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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, October November December 2017 - compiled 5 January 2018
Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts
CPC/UKMO MONTH TEMP and PPN anomalies
Summary - Temperature for season above average largely due to above normal October wih near normal Nov and Dec. Rainfall below average for season but mixed monthly picture with Dec perhaps a litttle wetter. NW wetter in Oct and Nov with SE Drier but some reversal in December. Despite October being milder it was also cloudier with season as a whole near or slightly above noral sunshine. Pressure mostly above normal perhaps less so in the far N.
Correct forecast for season will be above normal temps, below normal rain and above normal pressure. Montly will look for strong sigbal for above normal in September and for the rainfall differences.
Follow link to
original forecast summary for detail of forecast.
DATA available in September for 2017 October November December 2017
Original Summary - was good including some idea of rain distribution but not for temp in October - better than raw models 190917- Temperature is most likely to be above normal for the season as a whole although October may be near normal in parts of the West or South with a minority hinting at slightly below normal values in the W in October. Rainfall is most likely to be above normal in the NW and hints at below normal in the S/SE. Elsewhere near normal. Developing La Nina stats may well fit with this rain pattern. October is perhaos more likely to be below in the S than other months. .
Scoring will attempt to state good, fair, poor or no signal.
1. Russia: Temp fair . PPN fair (rain in NW) .
2. USA - CFS2 : Temp Good but monthly no good . PPN fair did not get below but some idea of distribution .
3. UKMO Contingency: Temp good . PPN poor . (was late and not in summary)
4. UKMO : Temp good . PPN poor . PMSL poor
5. USA - IRI : Temp poor . PPN poor .
6. KMA APCC : Temp fair . PPN poor/no signal .
7. JMA : Temp good . PPN fair . PMSL good
8. NMME : Temp good (too warm) . PPN fair (got wetter in NW and drier in S but get N wetter in Dec not correct but hinted at some drier areas and wetter SE which was good.
9. IMME - Temp good . PPN fair .
10. BCC - Temp good . PPN fair (one of the few to suggest below in Oct and Nov but Dec incorrect) .
11. NASA - Temp good but not monthly . PPN fair .
12. Brazil: Temp fair . PPN fair . PMSL poor
13. CanSips : Temp good . PPN fair/poor .
14. SAWS: : Temp no signal . PPN no signal / missing.
15. Copernicus Temp fair . PPN fair . PMSL poor
16. EC Temp good Temp fair . PPN fair . PMSL poor
17. MF Temp good . PPN fair . PMSL good
18. JAMTEC: Temp fair . PPN fair . (not in origical forecast)
19: KMA: Temp fair too warm . PPN fair but got some idea of witch from drier to wetter in S for Dec. . PMSL fair (to low but distribution ok)
CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP
NMME MAX and MIN n/a
NMME PPN rate:
NMME TEMP PROBS:
UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
DATA available in August for 2017 October November December 2017
Temperature Ok in most but not trend month to month. BCC China good with rain.
DATA available in July for 2017 October November December 2017
CFS got some idea of month rain changes. Most models got above normal temps for season but were not good with rain.
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