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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, May June July 2016 - compiled 5 August 2016 _ GRAPHICS CORRECTED 5 SEPT 2016


Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts

UKMO


CPC MONTH and THREE MONTH (Graphics added when available) TEMP and PPN anomalies





IRI statistic link based on El Nino, above normal rain across the UK in this period which was correct for many areas but the detail may be less clear cut for each region. Overall 3 month rain for UK was above normal. Three month graphical data not available at present but will check if CPC data arrives later in August

IRI climate impacts.


UKMO data suggests for the three months all UK regions had above average rain and above average tmperatures. CPC data above shows month to month variation. In General May was drier in SW and NE UK otherwise near normal, June was wetter and July was wetter across the NW half and drier in SE. Temps above normal in May, above normal except the E (normal) in June and Normal but warmer in E in July (cooler in NW Scotland).
Follow link to orignal forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in April 2016 for May June July 2016


Comment on the summary: Reasonable summary, temps good, indication for July drier in S/E was OK and overall above normal rain. (170416 - Temperature probably near or a little above normal, especially in the east of UK with the W of UK and the W of Eire most at risk from below normal temperatures due to cooler than normal Atlantic Sea Temperature. Rainfall - the weakening El Nino, perhaps still strong enough to include some statistical impacts implying normal or above normal rainfall but below normal in N and W Scotland. Model output is less clear suggesting drier periods for July and perhaps parts of June especially in the S and E. Hence chance of above normal rain probably mostly in the W of UK and over Eire with the E and SE possibly drier than normal.)
1. Russia: temps OK rain no signal.
2. USA - CFS2 : Temps a little cool. Rain not especially good did not get monthly variation to well but got the drier July in S/SE OK.
3. UKMO Contingency: reasonable guide temps and rain
4. UKMO : signal for pressure a little high but more frequent weak weather systems in S was OK. Fair signal for temps but rain less of a help.
5. USA - IRI : temps OK rain no signal
6. KMA APCC : temps OK rain no signal
7. JMA : pressure not so good, temps reasonable hints at warmer in E in July. PPn not good
8. NMME :.temps good and some reasonable hints in PPN output
9. IMME : temps good but ppn not so good
12. BCC : good temp and fairly reasonable rain indication
11. Brazil : PMSL was correct. Temps fair PPN poor.
12. NASA : Temps OK Rain not so good. Month to month not good.
13. CanSips : Good PMSL signal. Temps OK. PPN not so good but got the drier S in July



CFS2 TEMP



CFS2 PPN





NMME TEMP:





NMME PPN rate:




NMME TEMP PROBS:



NMME PPN:




UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly 080216




200hPa height anomalty NMME and CFS2 with mean CFS2 200hPa data 1 deg grib 080216



DATA available in March 2016 for May June July 2016

Main signal for drier in England and Wales during July was indicated by CFS and NASA. Otherwise models muc the same as later output. DATA available in February 2016 for May June July 2016

UKMO misleading, most models poor on detail


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