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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK area - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous summary - MAR 2015 data
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Summary of internationally available experimental Seasonal Forecasts for UK and Eire for 1 and 3 month periods

Updated 280415. Main updates are noted on Twitter @T2mike


This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest


Click for El NINO info


APRIL data awaited from the GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES

All data complete
Data used so far: Russia 010415; CFS2 120415 030415; Graphics CFS2 and NMME 070415, NMME and IMME seasonal 130415; USA NASA GMAO GSFC 130415, UKMO seasonal 130415; BCC China 130414, Japan JMA 170415, USA - IRI 160415, Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS) 160415, Korea APCC 220415, UKMO Contingency 280415


NOTE 1: It is much easier to have above normal UK temps when compared to 1961-1990 series than 1981-2010
Note 2:UKMO climate model change and ENDGAME UKMO Notice



Sites with no data
Russia ok again 140215
USA - FSU GSM COAPS seasonal anoms WEB SITE NOT UPDATING since AUG2014


CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 00Z on date shown



SEASONAL FORECAST
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).



MAY JUN JUL 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Summary 280415: IRI climate impacts stats for El Nino supports normal or above normal rain see links below
Summary 140415: Temps likely to be normal or slightly above especially in E. Some risk of W and SW being cooler later in period. PPN spread of solutions hinting at normal or above normal but above normal less likely in north.

Comment - 280415 - N Atlantic dominated by below normal Sea temperatures, for example click here. Hence western areas (especially W of Eire) at risk of near or below normal temps even with westerly types. East more likely to be above normal (especially compared to 1961-90 averages). However anoms for 13th show warming out hence may be less of an issue that models suggest. click here.
And this has continued 27th click here.



For info IRI climate impacts data regards above, normal or below normal rain in UK area May June July with El Nino
El Nino prob above normal ppn
El Nino prob normal ppn
El Nino prob below normal ppn


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 260415
TEMP: Season: normal
MAY normal JUN normal JUL normal
PPN: Season: normal
MAY normal but below NW England, Scotland and Central Eire JUN normal but below in far N Scotland and above in Eire NW England W Midlands and SW England JUL normal but W Scotland above and below in E Eire, N England and Wales.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 210415
TEMP: Season: normal
MAY normal JUN normal but Scotland and SE England above JUL normal
PPN: Season: normal but SW England and SW Eire above
MAY below normal but S of England and S Eire normal JUN Wales, Midlands, SW England, Scotland and most of Eire above normal elsewhere normal JUL mostly normal but SE Eire below and above normal for N half Scotland and E Midlands

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 120415
TEMP: Season: normal but parts of NE England below normal
MAY normal JUN normal but parts of NE England below normal JUL normal but parts of NE England, SW England, W Wales and S and E Eire below normal
PPN: Season: normal
MAY normal but parts of SW Midlands and NW Scotland drier JUN normal but locally drier in NE England and locally wetter in NW Scotland JUL mostly above normal but above normal for N Scotland, N Ireland N and SW Eire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 030415 normal implies warmer than 61-90 averages but nearer 1981-2010 values
TEMP: Season: normal
MAY normal hint colder in S and E England JUN normal but NE England colder JUL normal but NE England colder
PPN: Season: normal (N wales below)
MAY normal but above in S and W Scotland and SW Eire JUN below normal for SW England N and NE England N Ireland and Scotland JUL Above in W Eire and W Scotland below in Cornwall and Wales elsewhere normal




UKMO contingency 280415
MAY TEMP: Slightly higher number of runs suggest below normal rather than above with about a third suggesting near normal (1981-2010). However the majority of 2005-14 May have been above this average. Nearly 70% of solutions are cooler than the 05-14 May average. Hence cooler than 2014 perhaps more like 2013 overall probably near or slightly below the 1981-2010 average.
MJJ Season TEMP: Above 1981-2010 average most likely but output looks to have similar cluster of solutions 0.5C above and 0.5C below. Slightly enhanced probs of well above normal. Note compared to 2005-14 most solutions are below this higher average hence cooler than 2014. (If May is cooler and above average expected than June or July may be much warmer?)
MAY PPN: Most output is above the long term 1981-2010 average so on the face of it above normal rain is likely. However comparing with the 2005 to 2014 period almost 60% of solutions lie below this higher average figure (aprox 80mm compared to 70mm). So above or well above the 1980/2010 period but perhaps not as wet as May 2013 and 2014.
MJJ Season PPN: Slightly enhaced prob of well above normal rain. That said there looks to be two groupings in the output one above normal (1981-2010) and one below the latter perhaps having more members.


