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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, 2019 May June July - compiled 11 August 2019


Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts


CPC/UKMO MONTH TEMP



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp mean anomaly

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
TN2 TN3 TN7

ECMWF
EC

WMO
WMO

UKMO
UKMO

CPC/UKMO MONTH PPN anomalies



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS PPN rate mean anomaly

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
TN5 TN6 TN8

JMA mean seal level pressure and anomaly


UKMO summary


Review of details looked for in seasonal forecast.
Temperature. near normal (slightly above) trending above normal especially in July.

Rainfall. N above average Wales and SW England below average but elsewhere in S less clear cut and possibly slightly above

Pressure. N/NW above S/SE below



Follow link to original forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in April for May June July 2019


Original Summary - 190419 - BoM and Russian data show below normal temperatures but these are the exception with the vast majority of models showing above normal temperatures each month and for the three month period. Rainfall is more problematic, most models suggest some drier than average months and possibly drier for the three months taken together. Perhaps the stronger hints are for a drier start then increased rain risk for July some of which may be thundery in the south
Comment: Temperature indication was good as was the indication for becoming wetter although not in any detail. Hints of longer drier periods was good but indications for a wetter June was not good.
Scoring will attempt to state good, fair, poor or no signal.
Comment: Detail for precipitation was generally poor, Moscow and possible Seoul picked out the wetter June but were in the minority and Moscow was to cold.
1. Russia: Temp poor . PPN fair .
2. USA - CFS2 : Temp good . PPN poor .
3. UKMO Contingency: Temp good . PPN poor .
4. UKMO : Temp fair . PPN poor . PMSL fair
5. USA - IRI : Temp good . PPN poor .
6. KMA APCC : Temp good . PPN poor .
7. JMA : Temp good . PPN poor . PMSL poor
8. NMME : Temp good . PPN poor .
9. IMME - Temp good . PPN poor .
10. BCC - Temp good . PPN poor .
11. NASA - Temp good . PPN poor .
12. Brazil: Temp good . PPN poor .
13. CanSips : Temp good . PPN poor .
14. SAWS: : Temp good . PPN poor .
15. Copernicus Temp good . PPN poor . PMSL fair
16. EC Temp good . PPN poor . PMSL poor
17. MF Temp good . PPN poor . PMSL poor
18. JAMSTEC: Temp good . PPN poor .
19: KMA: Temp good . PPN poor . PMSL fair
20: ECMWF (monthly) Temp: good . PPN poor .
21: CMCC Temp good . PPN poor . PMSL poor
22: DWD Temp good . PPN poor . PMSL fair
23: BoM Temp poor . PPN poor .

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