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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, September October November 2018 - compiled 3 December 2018

Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts


UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp mean anomaly

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.

ECMWF (note ppn reversed colour scheme)


UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS PPN rate mean anomaly

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.

JMA mean seal level pressure and anomaly

UKMO summary

Review of details looked for in seasonal forecast.
Temperature. Near or slightly above normal

Rainfall. SW England, NW England and NW Scotland above normal elsewhere below but look for indication of wetter November in N Ireland, Eire and SW and SE England

Pressure. Above normal overall but November below in W above in E.

Follow link to original forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in August for 2018 September October November

Scoring will attempt to state good, fair, poor or no signal.
Original Summary - 15/8/2018 - Majority of model solutions favour above or well above normal temperatures and although a few signal near normal temperatures none of the models indicate below normal temperatures. Rainfall forecasts are more variable but some indication of below normal rain for the first half of the three month season with above normal rain to follow especially for November. It is not clear if the season as a whole will end up above average despite a wetter latter half of the period although the SW of the UK probably will end up wetter than average.
Result: Probably slightly high with temperature although near or slightly above normal was good. Good signal for rainfall in SW and idea the idea of wetter later but parts of N England and N Scotland were also wetter and parts of central England drier than average.

1. Russia: Temp Good . PPN fair (good in SW) .
2. USA - CFS2 : Temp good . PPN good . Monthly detail fair.
3. UKMO Contingency: Temp Good . PPN Good .
4. UKMO : Temp good (a little warm) . PPN fair . PMSL Good .
5. USA - IRI : Temp no signal . PPN poor .
6. KMA APCC : Temp Good . PPN no signal .
7. JMA : Temp good . PPN poor . PMSL poor.
8. NMME : Temp good . PPN fair . Monthly detail poor.
9. IMME - Temp good . PPN fair .
10. BCC - Temp good . PPN fair.
11. NASA - Temp good . PPN poor .
12. Brazil: Temp good . PPN good .
13. CanSips : Temp good . PPN good .
14. SAWS: not available .
15. Copernicus Temp Good . PPN fair (good with SW) . PMSL poor
16. EC Temp Temp fair . PPN fair . PMSL poor
17. MF Temp fair . PPN fair . PMSL
18. JAMSTEC: Temp good . PPN good .
19: KMA: Temp good . PPN good . PMSL poor
20: ECMWF (monthly) Temp: good PPN: fair Monthly detail temp good rain misleading)
Most output had the idea of normal or above normal temperatures perhaps slightly on the warm side in many. Rainfall more variable and much less well signalled so difficult to pick the good from the bad.
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