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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, October November December 2018 - compiled 3 January 2019

Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts


UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp mean anomaly

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.

ECMWF (note ppn reversed colour scheme)


UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS PPN rate mean anomaly

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.

JMA mean seal level pressure and anomaly

UKMO summary

Review of details looked for in seasonal forecast.
Temperature. started near average then above normal to well above normal for December - season above normal

Rainfall. Complex pattern mostly below normal but Wales, SW England and NW England above. A signal for drier than wetter will be looked for.

Pressure. Slightly above vut near normal in West.

Follow link to original forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in September for 2018 October November December

Original Summary - "160918 - Indication from nearly all models for above normal temperatures and perhaps well above (1C anomaly) for the season with chance that places could see over one deg Celsius positive anomalies later in the period. Precipitation for the three month season as a whole probably above normal but parts of the UK especially the S may start off in October with below normal rainfall and some models suggest the NW may end the period drier with the wetter weather in the S."
030119 - result - very good temperature good for rainfall.

Scoring will attempt to state good, fair, poor or no signal.
No signal for any centre for less above normnal/near normal in July after warmer May/June.
1. Russia: Temp poor PPN fair
2. USA - CFS2 : Temp good PPN good
3. UKMO Contingency: Temp good season but less good for October PPN fair
4. UKMO : Temp good PPN fair PMSL fair
5. USA - IRI : Temp No signal PPN fair
6. KMA APCC : Temp Good PPN No signal
7. JMA : Temp poor PPN poor PMSL poor
8. NMME : Temp fair PPN fair (got the wetter Dec)
9. IMME - Temp good PPN good
10. BCC - Temp good PPN fair
11. NASA - Temp poor PPN poor
12. Brazil: Temp poor PPN fair
13. CanSips : Temp poor PPN poor
14. SAWS: : NIL
15. Copernicus Temp good PPN No signal PMSL No signal
16. EC : Temp No signal PPN No signal PMSL No signal
17. MF : Temp No signal PPN No signal PMSL fair
19: KMA: Temp good PPN no signal
20: ECMWF (monthly): Temp poor overly cool PPN fair overly dry
21: CMCC : NIL
22: DWD : NIL

Most output had the idea of normal trending above normal temperatures perhaps. Rainfall more variable across the UK and much less well signalled so difficult to pick the good from the bad.
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