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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, October November DEcember 2015 - compiled 4 Jan 2016


Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts

CPC MONTH and if available the THREE MONTH TEMP and PPN anomalies



JMA PMSL anomalies


CPC overall above normal temperartures starting near normal and ending well above especially for England. Rainfall mostly above normal after a below normal start - with areas of record rainfall acros Eire, N Wales, N England and S Scotland resulting in flooding.

UKMO data suggests: awaited
TEMP:
PPN:

Follow link to orignal forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in SEPT 2015 for Oct Nov Dec 2015


IRI EL Nino statistical relationship suggested highest risk for above normal rainfall was in the SW and W of England and Wales. In the event the risk area was in fact shifted north a little.
Link below to graphics.
IRI climate impacts.

Original Summary - overall signal for above normal temps and rain was corrext with the S and E shown as most likely and the N and W the least likely although even here there were above normal values. Above normal rain was also indicated.
1. Russia: Temps on the cool side. Rainfall OK fair sigbal for above normal.
2. USA - CFS2 : trend to above or well above normal temps shown in several outputs. PPN also indicated correct trend.
3. UKMO Contingency: Signal for above normal tempatures was OK with some indication for well above though could have been strong given the very mild December. Implied signal for wet Nov and Dec correct and above normal indicated.
4. UKMO : Good signal overall with above normal temps and the enhanced probs for well above normal rain.
5. USA - IRI : above normal temp OK no help with rainfall.
6. KMA APCC : Temp poor but rainfall fairly good.
7. JMA : temp poor rainfall some signal for wetter but not strong signal.
8. NMME : temps ok for above but cooler detain in W incorrect. Rain good signal but higher probs could have ben further north
9. IMME - reasonable signal but lacked month to month detail
10. BCC - temps on the cool side but ppn correct indication
11. NASA - temps on the cool side. PPN some indication of above normal but slightly off location shifted south.
12. Brazil: temp poor rainfall some indication of above normal

CFS2 mean TEMP



CFS2 mean PPN


NMME MAX and MIN



NMME TEMP: mean data


NMME TEMP probs


NMME PPN:


NMME PPN: Probs


Ploted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp mean anomaly 080815 data from NOAA NCEP CPC server

Ploted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS means Precip anomaly (ignore scale) 080815 data from NOAA NCEP CPC server


DATA available in August 2015 for Oct Nov Dec 2015


Summary: Very good broad indication for above normal temp rain and storms. NASA a bir cold and IRI dry area not good.


DATA available in July 2015 for Oct Nov Dec 2015

Summary: UK and CFS offering the best indication





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