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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, 2020 February March APril - compiled 3 June 2020


Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts


CPC/UKMO MONTH TEMP


EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp mean anomaly

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
TN7 TN2 TN3
ECMWF
EC

WMO
WMO

UKMO
UKMO


CPC/UKMO MONTH PPN anomalies


EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS PPN rate mean anomaly

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
TN8 TN5 TN6 NASA JMA mean seal level pressure and anomaly


UKMO summary


Review of details looked for in seasonal forecast.
Temperature. Near average temperatures in March followed by above average values for April and May. In May this combined with a lot of sunny days to bring summer like weather to many parts especially the south of UK.

Rainfall. Apart from NW Scotland which had some wetter weather in May, for most parts Spring waas significantly drier than normal. May in parts of central England was the driest on record.

Pressure. was above average each month and for the season.



Follow link to original forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in February for 2020 March April May



Original Summary - 230220 - Strong signal for above average temperatures but given the very mild winter a colder than average spell seems likely some time in March/April. Models seem not to be able to predict colder intervals reliably. Rainfall is likely to be below normal in Eire and S of UK (especially first half of season) but perhaps above in NW Scotland and nearer normal elsewhere.

Comment: Above average temperatures were correct and March was cooler being near average. Rainfall was a little pessimistic given the extent of drier than average conditions but OK with the NW being the relatively wetter area.
Most models got the idea of above average temperatures but not the nearer average March. Dry signal could have been stronger but some ideas about the NW being the least dry was good.
Scoring (for the season unless stated) will attempt to state good, fair, poor or no signal.
1. Russia: Temp poor . PPN no signal .
2. USA - CFS2 : Temp good . PPN good .
3. UKMO Contingency: Temp good. PPN poor .
4. UKMO : Temp good. PPN mostly good . PMSL good
5. USA - IRI : Temp mostly good . PPN poor .
6. KMA APCC : Temp good. PPN no signal .
7. JMA : Temp good. PPN mostly good . PMSL good.
8. NMME : Temp good. PPN no signal .
9. WMO : Temp mostly good. Monthly data lacked less warm March PPN poor .
10. BCC : Temp mostly good. PPN good.
11. NASA - Temp fair . PPN poor .
12. Brazil: Temp poor . PPN poor PMSL poor..
13. CanSips : Temp fair . PPN poor .
14. SAWS: :
15. Copernicus Temp good . PPN poor . PMSL poor
16. EC Temp good. PPN poor . PMSL good
17. MF Temp good . PPN fair . PMSL fair
18. JAMSTEC: Temp good . PPN poor .
19: ECMWF (monthly) Temp: mostly good (March to warm) . PPN poor, fair in NW
20: CMCC Temp good . PPN poor . PMSL poor
21: DWD Temp poor. PPN fair . PMSL fair



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