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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, May June July 2017 - compiled 3 August 2017


Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts


CPC/UKMO MONTH TEMP and PPN anomalies








UKMO Temperature: May and June clearly above normal in all parts of UK but July cooler in N and warmer in S/SE elsewhere neaer normal. Overall for season above normal.
PPN: Much more varied signal mostly above or well above normal but parts of Western Isles and W or NW Midlands below normal. May SE wetter elsewhere normal or below normal. June Western Isles and parts of Midlands below normal with central England and S England (but not Cornwall, SW Devon and SE England) near normal otherwise above. July Parts of S Midlands, Central and N Scotyland near normal locally below near Inverness but elsewhere mostly above normal.
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Follow link to original forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in April for 2017 May June July 2017


Comment on the summary: Above normal temperature good but monthly detail poor. Rainfall poor although hints that S might be wetter.

Scoring will attempt to state good, fair, poor or no signal.
No signal for any centre for less above normnal/near normal in July after warmer May/June. 1. Russia: Temp poor or no signal. PPN no signal
2. USA - CFS2 : Temp good. Montly fair. PPN: poor
3. UKMO Contingency: (DELAYED) Temp good PPN good .
4. UKMO : Temp good PPN good but no signal in N.
5. USA - IRI : Temp poor or no signal PPN poor or no signal
6. KMA APCC : Temp good including slightly reduced probs above normal in July PPN no signal
7. JMA : Temp good PPN poor PMSL poor (also SW nor WNW)
8. NMME : Temp Good PPN poor (almost opposite)
9. IMME - Temp good PPN poor
10. BCC - Temp good PPN poor
11. NASA - Temp good PPN poor
12. Brazil: Temp good PPN poor
13. CanSips : Temp good PPN poor
14. SAWS: : NO DATA
15. Copernicus Temp good PPN no signal. PMSL poor
16. EC Temp good PPN poor. PMSL poor
17. MF Temp no signal PPN no signal PMSL no signal
18. JAMTEC: NO DATA
19: KMA: Temp good PPN poor/no signal


CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP N/a





CFS2 TEMP



CFS2 PPN




NMME MAX and MIN n/a






NMME Temp:





NMME PPN rate:




NMME TEMP PROBS:



NMME PPN:




UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly





DATA available in March for 2017 May June July 2017

UKMO PPN was fair to good otherwise poor. Mostly above normal temp indicated by models.


DATA available in Frbruary for 2017 May June July 2017

Again UKMO had fair short at PPN. Otherwise temperatue were OK and ppn poor.


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