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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, November December 2016 January 2017 - compiled 4th Jan 2017


Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts

UKMO


CPC MONTH (3 month not available) TEMP and PPN anomalies







UKMO data suggests that the three months had above average temmperature and sunshine but below average rainfall when compared to the 1981 to 2010 period. November though was cooler than average and in England so was January but compensated by a milder December. Pressure according to JMA was above average for each month.



Follow link to original forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in October 2016 for 2016 November December 2017 January


Comment on the summary: Temperature for the season was correct in that it was above normal overall although the biggest anomaly was in the north not the south as stated. Rainfall was described as "problematic" but indicated near normal for most and above in parts of NW and SW which was not correct with most areas being below normal apart from England in November.

1. Russia: OJ with temps although location of stronger anomalies less good. Rainfall no indication.
2. USA - CFS2 : Good temperature signal also on max/mins implied Dec was the milder of the months. Precipitation did not indicate below normal, did suggest normal rather than above as main signal. Graphics hinted at NW being wetter Nov and Jan which was not correct.
3. UKMO Contingency: Correct temperature for November but not for season. Good signal for drier season. Pressure higher over and S rather than N and W of UK
4. UKMO : Above normal temp OK. Rainfall signal not so good. Pressure did not indicate above normal.
5. USA - IRI : above normal temp OK. Rainfall no signal.
6. KMA APCC : Temp. Season OK monthly not good. Rainfall no signal.
7. JMA : TEmp OK montly not correct. PPN some hints of below but overall not good. PMSL not correct indicated below normal.
8. NMME : Temp season OK but did not get colder November and was misleading for November. SOme indication of drier tyoes for S and E but November rain was misplaced? or incorrect.
9. IMME : Temp season OK montly not correct. Rainfall indicated normal but was below normal
10. BCC : Good overall but did not get the colder November. Precipitation was good with drier areas and monthly variation***best rainfall
11. Brazil : Temp OK Rainfall not so good. PMSL not so good.
12. NASA : Temps OK but month by month not good. Rainfall no so good though some hints at below normal in December in S. Rainfall also some helpfull indications but overall not correct.
13. CanSips : Showed some variation in temps whice were OK.
14. SAWS: Temps OK with some indication of distribution but not the colder November. PPN some indication of drier in S in December so overall fairly reasonable.


CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP N/a





CFS2 TEMP



CFS2 PPN




NMME MAX and MIN n/a






NMME TEMP:





NMME PPN rate:




NMME TEMP PROBS:



NMME PPN:




UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly





DATA available in September 2016 for 2016 November December 2017 January
No strong contender for a better output most month to minth detail missleading. BCC China though was OK with precipitation.



DATA available in August 2016 for 2016 November December 2017 January
Cansips hinted at tyhe colder November but above normal for season. CFS also had some runs with indication of milder December compared to November anomalies. BCC had some reasonable indications about the rainfall otherwise most output over stated the rainfall anomaly.



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