UKMO - 130415
TEMP: SE half of England 60 to 80% prob above normal, less than 40% in W Eire. Most of Eire enhanced risk of well below normal with most of UK Except N Ireland and N and W Scotland showning enhanced probs for well above normal
PPN : Signal for above normal in England elsewhere normal. Enhanced probs for well below normal W Scotland elsewhere (except Eire) well above
PSML: Similar probs for well above/well below normal. Main signal near normnal but with risk of below normal in S of England/N France - combined with above normal 500hPa heights looks like thermal lows?


Korea APCC - 220413
Temp: Season near normal chance of above in E and below in W
MAY near normal chance of above in E and below in W JUN near normal chance of above in E and below in W JUL near normal chance of above in E and below in W
PPN : Season no signal for departure from normal ranges
MAY no signal for departure from normal ranges JUN no signal for departure from normal ranges JUL no signal for departure from normal ranges


BCC China - 140415 - data from 010415
TEMP: Season: slightly above normal
PPN: Season: Normal in N elsewhere below normal especially in SW England


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 130415
TEMP: Season near normal
MAY near normal perhaps slightly above in E JUN near normal perhaps slightly above in E JUL Eire, SW England and S Wales slightly below normal elsewhere normal
PPN : Season near normal
MAY slightly below normal JUN normal but Scotland slightly below normal JUL normal


Japan JMA 160415 (data run 110415)
Temp: Season slightly below normal
MAY slightly below normal JUN slightly below normal except S Eire slightly above JUL slightly below normal except far N Scotland slightly above
PPN : Season slightly below normal
MAY slightly below normal except SW England slightly above JUN slightly below normal JUL SE England slightly above elsewhere slightly below
PMSL: Season slightly above normal (Weak NW mean flow)
MAY above normal (Very weak NW mean flow) JUN slightly above (Weak NW mean) JUL slighgtly above normal (Weak WNW)


USA - IRI - 170415
Temp: Probs for above normal range from 50-60% in NW UK and NW Eire to 40% or lower in SE
PPN : no signal for departure from normal climate variation.


Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes 160415
Temp: near normal but slightly above in east
PPN : near normal
PMSL: slightly below normal
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: near normal
PPN : near normal


Russia 310315
Temp: Eire and Scotland below normal 60-70% probs. Hint of above normal E of England and nea normal NE Scotland elsewhere similar prob ranges for above/normal/below.
PPN : similar prob ranges for above/normal/below but NE Scotland and NE England may be ab ove and S Eire and SW England close to normal


The US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) is an experimental multi-model seasonal forecasting system consisting of coupled models from US modeling centers including NOAA/NCEP, NOAA/GFDL, NCAR, NASA, and Canada's CMC. See - BAMS article describing the project (Kirtman et al. 2014) . NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.
USA Seasonal combined ensemble NMME : Anomaly ranges for CFS2 different from CPC web.


Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 070415
TEMP: SEASON: slightly above normal

PPN: SEASON: near normal, perhaps in SW and NW below normal



Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 170415

TEMP: SEASON: near normal
PPN: SEASON: near normal



CFS2 MAX MIN 070415





CFS2 TEMP



CFS2 PPN



NMME MAX and MIN




NMME TEMP:



NMME PPN:







SUMMER JUN JUL AUG 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

IRI Climate impacts
Ref IRI - Mason, S.J. and L. Goddard, 2001: Probabilistic precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 82, 619-638.

Summary 140415: Temps near or slightly above normal, some risk of W or SW being a little cooler. PPN normal but risk of above normal mainly in S half of UK and Eire. 170415: weak El Nino link might imply E more at risk of avove normal PPN than S (see graphic above).

