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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, September October November 2015 - compiled 7 December 2015

Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts

CPC MONTH and if available the THREE MONTH TEMP and PPN anomalies

JMA PMSL anomaly

UKMO data suggests:
TEMP: After a cooler than normal September Oct and especially November were above normal, so overall the UK was above normal by over 1C for the three month season.
PPN: Rainfall similar to CPC with only slightly different drier areas in November.

Follow link to orignal forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in August 2015 for Sep Oct Nov 2015

IRI EL Nino statistical relationship suggested drier in NW half of UK and Eire near normal in SE but parts of Wales and SW England wetter. The NW was drier but also the SE with the normal to wetter band shifted NW across N Wales, N England and S Scotland rather than over SW England and S Wales.
Link below to graphics.
IRI climate impacts.

Original Summary - Temp and Rain trend OK overall, but drier areas not indicated.
1. Russia: Temps OK in S not so good in N. PPN gave some indication of the wetter zone in middle of UK.
2. USA - CFS2 : Season a little cool but OK. Warming trend month to month quite well captured. PPN Season not so good.Trend to wetter OK but detail lacking.
3. UKMO Contingency: Temps OK PPN not good but spread of solutions indicated.
4. UKMO : Temp OK but NW not cooler. PPN not so good.
5. USA - IRI : Temp OK PPN poor
6. KMA APCC : Not helpful
7. JMA : Overly cool. PPN trend indicated but detail lacking.
8. NMME : Warming trend month to month quite well captured. Rainfall some attempt at trend but detail not so good. Season below normal indication was mostly OK.
9. IMME - Temp fair. PPN month to month trend OK but detail lacking.
10. BCC - Temps OK. PPN not so good.
11. NASA - TEmp not to good PPN some indication of drier areas but overall not so good.
12. Brazil: not good.

CFS2 mean TEMP (MAX MIN not shown)

CFS2 mean PPN

NMME MAX and MIN available

NMME TEMP: mean data




Ploted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp mean anomaly 080815 data from NOAA NCEP CPC server

Ploted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS means Precip anomaly (ignore scale) 080815 data from NOAA NCEP CPC server

DATA available in July 2015 for Sep Oct Nov 2015

Summary: Summary indicated the change to milder types but was not so clear about wetter. CFS2 gave some correct indication for season PPN distribution.

DATA available in June 2015 for Sep Oct Nov 2015

Summary: Temperature signal was good. PPN less good.

Any questions E Mail Mike

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