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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, 2020 Nov Dec 2021 Jan - compiled 3 February 2021
Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts
CPC/UKMO MONTH TEMP
EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp mean anomaly
CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
ECMWF
WMO March 2020 data
WMO combined multi model monthly - model probability OR anomaly.
Probability combined.
BOM monthly
Canada monthly
DWD monthly
UKMO monthly
Moscow monthly
SEOUL monthly
Tokyo monthly
Toulouse monthly
Washington monthly
ECMWF monthly low resolution model probability of anomaly from WMO
CPC/UKMO MONTH PPN anomalies
EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS PPN rate mean anomaly
CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
JMA mean seal level pressure and anomaly
UKMO summary
Review of details looked for in seasonal forecast.
Temperature. Three month season slightly above normal except Norther Ireland slightly below. Nov and DEC above normal but January as much below normal as November was above. Look for colder Janauary following milder Nov and Dec in most areas
Rainfall. Scotland marginally below elsewhere above normal for the season. Look for November drier and then wetter.
Pressure. Overall below normal (WSW) but above normal in November, well below in December and slightly below in January except in NW Scotland wher slightly above.
Follow link to
original forecast summary for detail of forecast.
DATA available in October for 2020 October November December
Summary - 18 Oct 2020 -
Temperature: The three month mean is likely to be above the 30 year average (1981-2010). Each month most likely to be normal or above.
A few models suggest near normal in November and perhaps December but only Moscow and Toulouse data suggest colder than average in places for November and only Toulouse in December though even these models end up with the three months being abover average.
Precipitation: Near normal precipitation is likely for much of the UK and Eire but with the N and W above average and the S and perhaps the SE below average.
A fairly consistent indication for parts of the S or SW of the UK and S parts of Eire to have below average precipitation and the North perhaps NW or W to have above average values but elsewhere near normal seems most likely. There is a hint that January could have a stronger wetter / less drier anomaly than the other months.
Pressure may be above average more especially across the south.
Comment: 020221.
Temperature: for the three month period overall meam was slightly above average BUT no signal for the colder January.
Rainfall: Some idea of a drier period which turned out to be early in the period but understated the wetter outcome.
Pressure three month average below normal.
Scoring will attempt to state good, fair, poor or no signal and are for the THREE month average.
Scoring based on: Temperature normal or above. Rainfall above normal. Pressure below normal.
Comment: DWD and Tokyo for the correct temperature sequence milder start colder end. Washington, UKMO, DWD and Canada had the rainfal trend OK but were not "wet" enough with near normal suggested rather than above normal.
1. Russia: Temp no signal. PPN fair.
2. USA - CFS2 : Temp good . PPN good .
3. UKMO Contingency: Temp good . PPN poor .
4. UKMO : Temp fair. PPN fair . PMSL poor
5. USA - IRI : Temp no signal . PPN poor .
6. KMA APCC : Temp good . PPN no signal .
7. JMA : Temp good . PPN poor . PMSL poor
8. NMME : Temp good . PPN poor .
9. WMO : Temp good . PPN poor .
10. BCC : Temp good . PPN poor .
11. NASA - Temp fair . PPN poor .
12. Brazil: Temp good . PPN poor .
13. CanSips : Temp good . PPN fair .
14. IMME : Temp good. PPN fair .
15. Copernicus Temp fair . PPN poor. PMSL poor
16. CMCC Temp fair . PPN poor. . PMSL poor
17: DWD Temp fair . PPN poor. . PMSL poor
18. EC Temp fair . PPN poor. . PMSL poor
19 UKMO Temp fair . PPN poor. PMSL poor
20. MF Temp poor . PPN poor . PMSL poor
21 NCEP Temp fair. PPN poor . PMSL poor
22 JMA: Temp fair. PPN poor . PMSL poor
23 ECMWF (monthly) Temp: poor. PPN poor .
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