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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, 2019 March April May - compiled 6 June 2019


Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts


CPC/UKMO MONTH TEMP




UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp mean anomaly

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
TN3 TN7 TN2

ECMWF
EC

UKMO
UKMO
CPC/UKMO MONTH PPN anomalies




UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS PPN rate mean anomaly

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
TN6 TN8 TN5

JMA mean seal level pressure and anomaly


UKMO summary


Review of details looked for in seasonal forecast.
Temperature. Season above average but May neaer normal locally cooler.

Rainfall. NW half of area, excluding the far NW of Scotland, above average for the season but NW Scotland and the SE below. Ongoing feature of below normal rain in parts of S and SE England. SW England resevoir levels low for the time of year.

Pressure. Slightly above average for season. Months near or above average lowest in the North in March and West in April. Strong SE pattern shown for April.



Follow link to original forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in February for March April May 2019


Original Summary - 170219 - TEMPERATURE: The majority of solutions (probably 90%) suggest about normal temepratures for the season as a whole. Monthly data hints at some areas being nearer normal but no agreement as to which months are more likely to be nearer normal. Colder than normal locations shown in the ECMWF graphics have little support from other models and EC tends to be a shade cool? Precipitation (PPN): The strongest signal for above normal rainfall for the season is for S Eire, Wales and SW parts of UK especially March. Otherwise near normal or below normal for season although some hints that parts of Scotland may be above normal at times.

Result:
Temperature: Most models forecast above normal temperatures but NCEP, CANSIPs and JMA captured the trend for a less mild May.

Precipitation: Good indication that March could be wetter and some idea that the season could be wetter in places but was oncorrect about the south/SW. Signal for below normal in places was correct but as usual exact location was not predicted well.

Please view graphics to compare month by month output.
Table below is for seasonal text forecast.

Scoring will attempt to state good, fair, poor or no signal.
Comment:
1. Russia: Temp fair . PPN fair .
2. USA - CFS2 : Temp good . PPN fair .
3. UKMO Contingency: Temp good . PPN no signal .
4. UKMO : Temp good . PPN fair . PMSL good
5. USA - IRI : Temp no signal . PPN good for NE Scotland elsewhere no signal .
6. KMA APCC : Temp good. PPN poor/no signal.
7. JMA : Temp good. PPN fair but got May good . PMSL poor
8. NMME : Temp poor. PPN poor .
9. IMME - no data recorded
10. BCC - Temp fair. PPN poor .
11. NASA - Temp poor PPN poor .
12. Brazil: Temp good. PPN poor PMSL poor.
13. CanSips : Temp good . PPN fair .
14. SAWS: : Temp good . PPN fair .
15. Copernicus Temp good . PPN poor . PMSL poor
16. EC Temp fair . PPN poor . PMSL poor
17. MF Temp good. PPN poor . PMSL fair
18. JAMSTEC: Temp poor. PPN poor.
19: KMA: Temp good. PPN poor PMSL fair.
20: 21: CMCC Temp poor. PPN poor. PMSL poor.
22: DWD Temp good. PPN poor.. PMSL poor.



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