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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, April May June 2018 - compiled 4 August 2018

Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts


Review of details looked for in seasonal forecast.
Temperature above normal with increasingly positive anomalies.
Season above average strong anomalies almost 2 deg C.
Rainfall. Mostly below normal especially June. Some places in July in Teignbridge above normal/near normal rainfall not shown on map. Season below normal parts of NW Scotland may be near normal.
Pressure. Above average except far S nearer normal (low to S).

Follow link to original forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in April for 2018 May June July

Original Summary 170418
Temperature:The main indication is for near normal temeprature, perhaps starting below normal especially across the S/SW of Eire and SW of UK due to cooler than normal sea temperatures. Some models also indicate parts of NE England/SE Scotland at risk from colder that normal May due to colder N Sea temnperatures. Hints at June being above normal. Strongest signal for above normal is in NW Scotland and Midlands England. Rainfall: A mixed signal. Mainly a signal for near normal rainfall for the season but also for the NW to be above normal. For models that provided monthly output the South is perhaps more likely to be drier in June than in July but it is not clear cut. Several models suggest the N and perhaps the far S could see a wetter period especially in May and July.

Result: some idea that temperature would rise fom April anomalies but not generally very good. Rainfall some idea of drier June but not for the overall drier than normal period although indications that the N/NW could be wetter were OK. Score temperature poor rain fair.

Scoring will attempt to state good, fair, poor or no signal.
No signal for any centre for less above normnal/near normal in July after warmer May/June.
1. Russia: Temp No signal . PPN No signal .
2. USA - CFS2 : Temp good . PPN good .
3. UKMO Contingency: Temp good . PPN poor (minority cluster did go well below) .
4. UKMO : Temp good . PPN fair . PMSL fair .
5. USA - IRI : Temp no signal . PPN no signal .
6. KMA APCC : Temp no signal . PPN no signal .
7. JMA : Temp good . PPN good. PMSL good
8. NMME : Temp fair . PPN poor .
9. IMME - Temp good . PPN fair .
10. BCC - Temp fair . PPN fair .
11. NASA - Temp fair . PPN good .
12. Brazil: Temp poor . PPN poor.
13. CanSips : Temp poor. PPN poor .
14. SAWS: : Temp poor . PPN poor .
15. Copernicus Temp poor . PPN poor . PMSL poor
16. EC Temp good Temp poor . PPN poor . PMSL poor
17. MF Temp poor . PPN poor . PMSL poor
18. JAMSTEC: Temp no data . PPN no data.
19: KMA: Temp poor . PPN poor . PMSL poor
20: ECMWF (monthly) Temp: good PPN: fair PMSL: fair

UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.


DATA available in March 2018 for May June July

BCC and CANSIPS gave hints at the drier period and some indication from models for above normal but not the strong anomaly that actually occured.

DATA available in February2018 for May June July

Mostly poor indication perhaps NASA had best indication for warmth and hints at dier.

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