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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, 2019 August September October- compiled 4th October


Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts


CPC/UKMO MONTH TEMP



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp mean anomaly

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
TN2 TN3 TN7

ECMWF
EC

WMO
WMO

UKMO
UKMO

CPC/UKMO MONTH PPN anomalies



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS PPN rate mean anomaly

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
TN5 TN6 TN8

JMA mean seal level pressure and anomaly


UKMO summary


Review of details looked for in seasonal forecast.
Temperature. Cooling trend from normal or above normal to below normal resulting in S being normal for season and north below.

Rainfall. Mostly above normal but locally normal in E England, N Ireland and Scotland mostly normal or below but above near E coast Scotland due to November rain.

Pressure. Overall below normal, September above then increasingly below normal



Follow link to original forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in August for September October November 2019


Original Summary - 160819 - Strong indication for above normal or at worst normal temperatures through the season, but less clear if any one month could see a stronger warm anomaly although hints at October or November with September possible nearer normal in some models. Rainfall large variations between models month to month (area to area) but overall more likely to be above normal for the season in western and SW parts of UK and Eire. About 40% prob for October to be drier and November wetter but very uncertain.

Comment: Poor temperature forecast BoM and perhaps Tokyo hinted at cooling trend but not colder than average. Most models failed to get colder signal. Rainfall signal for wetter in south was good but models in general were poor with only a few hinting at the drier Scotland.
Scoring will attempt to state good, fair, poor or no signal.
Comment:
1. Russia: Temp fair. PPN good.
2. USA - CFS2 : Temp poor . PPN good.
3. UKMO Contingency: Temp poor. PPN fair.
4. UKMO : Temp poor. PPN fair. PMSL good.
5. USA - IRI : Temp poor. PPN fair.
6. KMA APCC : Temp poor. PPN fair.
7. JMA : Temp poor. PPN poor. PMSL good
8. NMME : Temp poor. PPN poor.
9. IMME - Temp poor. PPN poor.
10. BCC - Temp poor. PPN poor.
11. NASA - Temp poor. PPN fair.
12. Brazil: Temp poor. PPN poor.
13. CanSips : Temp poor. PPN poor.
14. SAWS: : Temp poor. PPN poor.
15. Copernicus Temp poor. PPN no signal. PMSL no signal
16. EC Temp poor. PPN no signal . PMSL no signal
17. MF Temp poor. PPN fair. PMSL no signal
18. JAMSTEC: Temp poor. PPN poor.
19: CMCC Temp poor. PPN poor. PMSL poor.
20: DWD Temp poor. PPN poor. PMSL poor.



WMO combined multi model monthly - model probability of anomaly -
200


BOM monthly
200

Canada monthly
200

Moscow monthly
200

DWD monthly
200

SEOUL monthly
200

Washington monthly
200

UKMO monthly
200

ECMWF monthly low resolution model probability of anomaly from WMO
200

Toulouse monthly
200

Pretoria monthly
200

Tokyo monthly
200


ECMWF monthly
200

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