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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, September October November 2013 - compiled 20 Dec 2013



Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts





UK and Eire temps slightly above normal or above normal. UKMO data agrees but November colder than normal.
Rainfall drier overall especially in N and W but as shown by UKMO October was wetter.
The anomalies shown for W Eire look bit low - below normal was correct. See Met IE Monthly Data


Follow links above to orignal forecast summary for more detail of forecast.

DATA available in August 2013 for September October November 2013


Comment - most output suggested overall normal or slightly above temps but only KMA got the colder and drier November. PPN forecast mostly poor.
Impression that output is a little on the cold side from UK and CFS

1. Russia: Temps OK PPN overly wet.
2. USA - FSU : Temps OK (normal) PPN not good.
3. USA - CFS2 : Temps (normal) OK for season but not month by month. PPN poor (almost opposite to what happened)
4. UKMO : Contingency temp indication fairly good. PPN not so good. Main output Temps OK, misleading on PPN though mostly normal was OK for England
5. USA - NASA : Temps fair. PPN poor.
6. USA - IRI : Temps fair. PPN poor.
7. KMA / APCC - APCC not so good but the KMA data did pick out the colder and drier November
8. JMA - mixed signal season temps fair PPN not good.
9. NMME - Bland


DATA available in July 2013 for September October November 2013
Not much better than Aug data but UK hinted at some drier periods though not acros Eire.


DATA available in June 2013 for September October November 2013
CFS2 hinted at drier spells but otherwise output not especially helpfull with some showning cold bias.


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