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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, Spring - March April May 2018 - compiled 6 June 2018


Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts


CPC/UKMO MONTH TEMP and PPN anomalies








Review of details looked for in seasonal forecast.
Temperature for the season was slightly above normal but will be looking for a signal of a change to above normal after a cold March and stronger indication for well above normal in May.
Precipitaion for the season was below normal in Scotland and near normal in N Ireland but above normal elsewhere despite a drier May in other areas.
Pressure pressure for the season was below normal although ending up above normal in May.



Follow link to original forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in Februaryr for 2018 March April May


Original Summary - 170218 - Models were slow to pick up on the start of a colder than normal sequence in February but now suggest March will be near or a little colder than normal, followed by a trend towards normal or above normal through April and May. Overall near normal temperaure for the season.Good. The trend to less cold was correct although season ended up slightly milder except in N Ireland (near normal) Pecipitation may well be below normal to start the period especially in the North but with a trend to above normal, especially for May. Little agreement between systems for loction of above normal rainfall. Overall precipitation near normal for the season.Fair. Trend was OK but March was much wetter and May was drier in many places although heavy rain/thunderstorms brought some locally above normal rain in central areas of England and E Wales.

Scoring will attempt to state good, fair, poor or no signal.
No signal for any centre for less above normnal/near normal in July after warmer May/June.

1. Russia: Temp Fair . PPN poor .
2. USA - CFS2 : Temp Fair (had some trends ok). PPN Good from mid month issues poor earlier.
3. UKMO Contingency: Temp poor . PPN poor .
4. UKMO : Temp poor . PPN good . PMSL good .
5. USA - IRI : Temp poor . PPN poor .
6. KMA APCC : Temp poor . PPN poor . PMSL poor
7. JMA : Temp fair . PPN poor . PMSL poor
8. NMME : Temp poor . PPN poor .
9. IMME - Temp poor . PPN poor .
10. BCC - Temp poor . PPN poor.
11. NASA - Temp poor . PPN poor .
12. Brazil: Temp poor . PPN poor . PMSL good
13. CanSips : Temp poor . PPN poor .
14. SAWS: : Temp No signal . PPN No signal .
15. Copernicus Temp poor . PPN poor . PMSL poor
16. EC Temp poor . PPN poor . PMSL poor
17. MF Temp poor . PPN poor . PMSL poor
18. JAMSTEC: Temp poor . PPN poor .
19: KMA: Temp poor . PPN poor . PMSL fair
20: EC(US) Temp poor . PPN fair . PMSL good




UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly





CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs - see graphic for data date.
TN3 TN7 TN2

TN6 TN8 TN5

EC


DATA available in January for 2018 March April May

Mostly poor but some indication of rainfall trend in E3 CFS2 later in month but not earlier NMME. Colder March not indicated many got season above normal.



DATA available in December for 2018 March April May

Mostly poor but some indication of drier spells. Colder March not indicated many got season above normal OK.

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