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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, 2020 September October November - compiled 2 December 2020


Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts


CPC/UKMO MONTH TEMP


EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp mean anomaly

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
TN2 TN3 TN7
ECMWF
EC


WMO March 2020 data
WMO combined multi model monthly - model probability OR anomaly.

Probability combined.
200


BOM monthly
200

Canada monthly
200

DWD monthly
200

CPTEC Brazil monthly
200

UKMO monthly
200


Moscow monthly
200

SEOUL monthly
200

Tokyo monthly
200

Toulouse monthly
200

Washington monthly
200

ECMWF monthly low resolution model probability of anomaly from WMO
200



CPC/UKMO MONTH PPN anomalies


EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS PPN rate mean anomaly

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
TN5 TN6 TN8
NASA JMA mean seal level pressure and anomaly


UKMO summary


Review of details looked for in seasonal forecast.
Temperature. above average for season with November strongest for abover normal after normal October

Rainfall. above average for season with November below average except N Ireland and W Scotland. Oct and Dec wet in S and E especially.

Pressure. below average for season, November above average but Oct and Dec below.



Follow link to original forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in September for 2020 October November December


Original Summary - 180920 - Temperature: For the three months overall the main theme is for normal for slightly above normal temperatures. Typically the strongest anomalies are in December with a few models hinting at below normal values in October. Precipitation: Mixed indications with as many indication above as shown below average but some hints that December could be wetter and November perhaps below average at least in the south. Overall near normal or above normal prcipitation seems likely especially in the North.
Comment:
Temperature: was above average fpor seaon and October was relatively cooler/near average but November had the strongest anomalies not December.
Rainfall: Above normal rain was a good indication as was the drier November. Anomalous rainfall in east not really noted.


Scoring will attempt to state good, fair, poor or no signal for the three month season.
Comment:
1. Russia: Temp good . PPN mainly no signal Scotland and N Ireland good .
2. USA - CFS2 : Temp fair . PPN fair . (CFS2 monthly E3 suggested drier Nov)
3. UKMO Contingency: Temp fair . PPN no signal .
4. UKMO : Temp good. PPN poor . PMSL poor
5. USA - IRI : Temp no signal . PPN good .
6. KMA APCC : Temp poor . PPN poor .
7. JMA : Temp good - a little cool . PPN poor . PMSL poor (mean direction good)
8. NMME : Temp good. PPN fair .
9. WMO : Temp fair . PPN poor .
10. BCC : Temp fair . PPN poor .
11. NASA - Temp good . PPN poor .
12. Brazil: Temp good . PPN good . PMSL good
13. CanSips : Temp fair . PPN fair .
14. IMME : Temp good. PPN poor .
15. Copernicus Temp fair. PPN poor . PMSL poor
16. CMCC Temp fair. PPN poor . PMSL poor
17: DWD Temp fair. PPN poor . PMSL poor
18. EC Temp fair. PPN poor . PMSL poor
19 UKMO Temp fair. PPN poor . PMSL poor
20. MF Temp fair. PPN poor . PMSL poor
21 NCEP Temp good. PPN fair . PMSL fair
22 JAMSTEC: no data
23 ECMWF (monthly) Temp: fair . PPN good


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