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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, 2019 November December 2020 January - compiled 4 February 2020


Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts


CPC/UKMO MONTH TEMP


EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp mean anomaly

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
TN3 TN7 TN2

ECMWF
EC

WMO
WMO

UKMO
UKMO


CPC/UKMO MONTH PPN anomalies


EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS PPN rate mean anomaly

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
TN6 TN8 TN5

NASA JMA mean seal level pressure and anomaly


UKMO summary


Review of details looked for in seasonal forecast.
Temperature for the season was above average although November was the opdd month out being colder than average.

Rainfall. W Scotland and the NW of England was unusually dry in November but W Scotland made up for it subsequently. Eastern area of UK were unusally wet in November but this was offset by drier conditions later. In the south most areas saw above average rain for the three months. Wales and the north Midlands looked closer to averge after a wet start and a drier finish to the three month period.

Pressure. Three month mean was below the long term average with only January showing higher oresure across the south.



Follow link to original forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in Octoner for 2019 November December 2020 January



Summary - 161019 -
Temperature: Above normal most likely. Most models suggest above normal temperatures for the three months (and mostly each month) with only BoM and Moscow suggesting colder and even these have some N or SE parts of UK near normal. There is a hint that the S and E has the higher probs for above normal and the N and W nearer normal.
Precipitation: Fairly good agreemrnt for above normal, especially in West (could be NW and/or SW and incluides Eire) but perhaps normal in East. Month to month detail as usual is more varied but only a minority pick out any month as being drier than average although a number of near normal months are suggested and differences occur as to which could be the wettest month.
Pressure: signal for below average pressure across the north and average or above in or to the south, hence windier than average.

Scoring will attempt to state good, fair, poor or no signal.

Comment:
Temperature: Good signal for above average temperature for the season BUT very few models suggested colder November although NASA had a good trend and NMME had lower anomalies for November increasing in subsequent months.

Rainfall: Generally poor indication for drier areas month to month. Overall signal for a wetter than average three months was OK but detail poor.


1. Russia: Temp poor . PPN poor . br> 2. USA - CFS2 : Temp fair . PPN fair .
3. UKMO Contingency: Temp good . PPN good .
4. UKMO : Temp fair . PPN fair . PMSL fair
5. USA - IRI : Temp no signal . PPN fair .
6. KMA APCC : Temp fair . PPN fair .
7. JMA : Temp fair . PPN fair . PMSL fair
8. NMME : Temp fair . PPN fair .
9.
10. BCC - Temp fair . PPN poor.
11. NASA - Temp fair . PPN fair .
12. Brazil: Temp fair . PPN fair .
13. CanSips : Temp fair. PPN fair .
14.
15. Copernicus Temp good . PPN good . PMSL good
16. EC Temp good . PPN fair . PMSL fair
17. MF Temp good . PPN fair. PMSL fair
18. JAMSTEC:
19: KMA:
20: ECMWF (monthly) Temp: fair. PPN fair
21: CMCC Temp good . PPN fair . PMSL fair
22: DWD Temp poor . PPN fair . PMSL fair
23 WMO Temp good . PPN fair



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