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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, October November December 2016 - compiled 4th Jan 2017


Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts

UKMO


CPC MONTH and THREE MONTH (Graphics added if available) TEMP and PPN anomalies




UKMO data suggest the three months had above average temperature (November was cooler than average) and rainfall was below average (1981-2010) despite the average for England (not Scotand Wales or N Ireland) being above normal in November. Pressure according to JMA was also above average.



Follow link to original forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in September 2016 for October November December 2016


Comment on the summary: Season temperature forecast was correct. Rainfall was not correct although dry periods where indicated as was the uncertainty.

1. Russia: Temps not warm enough. Rainfall indication of NW being below normal may have helped but overall no signal elsewhere.
2. USA - CFS2 : weak indication of above normal temps overall, OK with near normal for Oct and Nov. Some hints at drier than normal but locations incorrect.
3. UKMO Contingency: Good indication of risk of colder after Octobler but cooling trnd did not continue. Pressure indication OK but inderence of colder types not correct. Rain poor.
4. UKMO : Poor pressure forecast, Temps just about Ok rain poor.
5. USA - IRI : Temps OK rain no help.
6. KMA APCC : temps OK rain not a help.
7. JMA : Good pressure signal. Temperature forecast OK but did not get colder November. Some good rainfall indication but not the wetter Nov in England.
8. NMME : Above normal temprature OK for season but did not get colder Nov. Rain poor.
9. IMME : Hint that November was lessmild in the overal above normal pattern. PPN no help.
12. BCC : Monthly detail not correct but above normal temos indicated. Some hints at below normal rain but not a strong signal.
11. Brazil : not a help.
12. NASA : Incorrect cooling trend but above normal for season OK. SOme indication for below normal rain but not the wetter November in England.
13. CanSips : Temps Ok but not in November. Rain some indication of drier areas but not the correct ones.



CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP N/a

CFS2 TEMP



CFS2 PPN




NMME MAX and MIN n/a

NMME TEMP:





NMME PPN rate:




NMME TEMP PROBS:



NMME PPN:




UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly





DATA available in August 2016 for October November December 2016

Most got the above normal temps but not the monthly variation. BCC China good with precipitation but other output not especially good.


DATA available in July 2016 for October November December 2016

Summary BCC China again spooted the drier types and UKMO forecast pressure OK but not the rain. Otherwise no model stood out.


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