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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, 2021 Oct Nov Dec compiled 4 Jan 2022


Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts


CPC/UKMO MONTH TEMP


EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp mean anomaly

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
TN2 TN3 TN7
ECMWF
EC


WMO data
WMO combined multi model monthly - model probability OR anomaly.

Probability combined.
200


BOM monthly
200

Canada monthly
200

DWD monthly
200
CPTEC Brazil monthly
200

UKMO monthly
200


Moscow monthly
200

SEOUL monthly
200

Tokyo monthly
200

Toulouse monthly
200

Washington monthly
200

ECMWF monthly low resolution model probability of anomaly from WMO
200



CPC/UKMO MONTH PPN anomalies


EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS PPN rate mean anomaly

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
TN5 TN6 TN8
NASA

JMA mean seal level pressure and anomaly - note 1991 to 2020 new thirty year period


UKMO summary


Review of details looked for in seasonal forecast.

Temperature. Above normal overall but November normal.
Rainfall. Below average mainly due to dry November although N Scotland probably above normal

Sunshine. Below average, November near average

Pressure. above normal overall but December below.



Follow link to original forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in Sept 2021 October November December


Original Summary - Summary - 190921 -
The main signal is for above normal temperatures for the season perhaps with reduced anomalies across the south of the UK and elsewhere in December. Rainfall very mixed signals almost as many drier than average as wetter than average. Potential for wetter than average highest in the N and W and lowest in the S and E which represent a typical weather type. There is a suggestion of periods of dry weather - and periods of wet weather but no agreement as to which month this applies - may suggest some extremes. Sea level pressure may be above average for the season.


Comment:
Temperature: DWD KMA got the sequence fairly well. Most got the above average for season, less good were Canada, Brazil, France, Washington WMO data set.
Precipitation: The three month sequence with dry November was best captured by: NASA DWD BoM with the overall signal of below average best captured by: Canada DWD Brazil Russia and to some extent UKMO


Scoring will attempt to state good, fair, poor or no signal.
1. Russia (WMO): Temp good . PPN good .
2. USA - CFS2 : Temp Good . PPN poor/fair .
3. UKMO Contingency: Temp Good. PPN fair.
4. UKMO : Temp Good. PPN good . PMSL good
5. USA - IRI : Temp good. PPN poor .
6. KMA APCC : Temp good . PPN no signal.
7. JMA : Temp good . PPN poor . PMSL good
8. NMME : Temp good . PPN poor/fair.
9. WMO multi : Temp good . PPN fair.
10. BCC : Temp good . PPN poor .
11. NASA : Temp fair . PPN fair.
12. Brazil: Temp fair . PPN fair.
13. CanSips : Temp good . PPN fair .
14. IMME : Temp good . PPN no signal.
15. Copernicus Temp good . PPN no signal. PMSL fair
16. CMCC Temp fair . PPN fair . PMSL no signal
17: DWD Temp good . PPN fair . PMSL fair
18. EC Temp good . PPN fair. PMSL fair
19 JMA Temp fair . PPN no signal . PMSL no signal
20 UKMO Temp good. PPN no signal . PMSL fair
21. MF Temp fair . PPN fair . PMSL good
22 NCEP Temp good . PPN poor . PMSL poor
23 ECCC Temp: fair . PPN . PMSL


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