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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, 2021 Sept Oct Nov compiled 4 Dec 2021
Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts
CPC/UKMO MONTH TEMP
EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp mean anomaly
CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
ECMWF
WMO data
WMO combined multi model monthly - model probability OR anomaly.
Probability combined.
BOM monthly
Canada monthly
DWD monthly
CPTEC Brazil monthly
UKMO monthly
Moscow monthly
SEOUL monthly
Tokyo monthly
Toulouse monthly
Washington monthly
ECMWF monthly low resolution model probability of anomaly from WMO
CPC/UKMO MONTH PPN anomalies
EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS PPN rate mean anomaly
CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
JMA mean seal level pressure and anomaly - note 1991 to 2020 new thirty year period
UKMO summary
Review of details looked for in seasonal forecast.
Temperature Above avererage for the season but with near average values in the south in November.
Rainfall. In many areas the wetter October was canceeled out by the drier November. Overall will be looking for a drier than average signal for the season and hints to wetter in the far N and parts of NW England/SW Scotland.
Sunshine. Below average in N and W and above average in some eastern areas.
Pressure. mostly above average in the south.
Follow link to
original forecast summary for detail of forecast.
DATA available in August for 2021 September October November
Original Summary - 170821 -
Main theme seems to be for near or slightly above normal temperatures for the season. Some hints at larger positive anomalies in either September or October. Rainfall quite mixed indication but there are more drier solutions than wet ones for the season especially for southern UK. Overall near average rainfall for the season seems likely but with chance of some longer dry periods most likely early in the Autumn and most likely in the S and E. Models differ as to which month could be the wettest/driest.
Comment: Good indication for above average and even for lower anomalies later in the season. Rainfall good hint at drier than average
Comment: Brazil, Washington and NMME had possibly the best precipitation indication. NMME, UKMO, French, WMO combined and Brazil did ok with temperature sequence.
Scoring will attempt to state good, fair, poor or no signal.
THREE MONTH SEASON
1. Russia (WMO): Temp poor PPN poor
2. USA - CFS2 : Temp fair . PPN fair .
3. UKMO Contingency: Temp good. PPN good .
4. UKMO : Temp good . PPN fair . PMSL good
5. USA - IRI : Temp no signal . PPN fair .
6. KMA APCC : Temp no signal . PPN mostly no signal / fair .
7. JMA : Temp good . PPN fair . PMSL good
8. NMME : Temp good . PPN good .
9. WMO multi : Temp good . PPN poor .
10. BCC : Temp fair . PPN fair .
11. NASA : Temp fair. PPN poor .
12. Brazil: Temp good. PPN good .
13. CanSips : Temp good . PPN fair .
14. IMME : Temp good . PPN fair .
15. Copernicus Temp fair . PPN fair . PMSL good
16. CMCC Temp poor . PPN poor . PMSL poor
17: DWD Temp fair . PPN fair . PMSL good
18. ECMWF Temp poor . PPN fair . PMSL fair
19 JMA Temp poor . PPN poor . PMSL poor
20 UKMO Temp good . PPN fair . PMSL good
21. MF Temp good . PPN good . PMSL good
22 NCEP Temp good . PPN fair . PMSL good
23 ECCC Temp: good . PPN good . PMSL good
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