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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, - compiled 5th June 2017


Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts


CPC/UKMO MONTH TEMP and PPN anomalies








UKMO there are some issues with regards rainfall at the end of April/start of May across Devon. there was around 50mm of rain spanning this period which depending on whether the UK 09 to 09 periods are used or 00-24 may be in the April or May record as there was around 20mm of rain between 00 abd 09Z on the 1st of May. Overall though the idea that the trhee months where milder and mostly drier is te basis of the evaluation for the season. Month to month data looking for drioer April signal and wetter ion SE in May.
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Follow link to original forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in Feb for 2017 March April May Spring 2017


Comment on the summary: Good signal for above average temperatures. Monthly data less of a help. Rainfall monthly detail was not good but got some idea about drier in NE Scotland in March, did not get the drier April or the wetter in SE in May. Overall poor. Pressure trend fair with lower pressure less likely later but did not get the overall above average pressure.

Scoring will attempt to state good, fair, poor or no signal.
1. Russia: Temp poor PPN fair for SW England elsewhere poor.
2. USA - CFS2 : Temp Fair to good (slightly cool but suggested above normal in monthly) PPN poor
3. UKMO Contingency: Temp good PPN fair due to clustering near ot below normal but not the main signal
4. UKMO : Temp good PPN poor PMSL good
5. USA - IRI : Temp good PPN no signal
6. KMA APCC : Temp good PPN poor
7. JMA : Temp good PPN fair mostly because May otherwise poor PMSL signal good trend
8. NMME : Temp good PPN fair. Monthly PPN good trend tends to be slightly over wet! Not so good with May
9. IMME : Temp good PPN fair
10. BCC : Temp good PPN fair good start but not May
11. Brazil : Temp fair PPN fair
12. NASA : Temp good PPN poor
13. CanSips : Temp good PPN poor (fair trend March to April)
14. SAWS: Temp PPN


CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP N/a





CFS2 TEMP



CFS2 PPN




NMME MAX and MIN n/a






NMME Temp:





NMME PPN rate:




NMME TEMP PROBS:



NMME PPN:




UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly





DATA available in January 2017 March April May

Summary gave good signal for temperature also for drier April and drier overall. NMME quite good with temp and PPN. BCC China good.


DATA available in December 2016 for 2017 March April May

Poor rainfall signal in summary but temps good. NMME poor rain. BCC China best with PPN. Temps mostly good.


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