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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, October November December 2013 - compiled 04 Feb 2014



Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts





Overall above normal temperatures and rainfall but off set by November which was colder and a bit drier than normal
The CPC rain anomalies may be suspect in parts of UK and Eire. See also Met IE Monthly Data


Follow links above to orignal forecast summary for more detail of forecast.

DATA available in September 2013 for October November December 2013


The summary gave a reasonable overview - 200913 - most likely normal or above normal temperatures with normal rainfall but a risk of above normal in places not just in the west

1. Russia: good indication of above normal temps and rain.
2. USA - FSU : good signal for 0.5 to 1C positive anomaly but PPN forecast incorrect.
3. USA - CFS2 : temp forecast of normal a little on cool side and no indication of colder Nov. PPN some good indications for above normal.
4. UKMO : PMSL not so good. Temperature signal good including enhanced prbs for well above normal. PPN signal
4a. Contingency a little cool although enhanced prob for well above normal ppn shown. PPN signal mostly good.
5. USA - NASA : some interesting detail for December but overall a little lacking in temp ad ppn forecast
6. USA - IRI : above normal temps correct. PPN no signal.
7. KMA not available APCC - perhaps slightly cool but above normal forecast OK as was hint at wetter DEC but overall PPN only fair.
8. JMA - poor forecast with above normal PMSL and below normal rain and temps.
9. NMME - fair for England and Wales temperarures elsewhere not so good. PPN poor.
9a. IMME no signal.


DATA available in Augst 2013 for October November December 2013


HMC Russia quite good.
CFS2 hinted at DEC being wetter than earlier months but temperature signal not so good.
UKMO above normal temps quite good but rain distribution lacking.
NASA good suggestion for wetter
FSU correct at suggesting enhanced zonality as did CFS

DATA available in July 2013 for October November December 2013

CFS2 fairly good ppn
FSU and NASA not so good
UKMO no good except hinted at enhanced probs for well above normal PPN.


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