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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, October November December 2018 - compiled 3 January 2019


Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts


CPC/UKMO MONTH TEMP


UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp mean anomaly

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
TN2 TN3 TN7

ECMWF (note ppn reversed colour scheme)
EC

CPC/UKMO MONTH PPN anomalies


UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS PPN rate mean anomaly

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
TN5 TN6 TN8

JMA mean seal level pressure and anomaly


UKMO summary


Review of details looked for in seasonal forecast.
Temperature. Mostly above normal for season but neaer normal in Eire and West Scotland. Looking for signal of change to less mild/cold types in January.

Rainfall. Looking for a drier signal for January and parts of the south being wetter in November and more widely in December

Pressure. Traen from low to high, average slightly above normal mean SW flow



Follow link to original forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in October for 2018 November December and 2019 January


Original Summary - 171018 - consensus is for above normal temperature for the season with some variation hinting at nearer normal values in the north. Main indication for above normal rainfall especially in the N and W there are hints at nearer normal in parts of far NE and S/SE where some months may have below normal rain. (The ECMWF monthly data has a different rainfall patterns with stronger drier signal in the north.) Possible enhanced jet towards UK in November but more especially in December as shown by CFS2 200hPa. Score - 060219 - Mostly good with temperature but no indication of near normal January. Good signal for more unsettled types (wetter) in December due to enhanced jet.
Scoring will attempt to state good, fair, poor or no signal.
Most models got December being milder. EC looks a little cool but was good with trend and got the near normal Jan following milder December. EC ppn not so good for Novemer and January. CFS and NNME to strong PPN anomalies hinting at wetter December and less so in January.
1. Russia: Temp Fair (good distribution a little cool), . PPN no signal .
2. USA - CFS2 : Temp fair (a little warm) . PPN fair .
3. UKMO Contingency: Temp good . PPN good .
4. UKMO : Temp good. PPN fair . PMSL fair .
5. USA - IRI : Temp no signal . PPN maily no signal but good for wetter area .
6. KMA APCC : Temp poor . PPN no signal .
7. JMA : Temp fair . PPN poor . PMSL poor
8. NMME : Temp fair . PPN fair.
9. IMME - Temp fair . PPN fair .
10. BCC - Temp fair . PPN fair .
11. NASA - Temp poor . PPN poor .
12. Brazil: Temp poor . PPN poor . PMSL poor
13. CanSips : Temp fair . PPN fair .
14. SAWS: no data .
15. Copernicus Temp poor . PPN poor . PMSL poor
16. EC Temp Temp no signal . PPN no signal . PMSL poor
17. MF Temp poor. PPN poor. PMSL poor
18. JAMSTEC: no data .
19: KMA: Temp poor . PPN poor . PMSL poor
20: ECMWF (monthly) Temp: poor PPN: poor
21: CMCC no data
22: DWD no data


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