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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, March April May 2016 - compiled 3 June 2016


Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts

UKMO


CPC MONTH and THREE MONTH (Graphics added when available) TEMP and PPN anomalies





IRI statistic link based on El Nini, suggested normal and in places above normal rain. UKMO shows the wetter area in a slightly different location and IRI stats missed the drier areas. For the UK as a whole near or fractionally below temp and rain shown by stats.

IRI climate impacts.


Follow link to orignal forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in Feb 2016 for Mar Apr May 2016


Comment on the summary: Overall idea of near normal tempersature was ok but the month to month detail less good, April as chilly (see UKMO Max and MIN anomaly) and May was milder. Rainfall again good with the SW drier later and to some extent the idea of above normal rain was OK although the areas affected were not as clearly definded. Rainfall is often very variable across regions.
1. Russia: Poor (initial forecast output was corrupt)
2. USA - CFS2 :  Normal temp was OK but the month to month data was misleading. Rainfall not especially good but had some idea of th S being wetter than the N relative to average.
3. UKMO Contingency:  Temperatures reasonable. Precipitation for whole of UK was near or slightly below hence not good but whole UK figures not very helpful.
4. UKMO : Temps too warm rainfall not good
5. USA - IRI :  as usual over prediction of above normal temps. No help with rain.
6. KMA APCC :  slightly warm with temps but good indication for rain
7. JMA :  not very good.
8. NMME :  - Month by month, temperature a good guide perhaps a little warm for SW England early on. Rainfall gave good steer for Mar and April perhaps less so in May, probably slightly over startes the risk.
9. IMME -  Temps fair. Good signal about rainfall in S and E England Mar and May

12. BCC -  Temp OK  PPN not good
11. Brazil - not helpful
12. NASA - Temp correct trend to warmer May but overall detail not good. Rain not good.
13. SAWS - Poor temps. Rainfall below normal was not good for England.
14: CanSips - Some fairly good indications about temp. Early rainfall OK not so good for May



CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP 080216





CFS2 TEMP



CFS2 PPN




NMME MAX and MIN






NMME TEMP:





NMME PPN rate:




NMME TEMP PROBS:



NMME PPN:




UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly 080216




200hPa height anomalty NMME and CFS2 with mean CFS2 200hPa data 1 deg grib 080216



DATA available in Jan 2016 for Mar Apr May 2016

Summary: 13Jan2016 - Unsettled with low pressure often over or crossing the UK but more ridging probable in May. Above normal temperatures, especially in the S and E of UK but with lower probabilities in the NW. Rainfall fairly good agreement for above normal, strongest signal in March lower indication for above normal in May
Pressure was below normal over all of UK in April and less so in May overall slightly below in S and slightly above normal in N for Season. Temps were mostl near normal slightly below in S and slightly above in N. Rainfall was above normal in most of England but near normal taking UK as a whole.

Later runs of CFS2 gave best idea of rain but overall not much to choose from. CnSips temps were good and IMME rainfall.


DATA available in December 2015 for Mar Apr May 2016

Most models suggest near normal temps or a little above hence slightly on the warm side, Rainfall hints at the wetter parts of England in NMME and IMME.



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