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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, November December 2015 January 2016 - compiled 8 Feb 2016


Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts

CPC MONTH and if available the THREE MONTH TEMP and PPN anomalies



JMA PMSL anomalies


CPC overall

UKMO data suggests:
TEMP: Similar to CPC
PPN: Mostly similar but November has lower rain anomaly than shown by CPC in SE of England. Also the local dry spot looks unrelaible in CPC just W of London for Nov and Dec.

Follow link to orignal forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in Oct 2015 for Nov Dec 2015 Jan 2016


IRI EL Nino statistical relationship underplated the above normal rain in E Scotland and NE England but did indicate above normal rain in western areas.
IRI climate impacts.

IRI probs slightly under estimated the heavy rain across UK and Eire, possibly due to the El Nino being very strong. Hints at drier than elsewhere for the SE / E of Englnd were fairly good.

Original Summary - The idea for above normal temps and rain was indicated along with the nearer normal values for the N - mainly N of Scotland.
1. Russia: Temp good except for SW England to cool. PPN good.
2. USA - CFS2 : Good signal with some correct monthly and regional detail. **best**
3. UKMO Contingency: ABove normal temp and rain indicated - hints at colder spell in Jan OK but did not last.
4. UKMO : Pressure not good. Temps fair rain good indication.
5. USA - IRI : not especially helpful - fair indication
6. KMA APCC : Temp trend to colder not correct but overall signal for above normal temp and rain Ok.
7. JMA : Not strong enough indication for above normal temp and rain but some idea about N/S spread. PMSL good.
8. NMME : TEmp mostly OK perhaps a little cool in the N compared to reality PPN OK area of qwll above normal was more widespread but hinted at less wet in N ok.
9. IMME - RAin good temp OK NW/SE split.
10. BCC - good signal
11. NASA - good for the S and fair for the N PPN and temps.
12. Brazil: KUO better than RAS. Temp not so good PPN some indication for above normal in S and SW. PMSL good.
13. SAWS: good indication

CFS2 mean TEMP



CFS2 mean PPN


NMME MAX and MIN



NMME TEMP: mean data


NMME TEMP probs


NMME PPN:


NMME PPN: Probs


Ploted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp mean anomaly 080815 data from NOAA NCEP CPC server

Ploted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS means Precip anomaly (ignore scale) 080815 data from NOAA NCEP CPC server


DATA available in Sept 2015 for Nov Dec 2015 Jan 2016


Summary: Mostly good guides except NASA and KMA. (NMME/IMME not included)


DATA available in August 2015 for Nov Dec 2015 Jan 2016

Summary: Best UKMO and CFS2 which were quite good. Not so good NASA, IRI and BCC.(NMME/IMME not included)





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