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 260415
TEMP: Season: normal
JUN normal JUL normal AUG normal
PPN: Season: normal
JUN normal but below in far N Scotland and above in Eire NW England W Midlands and SW England JUL normal but W Scotland above and below in E Eire, N England and Wales AUG normal locally above NW Highland but below in S and E Scotland and N Wales.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 210415
TEMP: Season: normal
JUN normal but Scotland and SE England above JUL normal AUG normal
PPN: Season: above normal SW England Midlands NW England Central Sctland and S and SW Eire elsewhere normal
JUN Wales, Midlands, SW England, Scotland and most of Eire above normal elsewhere normal JUL mostly normal but SE Eire below and above normal for N half Scotland and E Midlands AUG Above normal for Midlands, NE Wales and W parts Eire elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 120415
TEMP: Season: normal but parts of NE England below normal
JUN normal but parts of NE England below normal JUL normal but parts of NE England, SW England, W Wales and S and E Eire below normal AUG normal
PPN: Season: above normal in central and S England W Highlands and central Eire elsewhere normal
JUN normal but locally drier in NE England and locally wetter in NW Scotland JUL mostly above normal but normal for N Scotland, N Ireland N and SW Eire AUG normal but W Scotland drier, central Eire and S half England wetter.
TEMP: Season: normal
JUN normal but NE England colder JUL normal but NE England colder AUG normal
PPN: Season: normal but below in; Cornwall parts of Wales N England SW Scotland and SW Eire
JUN below normal for SW England N and NE England N Ireland and Scotland JUL Above in W Eire and W Scotland below in Cornwall and Wales elsewhere normal AUG normal but below in W and N Eire, N Ireland W Scotland, W Cornwall above in SE and central S England elsewhere normal



UKMO - 130415
TEMP: Above normal 60-80% prob for E Eire, Wales, England and S Scotland. Enhanced probs for well above normal except W Eire.
PPN : Below normal over Scotland but above normal for England Wales especially S England with slightly enhanced probs for well above normal.
PSML: Prob of pressure being slightly above normal in north and below in SW/S.


USA - IRI - 170415
Temp: Probs for above normal range from 40-50% in N to 40% in S
PPN : no signal for departure from normal climate variation.


BCC China - 140415 - data from 010415
TEMP: Season: Eire and Scotland slightly below elsewhere slightly above
PPN: Season: close to normal perhaps above in N


Korea APCC - 220413
Temp:
JUN near normal chance of above in E and below in W JUL near normal chance of above in E and below in W AUG near normal chance of above in E
PPN :
JUN no signal for departure from normal ranges JUL no signal for departure from normal ranges AUG no signal for departure from normal ranges


Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes 160415
Temp: near normal
PPN : near normal
PMSL: slightly below normal
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: near normal
PPN : near normal but slighly above in SW and far E


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 130415
TEMP: Season near normal
JUN near normal perhaps slightly above in E JUL Eire, SW England and S Wales slightly below normal elsewhere normal AUG normal perhaps slightly above in E
PPN : Season near normal
JUN normal but Scotland slightly below normal JUL normal AUG SE England normal elsewhere slightly below normal


Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 070415
TEMP: SEASON: slightly above normal but SE half of England above normal

PPN: SEASON: near normal, perhaps in SW England and Scotland below normal



Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 170415

TEMP: SEASON: near normal - monthly data suggests Jul slightly above normal
PPN: SEASON: near normal



CFS2 MAX MIN 070415





CFS2 TEMP



CFS2 PPN



NMME TEMP:



NMME PPN:





JUL AUG SEP 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 260415
TEMP: Season: normal
JUL normal AUG normal SEP normal OCT normal
PPN: Season: normal but below in S Scotland Wales SW England S and E Eire
JUL normal but W Scotland above and below in E Eire, N England and Wales AUG normal locally above NW Highland but below in S and E Scotland and N Wales SEP mostly below normal but normal in N and E England.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 210415
TEMP: Season: normal
JUL normal AUG normal SEP normal
PPN: Season: normal locally below in SE Eire and above in Midlands
JUL mostly normal but SE Eire below and above normal for N half Scotland and E Midlands AUG Above normal for Midlands, NE Wales and W parts Eire elsewhere normal SEP Below normal for Eire, N Scotland and NW Wales elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 120415
TEMP: Season: normal but coastal parts of NE England below normal
MAY normal JUN normal but parts of NE England below normal JUL normal but parts of NE England, SW England, W Wales and S and E Eire below normal AUG normal SEP normal OCT normal
PPN: Season: mostly above normal but normal for NE Scotland, N Ireland and N and E Eire.
JUL mostly above normal but normal for N Scotland, N Ireland N and SW Eire AUG normal but W Scotland drier, central Eire and S half England wetter. SEP normal but wetter in W Eire, W Scotland, NW England, Midlands and S of England
TEMP: Season: normal
JUL normal but NE England colder AUG normal SEP normal
PPN: Season: normal
JUL Above in W Eire and W Scotland below in Cornwall and Wales elsewhere normal AUG normal but below in W and N Eire, N Ireland W Scotland, W Cornwall above in SE and central S England elsewhere normal SEP normal but above in N and W Eire SW and W Scotland and NW England


