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Provisional Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, May June July 2014 - compiled 2 Aug 2014
Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts
UK data shows UK above average temperasture (just over 1C) and slightly near normal rain but with regional variations and many areas seeing drier Jun and July.
Follow links above to orignal forecast summary for more detail of forecast.
DATA available in APRIL 2014 for MJJ 2014
The comment summary - temp forecast hinting at May less likely to be above normal than other months was good as was some indication of above normal rain in SE (see UK MO rain anomaly for July).
1. Russia: temps OK PPN fair
2. USA - FSU : temps OK PPn fair
3. USA - CFS2 : temps on cool side some hints at rainvariation but detail lacking - bit on wet side.
4. UKMO : good above normal temp forecast, ppn forecast also hintged at drier weather which was good except May and also thunderstorms in July (below model resolution)
5. UKMO Contingency - temp forecast correct rain forcast OK. Rain forecast with enhanced risk May being above implied reduced risk for later months was OK.
6. USA - IRI : unusually on the low side for above normal temp probs, rainfall normal fair.
7. APCC : temp a little low PPN some hints at drier months
8. JMA - temps fair but ppn gave some correct trends
9. NMME - no better than other output
10. IMME - no better than other output
11. BCC - Temps Good. PPn OK
12. NASA - temps and ppn OK
13. Brazil - OK temps ppn fair
DATA available in MARCH 2014 for for MJJ 2014
Models OK in not suggesting colder (UK still hints at over cold values in W) PPN some hints at the drier months and variations of wetter SE.
DATA available in FEB 2014 for for MJJ 2014
Normal of above temps OK - rain to complex to get correct but mostly normal overall OK.
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