR slightly above in SE elsewhere below especially to NW (SW)



NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normals is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR – 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory


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