UKMO - 130415
TEMP: Above normal in SE with enhanced probs for well above normal. Risk below normal in far W Eire. Elsewhere normal.
PPN : Normal or above most areas. Slightly enhanced risk well above normal except Eire and central Scotland
PSML: near normal perhaps below in S


BCC China - 140415 - data from 010415
TEMP: Season: slightly below normal
PPN: Season: normal perhaps above in N


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 130415
TEMP: Season near normal
JUL Eire, SW England and S Wales slightly below normal elsewhere normal AUG normal perhaps slightly above in E SEP normal perhaps slightly below in Scotland and Eire/N Ireland.
PPN : Season near normal
JUL normal AUG SE England normal elsewhere slightly below normal SEP normal


USA - IRI - 170415
Temp: Probs for above normal range from 40-50% in N and E of UK to 40-45% in the S and SW of UK and most of Eire
PPN : no signal for departure from normal climate variation.


Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 070415
TEMP: SEASON: slightly above normal but SE half of England above normal

PPN: SEASON: near normal, perhaps in SW England and Scotland below normal




AUG SEP OCT 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 260415
TEMP: Season: normal
AUG normal SEP normal OCT normal
PPN: Season: normal normal but above in W Scotland and locally below in parts of far E and far W Eire
AUG normal locally above NW Highland but below in S and E Scotland and N Wales SEP mostly below normal but normal in N and E England. OCT normal but above in Scotland.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 210415
TEMP: Season: normal
AUG normal SEP normal OCT normal
PPN: Season: normal locally below in SW Eire and above in N Midlands
AUG Above normal for Midlands, NE Wales and W parts Eire elsewhere normal SEP Below normal for Eire, N Scotland and NW Wales elsewhere normal OCT above normal N half Scotland elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 120415
TEMP: Season: normal
AUG normal SEP normal OCT normal
PPN: Season: above normal for S and W Eirem and S half of England elsewhere normal
AUG normal but W Scotland drier, central Eire and S half England wetter. SEP normal but wetter in W Eire, W Scotland, NW England, Midlands and S of England OCT NE Scotland drier, wetter for Eire, SW England, Wales, W Midlands and SE England
USA - NCEP CFS2 - 030415 normal implies warmer than 61-90 averages but nearer 1981-2010 values
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in Midlands SE Englabd SW Scotland



BCC China - 140415 - data from 010415
TEMP: Season: normal or slightly below
PPN: Season: normal perhaps above in N


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 130415
TEMP: Season near normal
AUG normal perhaps slightly above in E SEP normal perhaps slightly below in Scotland and Eire/N Ireland. OCT normal perhaps slightly below in Eire
PPN : Season near normal
AUG SE England normal elsewhere slightly below normal SEP normal OCT Eire and W Scotland slightly below normal elsewhere normal


USA - IRI - 170415
Temp: Probs for above normal range from 50-60% in N of UK to 40-50% elewhere but below 40% (climatology) in SW of Eire
PPN : no signal for departure from normal climate variation.



Autumn SEP OCT NOV 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 260415
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal normal but Eire below normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 210415
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal locally below in SW Eire and above in W Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 120415
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: above normal for Eire, Wales and S England elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 030415 normal implies warmer than 61-90 averages but nearer 1981-2010 values
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal but above SW England, Wales, W Midlands, NW England SW and W Scotland also much of Eire



BCC China - 140415 - data from 010415
TEMP: Season: near normal perhaps slighly below
PPN: Season: normal perhaps below in England


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 130415
TEMP: SEP normal perhaps slightly below in Scotland and Eire/N Ireland. OCT normal perhaps slightly below in Eire NOV normal but England, Wales and S half Eire below Dec SE England normal elsewhere below normal
PPN: SEP normal OCT Eire and W Scotland slightly below normal elsewhere normal NOV below normal DEC W Scotland below normal elsewhere normal



Winter 2015 Dec 2016 JAN FEB 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


BCC China - 140415 - data from 010415
TEMP: Season: slightly below normal
PPN: Season: slightly below normal but normal in N


CFS2 April 2015 2M temperature suggests near normal Dec, milder Jan 2016 and much colder for a period in Feb 2016.

NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normals is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR – 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE. with the the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

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