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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, August September October 2017 - compiled 7 November 2017
Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts
CPC/UKMO MONTH TEMP and PPN anomalies
Summary - Temperatures for the season were above normal thanks to a mild October, will be checking monthly to see if sequencing was OK and if colder signal was given for the north (although anomaly was not large). Rainfall looking for a drier than normal signal and see if there was any hint of N Scotland and NW England/N Ireland being wetter. Monthly each month in NW England and N Scotland probably above normal, was there an indication for much drier in S/SE in October compared to September? Pressure signal below then above in monthly with seas above normal except N Scotland.
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original forecast summary for detail of forecast.
DATA available in August for 2017 September October November 2017
Original Summary - Temp season good but monthly changes poor. PPN fair but good with wetter NW and drier SE.
Scoring will attempt to state good, fair, poor or no signal.
1. Russia: Temp fair PPN fair for NW elsewhere no signal
2. USA - CFS2 : Temp fair PPN fair
3. UKMO Contingency: Temp fair PPN poor
4. UKMO : Temp fair PPN fair PMSL good
5. USA - IRI : Temp PPN
6. KMA APCC : Temp fair PPN no signal
7. JMA : Temp good but did not get colder in N in Nov PPN poor PMSL good
8. NMME : Temp season good but monthly fair (due to no cold signal in Nov) PPN good but monthly missed drier central Scotland
9. IMME - Temp fair PPN poor
10. BCC - Temp fair PPN fair
11. NASA - Temp fair PPN poor
12. Brazil: (KUO) Temp fair PPN poor PMSL hint of lower to N but below normal poor signal
13. CanSips : Temp fair PPN poor
14. SAWS: Temp fair PPN fair
15. Copernicus Temp fair PPN poor PMSl poor
16. EC Temp fair PPN poor PMSL poor
17. MF Temp good PPN poor PMSL poor
18. JAMTEC: Temp fair PPN poor
19: KMA: Temp fair PPN fair PMSL fair
CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP
NMME MAX and MIN n/a
NMME PPN rate:
NMME TEMP PROBS:
UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
DATA available in July for 2017 September October November 2017
Summary OK for season but month to month detail poor and did not get the colder north in November. Capernicus/EC had some idea of higher pressure in S and lower rainfall also hint of less mild in N.
DATA available in June for 2017 September October November 2017
Summary fairly good indication for above normal temp and below normal rain except in NW. Month to month detail not reliable.
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