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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, Oct Nov Dec 2014 - compiled 5 Jan 2015 - 3 month CPC summary added 010315





Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts





UK data shows UK above average temperatures overall and slightly higher values for DEC than shown by CPC. PPN Wales marginally below normal elsewhere above.

Follow links above to orignal forecast summary for more detail of forecast.

DATA available in Sep 2014 for OND 2014


The comment summary was good.
1. Russia: no data
2. USA - CFS2 : Temps OK normal in output = slightly above normal. PPN OK did not get drier in S in DEC
3. UKMO : Temp and PPN OK
4. UKMO Contingency - temp good PPN OK
5. USA - IRI : Temp OK PPN not good.
6. KMA APCC : temp OK rain not so good.
7. JMA temp and ppn OK but did not get drier in S in DEC
8. NMME Temp and PPN OK
9. IMME - Temp and PPN OK
10. BCC - poor (cool and drier indication)
11. Brazil - temp OK PPN not so good.
12. NASA - Above normal good. PPN good suggested drier in S in December

CFS2 MAX MIN




NMME PPN:





DATA available in AUG 2014 for OND 2014


Correct signal for above normal temps and PPN near or above normal overall. Month to month detail not good.
DATA available in JULY 2014 for OND 2014

Correct signal for above normal temps and PPN near or above normal. Month to month detail not good.


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