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Verification of Experimental Seasonal Summary Forecast for UK area, March April May 2015 - compiled 10 June 2015


Met Office Anomaly Graphs
Met Office Monthly Anomaly Charts

UKMO
TEMP: Near normal overall (1981-2010 but above normal if compared to 1961-1990 period). The normal masks the milder earlier months and the colder May although the E of England was nearer normal). The colder May was often due to lower Max temps although in the N mins were lower too.
MAR UK slightly above normal - slightly above in N but mostly near normal (slightly stronger signal for above in Max temps in N and below in min temps N Ireland Wles and SW England)
APR UK above normal - N Ireland and NW UK also E Anglia near normal elsewhere above. Max temps anoms above normal all areas. Min temps below for N Wales northwards
MAY UK
PPN: Overall much of the S and E of UK was drier than normal
MAR UK normal normal - W Scotland and parts NW England wetter, S and E of England and NE Scotland drier.
APR UK below normal - mostly normal in N and NW of UK and Eire elsewhere below normal
MAY UK Parts of the S and E were near normal (CPC says below) elsewhere above normal


CPC MONTH and THREE MONTH (Graphics added when available) TEMP and PPN anomalies







Follow link to orignal forecast summary for detail of forecast.

DATA available in Feb 2015 for Mar Apr May 2015


Comment on the summary: The overall signal for near normal temps was correct. PPN not so good although hinted at SE being drier.
1. Russia: Hinted at colder in NW but otherwise temp and rain distribution not a help.
2. USA - CFS2 : Overall near normal temp OK but month by month detail lacking. PPN data 26th good overall distribtion and fairly good month by month detail other runs not so good.
3. UKMO Contingency: Season and March temps OK. March ppn good idea of split but season not correct.
4. UKMO :Temp good idea of colder in N and W but detail not good. PPN good with NW to be above but other detail not so good.
5. USA - IRI : Temps as normal overly warm but PPN indication of drier in SE
6. KMA APCC : Temp fair PPN poor
7. JMA : Temp and PPN not a help
8. NMME : not good for season temp and PPN BUT month by month got the idea of Apr being milder than March or May. Month by month PPN not a help.
9. IMME - not a help.
12. BCC - not a help incorrect distribution of temp and ppn.
11. Brazil - not a help
12. NASA - seaon temp OK but ppn not good. Month by month detail not good.

CFS2 mean TEMP (MAX MIN not shown)



CFS2 mean PPN


NMME MAX and MIN



NMME TEMP probs


NMME PPN: Probs



DATA available in Jan 2015 for Mar Apr May 2015


Summary: Comment 200115 was OK both with temp and ppn. Models no one stands out as being better. NMME cooler to W indication and hint at warmer in E of England was fair.


DATA available in December 2014 for Mar Apr May 2015

CFS2 graphics got idea of APR being milder than Mar or May but not the colder May. NASA output was probably the best for season but month by month detail incorrect.



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