Back to current Forecast issue
Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, Nov Dec 2014 Jan 2015 - compiled 7 Feb 2015
Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts
CPC suggest near or slightly above normal temperature although parts of W Eire may be slightly below normal.
UKMO graphical data not yet available will be added later. Overall Temp above normal except N Ireland less so/cooler later in period. Mixed signal near normal or slightly above normal.
Follow links above to orignal forecast summary for more detail of forecast.
DATA available in October 2014 for Nov Dec 2014 Jan 2015
The comment summary was good for season as a whole.
1. Russia: Temp OK PPN fair
2. USA - CFS2 : Season signal OK but month by month output misleading - see DEC PPN as example.
3. UKMO : Season temp and PPn OK.
4. UKMO Contingency - NOV fairly good summary. Season temp and PPn OK
5. USA - IRI :
6. KMA APCC : fair signal but month by month data no so good epecially PPN..
7. JMA good signal but month to month lacked any PPN detail.
8. NMME Fairly good season summary
9. IMME - Fairly good season PPN summary but temp not so good (bit cool).
10. BCC - temps OK ppn not so good
11. Brazil - temps OK ppn fair
12. NASA - Fairly good attempt at month to month Temp detail PPN not so good. Overall temp for season good PPn fair.
DATA available in Sept 2014 for Nov Dec 2014 Jan 2015
Model output fair but BCC not so good with cooler outlook.
DATA available in Aug 2014 for Nov Dec 2014 Jan 2015
Summary: Overall good signal for a normal or milder type with mostly above normal PPN.
Models again month to month detail poor but overall siognal OK except BCC still a bit cool
Mail Mike here