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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, May June July 2015 - compiled 5 Aug 2015

Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts

CPC MONTH and THREE MONTH (Graphics added when available) TEMP and PPN anomalies

UKMO data suggests: TEMP UK below normal (0.5 to 1C negative anomal 1981-2010 period). Less below normal was E and S of England where anomalies where slightly above normal. It is worth noting that the UK anomaly ref the 1961-1990 period was zero for the 3 month and for England temps were above normal. PPN: Despite and drier June anomalies show above normal rainfall in all UK areas for the 3 months.
Follow link to orignal forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in APRIL 2015 for May Jun Jul 2015

IRI EL Nino statistical relationship suggests above normal perhaps below in NW Scotlande probs for below normal are quite low so this gave a reasonable guide to season overall being above normal. Comment on the summary: Temp near normal perhaps and warmer in E gave idea of distribution and sea temp comment added caution for cooler in W and NW. PPN signal for above normal was correct but not the indication for th far N as less likely to be above normal
1. Russia: Good temp signal less good with PPN
2. USA - CFS2 : poor PPN did not get drier month. Temps fair as not far below normal (within normal range)
3. UKMO Contingency: Good indication for MAY. Season some hints at cooler and wetter.
4. UKMO : some indication with reghards TEMP distribution also PPN but not convincing.
5. USA - IRI : poor - always to high probs for warm. PPN no signal
6. KMA APCC : some skill at temp distribution but ppn poor
7. JMA : temp OK but no distribution signal and ppn poor
8. NMME : Temp distribution OK hint at warmer June. Prob charts for PPN suggested drier June but not sig wetter May/July
9. IMME - poor
10. BCC - poor temp and ppn
11. NASA - hints at temp distribution but overall temp and ppn not good.
12. Brazil: some idea about warmr in E otherwise not good.
CFS2 mean TEMP (MAX MIN not shown)

CFS2 mean PPN


NMME TEMP: mean data




DATA available in MAR 2015 for May Jun Jul 2015

Summary: Some fo the CFS2 runs hinted at drier June in places. UK temp distribution OK but PPN poor.

DATA available in FEB 2015 for May Jun Jul 2015

Summary: BCC a clear winner with a good signal for temp and ppn. Other output not good.

Any questions E Mail Mike

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