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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, 2021 Apr May June - compiled 3 Aug 2021


Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts


CPC/UKMO MONTH TEMP


EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp mean anomaly

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
TN3 TN7 TN2
ECMWF
EC


WMO March 2020 data
WMO combined multi model monthly - model probability OR anomaly.

Probability combined.
200


BOM monthly
200

Canada monthly
200

DWD monthly
200

CPTEC Brazil monthly
200

UKMO monthly
200


Moscow monthly
200

SEOUL monthly
200

Tokyo monthly
200

Toulouse monthly
200

Washington monthly
200

ECMWF monthly low resolution model probability of anomaly from WMO
200



CPC/UKMO MONTH PPN anomalies


EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS PPN rate mean anomaly

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
TN6 TN8 TN5
NASA JMA mean seal level pressure and anomaly


UKMO summary


Review of details looked for in seasonal forecast.

Temperature. After the cold May June and July above average making the three months above average.

Rainfall. Wales well above and England above average for the three months but N Ireland and most of Scotland below.

Sunshine England near normal/slightly below elsewhere above

Pressure slightly below normal due to May. (June and July mostly above normal).



Follow link to original forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in April for 2021 May June July



Original - Summary - 170421 -
Temperature: The three month average probable above normal, a few models suggest the north rather than the south but the majority favour the south being above normal. Monthly data suggest June nearer normal with May and July more likely above. Rainfall: Fairly good indication for below average rainfall in the first half of the season then trending above average. Overall for the three months most likely below average in S and far N, elsewhere normal. Pressure: near normal perhaps above in the south.

Comment:
Temperature: Three month average good monthly detail not correct.
Rainfall: Generally poor/misleading forecast for monthly although a few models had a drier April. For the three months overall poor.


Scoring will attempt to state good, fair, poor or no signal.
Comment: Moscow got the sequence quite well.
1. Russia (WMO): Temp good . PPN fair (but good for sequence) .
2. USA - CFS2 : Temp good . PPN poor .
3. UKMO Contingency: Temp good . PPN fair .
4. UKMO : Temp good. PPN poor
5. USA - IRI : Temp no signal . PPN poor .
6. KMA APCC : Temp fair . PPN poor.
7. JMA : Temp good . PPN poor . PMSL fair
8. NMME : Temp good . PPN fair .
9. WMO multi : Temp good . PPN poor .
10. BCC : Temp poor . PPN poor .
11. NASA : Temp fair. PPN poor .
12. Brazil: Temp poor . PPN poor .
13. CanSips : Temp fair. PPN poor .
14. IMME : Temp good . PPN fair .
15. Copernicus Temp good . PPN fair . PMSL fair
16. CMCC Temp good . PPN fair . PMSL fair
17: DWD Temp good . PPN fair . PMSL poor
18. EC Temp good . PPN fair . PMSL poor
19 JMA Temp poor. PPN poor . PMSL poor
20 UKMO Temp poor. PPN poor . PMSL poor
21. MF Temp poor . PPN poor. PMSL poor
22 NCEP Temp good . PPN fair . PMSL poor
23 ECMWF (monthly) Temp: poor . PPN poor .



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