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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, November December 2017 January 2018 - compiled 3 February 2018
Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts
CPC/UKMO MONTH TEMP and PPN anomalies
Summary - Temperatures above normal in England and Wales due to January. Scotland below normal January and November. Rainfall mixed signals see below for scoring points.
Scoring: A correct forecast temperature for the season will be the North (Scotland being colder) and the S milder. Monthly will need to point to milder January in S and colder in N with near normal mostly other months except Scotland also colder in November. Most temperatures were in the +/- 1C range so near normal scored as good but only fair if no mention of colder in N. Rainfall Wales and N Ireland above normal parts of NE England and E Scotland below - season overall near normal. Locking for wetter SE England in December and N Ireland W Scotland and some other western areas in January.
Follow link to
original forecast summary for detail of forecast.
DATA available in October for November December 2017 Januiary 2018
Original Summary - "161017 - Strong signal for above normal temeratures for the season but with the first half being nearer normal and the latter half possibly well above normal although this may be delayed until January. Precipitation mostly normal or above only a few indication of below normal, mainly in first half of season." Temperature was good for England and Wales but poor for Scotland, rainfall fair.
Scoring will attempt to state good, fair, poor or no signal.
1. Russia: Temp fair . PPN poor .
2. USA - CFS2 : Temp fair. PPN good . (graphics overly warm and wet)
3. UKMO Contingency: Temp good. PPN fair .
4. UKMO : Temp fair. PPN good . PMSL poor .
5. USA - IRI : Temp fair . PPN good .
6. KMA APCC : Temp fair. PPN poor .
7. JMA : Temp fair. PPN good . PMSL poor some idea of trend.
8. NMME : Temp fair . PPN poor. (graphics too warm and too wet but got drier in S first month)
9. IMME - Temp fair . PPN good.
10. BCC - Temp fair . PPN fair .
11. NASA - Temp good. PPN poor .
12. Brazil: Temp poor. PPN poor . PMSL poor
13. CanSips : Temp fair. PPN poor.
14. SAWS: : Temp fair. PPN fair .
15. Copernicus Temp fair. PPN poor . PMSL no signal
16. EC Temp fair. PPN good . PMSL good
17. MF Temp fair. PPN poor. PMSL good
18. JAMTEC: no data.
19: KMA: Temp fair . PPN fair . PMSL
Graphics corrected 4 March 2018
CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP
NMME MAX and MIN
NMME PPN rate:
NMME TEMP PROBS:
UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
DATA available in September for 2017 November December 2017 January 2018
No clear cut better model similar above forecasts and variable rain.
DATA available in Augustfor 2017 November December 2017 January 2018
CFS and Camsips got the trend to milder inn S but not the colder in N. Rainfall no special insights.
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