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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, Sept Oct Nov 2014 - compiled 5 Dec 2014





Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts





UK data shows UK average temperature

Follow links above to orignal forecast summary for more detail of forecast.

DATA available in August 2014 for SON 2014


The comment summary was overall OK for temp and fair for PPN but did not suggest drier Sept
1. Russia:
2. USA - CFS2 : did not get month to month detail and was a little on cool side as typical. PPN detail not correct but hinted at wetter later was OK.
3. UKMO : Temps OK PPN detail not good.
4. UKMO Contingency - was very good both in terms of temp and rain got the drier Sept.
5. USA - IRI : temp OK ppn poor.
6. KMA APCC : Temps good. PPN OK but did not get drier Sept.
7. JMA temps OK PPN detail not good.
8. NMME not good
9. IMME - slightly better than NMME but not good especially PPN.
10. BCC - temps and ppn not helpfull.
11. Brazil - temps OK ppn not good
12. NASA - temps OK ppn not good did not get drier Sept.

CFS2 MAX MIN
graphics no longer online but can be made available

DATA available in July 2014 for SON 2014

Most OK with temps and fair with ppn but not good.

DATA available in June 2014 for SON 2014

Models suggested above normal temps.
Some of the early in month runs of NCEP got the drier SEPT and implied wetter to follow. UK also hinted at drier than normal overall.


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