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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, 2021 Mar Apr May - compiled 4 June 2021
Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts
CPC/UKMO MONTH TEMP
EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp mean anomaly
CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
ECMWF
WMO March 2020 data
WMO combined multi model monthly - model probability OR anomaly.
Probability combined.
BOM monthly
Canada monthly
DWD monthly
CPTEC Brazil monthly
UKMO monthly
SEOUL monthly
Tokyo monthly
Toulouse monthly
Washington monthly
ECMWF monthly low resolution model probability of anomaly from WMO
CPC/UKMO MONTH PPN anomalies
EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS PPN rate mean anomaly
CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
JMA mean seal level pressure and anomaly
UKMO summary
Review of details looked for in seasonal forecast.
Temperature. Below average. (March was mostly above but April and May below)
Rainfall. Very mixed three three month average some places above others below - see UKMO map - For countries as a whole: Wales above average elsewhere below. UK below average. However will be looking for indications of very dry April and very wet May
Sunshine above average due very sunny April
Pressure. Above normal (The low pressure in May did no poffset the higher pressure in earlier months,
Follow link to
original forecast summary for detail of forecast.
DATA available in February for 2021 Mar Apr May
Original Summary - 190221 - Temperature: The overall indication for the Spring Season is for above average tempertures with the highest chance being in the S and E and lowest chance in the N and W. March could well see some colder spells with some models suggesting nearer average values. The strongest positive anomaly seems to be in April.
Precipitation: Mixed indications suggesting near or above normal for the season across the NW and W in particilar, elsewhere normal locally below. The strongest chance of below normal being in April across the S or SW of the UK and Eire (This could be a problem with showers not being captured at model resolution). Below normal seems to outnumber the above normal solutions by about 2 to 1 but not always in the same areas - but may indicate some longer than normal dry periods are possible.
Comment. Temperature forecast was very poor. Rainfall did better suggesting long dry periods and the three month season turned out ok ish but not convinced that this was more than luck. Did not capture the extreme dry April and extreme wet May.
A number of models picked up the dry April ECMWF WMO CMC Brazil NMME NASA and to a limted extent KMA .
Scoring will attempt to state good, fair, poor or no signal, based on three averages.
Comment: A number of models picked up the dry April
1. Russia (WMO): Temp poor. PPN poor Wales fair England elsewhere no signal .
2. USA - CFS2 : Temp poor. PPN fair .
3. UKMO Contingency: Temp poor. PPN fair
4. UKMO : Temp poor. PPN fair PMSL poor
5. USA - IRI : missing
6. KMA APCC : Temp poor. PPN no signal .
7. JMA : Temp poor. PPN poor. PMSL poor
8. NMME : Temp poor. PPN fair.
9. WMO multi : Temp poor. PPN fair.
10. BCC : Temp poor. PPN poor .
11. NASA : Temp poor. PPN fair .
12. Brazil: Temp fair . PPN fair
13. CanSips : Temp poor . PPN poor .
14. IMME : Temp poor. PPN poor .
15. Copernicus Temp poor. PPN poor . PMSL fair
16. CMCC Temp poor. PPN poor . PMSL poor
17: DWD Temp poor. PPN fair. PMSL good
18. EC Temp poor. PPN fair. PMSL good
19 JMA Temp poor. PPN poor . PMSL poor
20 UKMO Temp poor. PPN poor. PMSL poor
21. MF Temp poor . PPN poor. PMSL poor
22 NCEP Temp poor. PPN poor. PMSL poor
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