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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, October November December 2019 - compiled 3 January 2020


Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts


CPC/UKMO MONTH TEMP


EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp mean anomaly

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
TN2 TN3 TN7

ECMWF
EC

WMO
WMO

UKMO
UKMO


CPC/UKMO MONTH PPN anomalies


EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS PPN rate mean anomaly

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
TN5 TN6 TN8

JMA mean seal level pressure and anomaly


UKMO summary


Review of details looked for in seasonal forecast.
Temperature. Overall near normal (-0.1 UK anomaly) with England slightly above (+0.2) for the season and Scotland slightly below (-0.9C anomaly)- Oct and Nov normal or below and then a much milder December.

Rainfall. Wetter than normal for the season in England (128%) and Wales (110%), N Ireland near normal and Scotland below (90%). Details more varied see graphics. Overall trend to wetter in south after drier October

Pressure. Below normal each month but especially November and December



Follow link to original forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in September for 2019 October November December



Original Summary - Summary - 180919 -
TEMPERATURE: The main theme is for above normal temepratures for the three months and most models have each month above normal in at least parts of UK and Eire. Hints at December having the largest anomalies. Only a few models suggest normal temperatures and only Cansips and Moscow have colder than average values for some months.
PRECIPITATION: For the three months above normal values are most likely although normal values are more likely in the N and NE. There is a chance that October could be less wet in the south or east and that December could be the wettest compared to average. There is no consensus as to which month could be drier - see graphics.

Scoring will attempt to state good, fair, poor or no signal.

Comment:
Temperature:
Most models were overly warm but there was a good indication of a much milder December although the colder November and to some extent October was not well forecast. Models that got colder values did not get the upturn in December. NASA got the trend reasonably well.
Rainfall:
Month to month detail was poor although some indication in NMME data was good. For the season WMO gave a hint at wetter in SW UK and Eire.

1. Russia: Temp no signal. PPN good - but wrong month to month got Drier December and Wetter October.
2. USA - CFS2 : Temp fair. PPN poor.
3. UKMO Contingency: Temp fair. PPN fair.
4. UKMO : Temp fair. PPN fair. PMSL good
5. USA - IRI : Temp no signal. PPN good .
6. KMA APCC :
7. JMA : Temp fair. PPN fair. PMSL good
8. NMME : Temp fair. PPN good.
9. IMME - Temp fair. PPN fair.
10. BCC - Temp fair. PPN good.
11. NASA - Temp fair. PPN fair.
12. Brazil: Temp fair. PPN fair. PMSL good
13. CanSips : Temp fair. PPN poor.
14. SAWS: : Temp fair. PPN fair.
15. Copernicus Temp fair. PPN fair. PMSL poor
16. EC Temp fair. PPN fair. PMSL fair.
17. MF Temp poor. PPN fair. PMSL poor
18. JAMSTEC:
19: KMA: Temp fair. PPN fair.
20: ECMWF (monthly) Temp: fair. PPN fair.
21: CMCC Temp fair. PPN fair. PMSL fair.
22: DWD Temp good. PPN good. PMSL fair.


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