Verification of Experimental Seaonal Summary Forecast for UK area, Summer 2012


Met Office Summer 2012
Met Office stats for summer 2012 - note differeneces between 30 year average periods reflect warming trend in recent decades.




In brief well above or above normal rain except in far north with near normal montly average temps (+/-1 C) - slightly cooler than normal if anything.
How well did the experimental forecast do?
Issued Feb 2012
Not very good!
Summary for Summer 2012 = limited data - little signal - near normal temp, perhaps above normal across parts of Scotland. Following from early summer
above normal temps, this near normal trend may imply a cooler part July/August. Precipitation near normal but perhaps higher totals across NW.

Issued March 2012
Summary OK CFS near normal temps OK but little indiaction of wetter in output.
June July August 2012 Summary - Mixed bag summer? Near normal temperature overall, some variations on areas above or below normal. PPN normal favoured with hint of above normal in places.

UK
TEMP: Mostly above normal (40-60%) except far N of Scotland.
PPN : Little signal - hint above above normal for parts of Wales and W of England.
PMSL: Near normal, slightly above to the north and below to S of UK.

USA - NCEP CFS1 MONTHLY replaced by CFS 2 in July 2012
TEMP: June normal, July normal, August normal.
June normal 40% prob below N England and 40% above elsewhere. July near normal but 40% below normal
for parts of N Ireland and Eire. Aug SW 40% prob of below, SE 40% above, normal elsewhere.
PPN : Overall above normal. June wetter (40%) except SE where normal. July S Normal 40% above elsewhere.
August (40%) above normal PPN,

USA - NCEP CFS2 MONTHLY
Temp: No signal away from normal range
Monthly data - June July and August near normal.
PPN : Mostly near normal but far NW wetter and far SE drier than normal.

Monthly suggests June below normal in Scotland and Lincs above normal in Wales and
NW England but normal elsewhere. July NW UK and parts of SW above normal PPN, E of
England below normal, elsewhere near normal. August near normal but SE England and parts
of Eire/N Ireland lower ppn totals than normal.

Issued April 2012Poor forcast
June July August 2012
Summary - Probably above normal temps for much of the period. Hints of drier than normal in E and wetter in NW, mixed signal for other areas.
UK
TEMP: Southern two thirds of UK prob 40-60% above normal, similar probs above/normal/below elsewhere.
Mod probs well above normal, 40-55% probs Midlands.
PPN : Higher probs 40-60% to be near or below normal all areas. Well below normal 25 to 40% for parts of W and S UK.


Issued May 2012 Temps reasonable forecast, rainfall some indication of wetter from UK and CFS
June July August 2012
Summary - mixed signal from different systems, slight favour for higher pressure than normal but no signal for hot summer. Nearer normal at best.
Hints at wetter in some southern areas.

UK
TEMP: Typlically near normal but cooler across the far N of UK and SE England, possibly less so later in period.
PPN : Northern UK (mainly Scotland) drier than normal. Elsewhere less certain with mod prob well above normal rain across S and SW of UK.
PMSL: Above normal pressure across the N and to the N of UK (hence possibly more easterlies for E of England)

USA - NCEP CFS1 MONTHLY replaced by CFS 2 in July 2012 15052012
TEMP: June; near normal but cooler in W. July; near normal. August; cooler than normal.
PPN : June; near normal but drier in W. July; near normal, below in S. August; below normal.
USA - NCEP CFS2 MONTHLY 15052012
Temp: June; no signal July no signal August no signal.
PPN : June; near normal but below in N. July; Above in N, otherwise near normal. August; above in S, otherwise near normal.

Multi model ENS Hints and cooler and wetter across SW UK. Normal elswhere.


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