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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, September October November 2016 - compiled 4th December 2016

Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts


CPC MONTH and THREE MONTH (Graphics added if available) TEMP and PPN anomalies

UKMO data

Statistical PPN during La Nina - note La Nina quite weak - implied drier than normal for Season was good except in the NW of Uk where wetter was implied.

Follow link to original forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in August 2016 for September October November 2016

Comment on the summary: Temperature forecast of near or slightly above normal was correct but the implied stronger anomalies for November was wrong (there were stronger anomalies but they were cold ones!). The forecast of below normal rainfall was correct but the extreme events associated with storm Angus and a daughter low (19 to 21 November) which brought 80 to 100mm of rain in what otherwise would have been a below normal rain month. Long Range Forecast systems are unable to spot extreme events.
Comment - Looks like the lack of ability to produce blocking patterns caused problems with this forecast period. None of the models with monthly output suggested colder November (except perhaps BCC China but this also had Sep colder). The month by rain forecast was also mostly incorrect except locally in SE Scotland NE and E England which was near normal. The assessment below is for the season.
1. Russia: Temps above normal OK 1961 to 1990 but not 1981 2010 reference period. Rain no signal.
2. USA - CFS2 : near normal OK but some locally warmer area. PPN signal not correct.
3. UKMO Contingency: Sept warmer OK. Season to strong a signal for above normal. PPN hint at below in Sept forecast but overall not correct for season.
4. UKMO : Overly strong signal for warmer and rainfall also not a correct inference.
UKMO signal for pressure to be above normal was good
5. USA - IRI : to warm and not help with rain.
6. KMA APCC : temps fair. PPN not a help
7. JMA : not correct.
8. NMME : Temps some indication of warmer areas but precip not correct after September.
9. IMME : Temps OK rain not a help.
12. BCC : Some idea at cooler temps in West but otherwise no great help. Rain signal for England and Wales OK elsewhere not good.
11. Brazil : to warm and to wet.
12. NASA : temps to warm and did not get drier.
13. CanSips : Temps OK PPN made some attempt to get below normal.






NMME PPN rate:



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly

DATA available in July 2016 for September October November 2016

Summary only BCC China got the correct trend to cooler November other centres with near normal temp were OK. Rain forecasts not good.

DATA available in May 2016 for September October November 2016

Summary no especially good forecast TEMP)S fair and PPN poor.

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